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Read this article, which tries to make a historical case for agreeing a semi permanent neutral position for Ukraine, using the example of Belgium as what can be achieved. Seems profoundly flawed on a number of levels.
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RAND Corporation
@RANDCorporation
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"The Istanbul communiqué could point the way to a resolution of the dilemma of Ukraine's status as an in-between state, transforming geopolitical rivalry over its alignment into mutual commitment to its long-term security." foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai
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First, Ukraine’s neutrality is to be purchased at an enormous cost. Ukraine will have to acquiesce in real (if not legal) terms to Russia keeping all parts of Ukraine it has seized. It’s not even to revert back to the 24 Feb border, it’s to take everything it holds now.
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Ukraine’s future guarantees of security are basically purchase by it not being able to try and take back the territory Russia militarily holds. Why Ukraine would accept this is not clear, but it’s also very different than the situation with Belgium.
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Belgium was created as a neutralist state in the 1830s. It was a way of helping a new state establish itself. What is happening now is an attempt to force Ukraine to accept the illegal seizure of its land by Russia in exchange for a security guarantee that it already had.
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It’s the exact opposite really, helping create something new as opposed to legitimising invasion and ethnic cleansing. It also avoids the question that the populations in the territories seized since Feb 24 have no desire to join Russia and many have been killed by Russia.
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The other great problem with the article is that it assumes it’s deal is actually some sort of concession to Russia, and that Russia might even not recognise it on the assumption the US would never really come to Ukraine’s aid.
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So this later article reads like a new article for appeasement using a flawed and misunderstood historical argument and based on assumptions of Russian military strength that have shown to be false. Another form of fantasy realism.
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It's not a good article. What strikes me is that the appeasers are getting too much air time, & are made to seem more prevalent than they actually are. Where I live in Canada, nearly every home has Ukrainian flag in the window. The only talk is of beating Russia.
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Same in the UK, everyone wants them to win. And look at the public vote in Eurovision. People are with Ukraine.
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Who funds Rand? Non-profit but that’s not the point. Get up some polarised views and maybe the funding just appears like morning dew. From some bank account or other…….
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It didn't even work out very well for Belgium, did it? I suppose Foreign Affairs likes to have a "discussion" on everything, but when there is only one tenable course, morally and intellectually, there isn't room for one. They'd do better to focus on Russia after defeat.
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Russia would never abide by it. They know already that NATO will not come to Ukraine's aid due to nuclear deterrent. Russia would just use it to dramatically weaken Ukraine and rearm. Then it would invade again. Nothing in history suggests this would work.
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Thank you for taking the time to dismantle and debunk these arguments. The situation for Ukraine is difficult enough as it is, I find these types of arguments, which tend to be in Russia's favour, increasingly hard to read.
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Why should Russia be trusted to respect this arrangement? The reason no other country has boots on the ground in Ukraine now is the risk, if small, of nuclear retaliation. Why would Russia not make the exact same threat again in a few years? Unrealistic.
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The Budapest memorandum (1994), Helsinki Final Act (1975), the Charter of Paris (1990), the NATO-Russia Founding Act (1997) and the Charter for European Security (1999) - all signed in bad faith by the Russian Federation…and some people want Ukraine to commit to another!? 🤦🏻‍♂️
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