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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Replying to
@vtchakarova
There won't be any peace negotiations no matter how often Germany & France (small-size countries in Europe have no geopolitical weight) call Putin. Once Russia establishes control over Donbas & reaches its war goals in the this phase, Moscow will unilaterally declare ceasefire.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Preventing Russia from winning in this critical phase of the war requires the heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine to sustain the Russian attacks. If Ukraine has to give up on territories in Donbas for the sake of Western appeasement, this won't stop the war. On the opposite.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
If Russia achieves victory in the 2nd phase of the war & declares unilaterally ceasefire, which will be welcomed by France and Germany, this would mean not only defeat for Ukraine but freezing the conflict until Moscow replenish forces and strikes back in other parts of Ukraine.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
In the meantime, Russia will play for time using pressure on Western decision makers because of skyrocketing energy and food prices amid the upcoming winter. Russia has linked critical commodities (energy, fertilizers, food) exports to the lifting of the Western sanctions.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
For Ukraine, the choices remain between a war and complete subjugation in the long run. For Russia, however, the choices were between short war (it failed in the first phase of the war) and long war (the current scenario). While the West presents the choices between war & peace.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Moscow seeks to build and consolidate its “sphere of influence” based on a union between Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, which would help it become a major player with significant power projection and new role in the European security architecture.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
If President Vladimir Putin manages to subjugate Ukraine, this would fulfil Russia’s geopolitical ambitions to revive a post-imperial state as a great power with a significantly improved position in global politics.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Russia’s geostrategic approach pursues a vertical (north-south) extension of its geopolitical & geoeconomic interests, encompassing the Arctic Ocean & Barents Sea, spanning its “near abroad” in Eastern Europe & South Caucasus, & reaching into Eurasia, West Asia, & North Africa.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Russia is slowly but surely shifting its centre of gravity from an interdependence with Western Europe to Eurasia, South Asia (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan), & even the Indo-Pacific region. Thus, Moscow seeks to use the geopolitical window of opportunity amid growing bifurcation.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
For this reason, Putin is eager to close the chapter on the “sphere of influence” in Eastern Europe by reshaping the European security architecture once and for all, to turn his attention to the above-mentioned geopolitical and geoeconomic areas in the long run.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Against this geopolitical background, Russia is striving to become an indispensable power, without which neither the US nor China will be able to win the systemic competition against each other in the long run. None of them wants to see Russia as a partner in the rival's bloc.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Russia has seized the opportunity to successively build a new modus vivendi of systemic coordination with China in relevant key areas of shared geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, since 2014 under sustained US pressure and ongoing Western sanctions.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
In fact, Russian President Putin would have not launched full-scale war against Ukraine if he had not relied on this strategic modus vivendi of systemic coordination with China established and deepened since 2014. This was largely overlooked as a factor in Europe. (#Dragonbear)
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
The Russian narrative on launching the war against Ukraine to prevent NATO expansion collapsed with the application by Sweden and Finland for membership. Ukraine was invaded by Russia not because it was unilaterally striving to join NATO but because it wasn't NATO member.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Ukraine’s subjugation is not the final goal of Putin’s plans. If he’s successful with the war on Ukraine, he’ll annex further parts of the country & create a geopolitical Union with Ukraine, Belarus, Transnistria & two republics in Georgia to impose a new European security order.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Thirty years period of post-Cold War European Security Architecture is gone as one of the most important pillars of the global order. Russia seeks to capitalize on the bifurcation of the Global System with two major blocs (US vs China) competing over the fate of internat. order.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
The Dragonbear (China+Russia) is a tactical asymmetrical modus vivendi but Russia as a junior partner of China could fully reshape the European Security Architecture while keeping the West’s attention away from China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific if Moscow is successful in Ukraine.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
Putin is trying to capitalise on the current geopolitical context. He pursues a three-dimensional approach: 1) a war against Ukraine, which threatens the country’s very existence as a sovereign state, & Russia’s new geopolitical project of a union state with Belarus & Ukraine;
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
2) against the European Union, which, despite the most severe sanctions against Moscow, is not a real military counterweight to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and is thus rendered geopolitically irrelevant; and finally,
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
3) against China and the US, in that Moscow is significantly raising the heft of its future participation in the systemic rivalry between the two countries.
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
If the period between the 1st & 2nd World War was only an interruption, the same is also true for the period between the First & Second Cold War. Indeed, Russia’s war is the manifestation of the beginning of the Second Cold War, which is evolving around these important trends:
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
1) the bifurcation of the global system; 2) the ongoing systemic competition between the US and China in all strategic areas, influenced by a mutual decoupling of the leading socioeconomic networks; 3) increasing tensions between the two Asian giants, China and India;
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Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
4) a possible US withdrawal from West Asia due to growing energy self-sufficiency &, in the long term, from Europe due to a shifting focus towards #IndoPacific; & 5) fluid, ad-hoc geopolitical constellations between regional powers, navigating btw US & China to avoid taking sides
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Honcharuk 🇺🇦
@notenoughltrs
Replying to
@vtchakarova
Well put. Nothing I hate more that this wishful thinking of "give Putin Donbass and he will stop" no he won't! You already made that mistake with Crimea, what now? Help Ukraine win, help it rebuild itself, welcome it to EU, this is how to stop Russians - strong democratic Ukraine
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Richard St Ruth
@RSR108
Replying to
@vtchakarova
WOW, while the UK media is running around after cupcakes, thankfully we have Ms
@vtchakarova
bringing us genuine insight. Great 🧵🇺🇦 on Russia’s aims. #Realpolitik #geopolitical and #geoeconomics. Hate
@BorisJohnson
all you like, but here’s why #Ukraine love him. Must read 👏
Quote Tweet
Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
·
Not all realists share #Mearsheimer views on Russia's war against Ukraine. I am positioned in the #realpolitik corner while using #geopolitics and #geoeconomics as the main pillars of #foresight.This is my assessment since Dec 2021 (see pinned tweet) on Russia's plan. Thread🧵👇
Show this thread
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Zebriod
@zebriod
Replying to
@vtchakarova
#Putin has weakened all FOUR elements of Russian power. Particularly his military. If I was India I would be questioning 2000 T-72 tanks they have. On Finance his war has very much sped up the move from oil, hurting longterm
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Bill Jones
@stonesshows
Replying to
@vtchakarova
Your view seems to be optimistic for Russia’s future while other analysts like Friedman and Zeihan seem to think Russia is crumbling and taking its last breathes.
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Daniel Garcia
@Danciagar
She talks like Russia can get out of the massive economic hole open under its feet, power projection requires economical power to sustain it. Even if they take Donbas, Russia's economy is not going anywhere but into darkness.
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Tez 🇨🇦 🇬🇧 🇦🇺 🇳🇿
@Tez11288903
Replying to
@vtchakarova
What Velina misses with #Mearsheimer argument. Is China is a peer competitor like nothing the US has competed with before and is many times more power than the Soviet Union. The US will need Russia’s help to contain it but has instead bottled it. Pushed Russia to China.
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Ollie_1811
@1811Ollie
Replying to
@vtchakarova
Do you agree with global strategist David Murrin that the U.K. will actively become a greater player in Europe now that France and Germany seem to be stepping back? Is Eurovision a small sign that U.K. is gaining popularity in Europeans eyes?
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