Holy shit, China is even more fucked than I thought...
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Further a third of farmers in Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang can't get fertilizer or seeds for the spring crops.
Because said fertilizer and seed is stuck in cargo holds in Shanghai.
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Authorities are also sealing off access to rural villages. Meaning the seed and fertilizer which got off the ships can't get to the cities.
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But, its not like that would matter anyways.
Local authorities are arresting farmers for being on their tractors.
In a field.
By themselves.
Due to Zero COVID policies.
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And now truckers are just dumping food on the side of the road because they're being told they will have to be locked down in their trucks for weeks if they enter the city.
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Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Shanghai, Anhui, Hebei, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Jilin, Guangdong, and Fujian have all gone a step further and shut down access to highways entirely.
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Jiangsu
-84 M people
-Central coal import hub
-Central silk production hub
-Important source of fish
-Important pharmaceuticals manufacturing hub
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Zhejiang
-64 M people
-Important source of automotive parts
-Central export manufacturing hub
-Central textiles and clothing hub
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Shandong
-101 M people
-Important source of fruits and vegetables
-One of the few major sources of domestic oil and natural gas
-Single largest agricultural export region in China
-Heavily dependent on Korean and Japanese tourism
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Shanghai
-25 M people
-Financial hub for China, vital source of hard currency to secure importation of coal and food
-Primary gateway for imports into China
-Central ship building node
-Central node for the Real Estate sector which local governments have relied on for revenue
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Anhui
-64 M people
-Vital source of grain and coal
-Central steel hub
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Hebei
-74 M people
-Surrounds Beijing
-Primary industry is feeding Beijing with wheat and maize and millet
-Central node in petroleum and coal industry
-Central node for iron processing and steel production
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Liaoning
-145 M people
-Central node for iron, steel, and tool and dye work
-Primary node for mineral extraction across Northeast China
-Central node for machine parts for light industry such as textile manufacturing and food processing
-Core node for agriculture
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Shaanxi
-39 M people
-3rd Largest producer of coal, oil, and natural gas in China
-Key livestock and ranching node
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Jilin
-24 M people
-Key source of rice and lamb
-Key source of lumber
-Primary source of traditional medicines
-Central node for shale oil extraction
-Large molybdenum deposits
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Guangdong
-126 M people
-Second largest subdivision economy on the planet by PPP
-Second most important cargo hub in China
-Central node in food processing
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Fujian
-41 M people
-Key source of seafood
-Will be staging ground for China's invasion of Taiwan
-Military logistics a major industry
-Heavily dependent on imports from other provinces due to deliberate lack of investment ahead of future war with Taiwan
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Seems Bloomberg has picked up statistically significant amounts of chatter regarding food shortages coming out of major cities in China.
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Astrid Wilde ☼
@astridwilde1
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Replying to @mattparlmer
Been seeing a more than incidental number of pictures of food dumped on the side of the road in China. Baidu congestion data has also been spooky this month. Seeing a lot of people on Chinese social media talking about not having enough food, even in Shenzhen.
![Image](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="680" height="452"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
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For all the folks reading this and assuming some master plan, Xi is facing his third term.
If he fails in his bid to secure that term, he's a dead man. And if he admits he was wrong about Zero COVID, he looks sufficiently weak he may lose his bid.
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There is this myth in the west that the CCP is some forward looking chessplayer able to look far into the future. The reality is they are just as reactive as Western powers - and are more likely to choose wrong due to information isolation.
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The logic of dictatorship turns subordinates and advisors into christmas tigers and mires leaders in the sunk cost fallacy.
Which is what we're seeing here.
COVID isn't a zombie plague.
Xi isn't trying to fuck over the world.
He's trying to stay alive. Literally.
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Replying to
My sources are here, feel free to check my data.
Understand I'm extrapolating based on the way China censors their media and how much of the reality of this is subject to laws making hard data into state secrets.
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The volume of truck traffic in and out of the agricultural heartlands are down 87%.
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Replying to
The authorities HAVE to understand the consequences of their actions , right,??
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Replying to
As much as I'd love to believe this, I wonder how much of it is accurate...
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As accurate as it can be given the way news filters out of China and how you have to interpret it.
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I'm collating the information in a substack article. It should be up before the end of the day.
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Show replies
Replying to
Its almost like the 2020 is happening in 2022. F'd is about the only appropriate adjective
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There was no avoiding the virus. You can only delay the confrontation to a point in the future when you are older, and more likely to succumb to it.
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Replying to
Jesus! And I thought the lockdown in Shanghai was bad.
This is sooo much worse.
This makes Jonestown look marginally reasonable by comparison. Unfortunately, they can’t isolate themselves from the world economy, so I have no doubt this will trigger a worldwide downturn.
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The attack on the food supply is global
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What can you do, to have a elementary leader instructing all directions to the world?
Pretty much
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