It's from the right event. Image has been floating around the internet and the CCP has been playing whack a mole with it.
The leaker posted it himself on discord after being banned. He's the only one who can see that red banner.
the newest russian penetrators have the tip that seperates if it hits abrams upper glacis, then penetrates it. the upper plate is only 65ish mm. the newest 125 goes right through it. it is segmented also.
APFSDS works diffrerently from APCBC. If russia using a ballistic cap tip, it does not have momentum to change direction as its going too fast. They better off using cased- telescoped apfsds.
As cool as it sounds to talk about classified leaks, I'd be somewhat surprised if any of this data was not already known by the opposition intelligence/defence communities.