body { -ms-overflow-style: scrollbar; overflow-y: scroll; overscroll-behavior-y: none; } .errorContainer { background-color: #FFF; color: #0F1419; max-width: 600px; margin: 0 auto; padding: 10%; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; } .errorButton { margin: 3em 0; } .errorButton a { background: #1DA1F2; border-radius: 2.5em; color: white; padding: 1em 2em; text-decoration: none; } .errorButton a:hover, .errorButton a:focus { background: rgb(26, 145, 218); } .errorFooter { color: #657786; font-size: 80%; line-height: 1.5; padding: 1em 0; } .errorFooter a, .errorFooter a:visited { color: #657786; text-decoration: none; padding-right: 1em; } .errorFooter a:hover, .errorFooter a:active { text-decoration: underline; } #placeholder, #react-root { display: none !important; } body { background-color: #FFF !important; }

JavaScriptを使用できません。

このブラウザではJavaScriptが無効になっています。引き続きtwitter.comを利用するため、JavaScriptを有効にするか、サポートされているブラウザに切り替えてください。サポートされているブラウザのリストについては、ヘルプセンターをご覧ください。

ヘルプセンター

利用規約プライバシーポリシー Cookieのポリシー Imprint 広告情報 © 2022 Twitter, Inc.

「いま」起きていることを見つけよう

Twitterなら、「いま」起きていることをいち早くチェックできます。

アカウント作成

スレッド

会話

Why Russia is losing this war? First I'll discuss why Russia *is* losing. Then I'll give my version of how it could happen. The key to understanding lies in the Soviet/Russian military doctrine. It gives context for current events and helps to predict further Russian actions

午前2:16 · 2022年4月6日Typefully

件のリツイート

件の引用ツイート

件のいいね

返信先:

さん

Maps of Russian Federal News Agency show a massive retreat. Apparently, Russia abandoned its initial plans to capture Kyiv and take control of Ukraine. Thus political goals of Z-operation can't be achieved. Regime change and (partial?) annexation of Ukraine are not gonna happen

28

436

4,328

What is even more interesting, the tone of description has changed . As you see, until April 2 they had been posting maps of "successes (успехи) of the Special Operation". Since April 2 - of its "execution" (проведение). Indeed, this rapid retreat doesn't allow to claim success

5

318

3,786

How did Russians explain the retreat? Colonel General Fomin told: "We decided to radically, for several times decrease our military activities on Kyiv and Chernihiv directions. We assume that Kyiv will take corresponding decisions and create conditions for future cooperation"

メディアを再生できません。

再読み込み

34

292

3,263

That doesn't mean deescalation however. PRmaxer Shoygu reported that the first stage of Special Operation is "successfully completed". Military capacities of Ukrainian army weakened and thus Russia can concentrate its effort on its main goal - "liberation of Donbass"

22

231

3,031

Some already congratulated Russia with its success, concluding that "the goals of Special Operation were more limited than we had thought". That's a textbook copium. The initially declared Z-goal has not been achieved, thus whatever has been achieved is portrayed as the real goal

30

1,269

9,749

Many pro-Russian observers argue that the retreat from the North is a genius move: Russians are regrouping for a major assault in the East. That's not wrong. Indeed, Russians *will* attack in the East, in Donbass. However, these analysts seem to make virtue out of a necessity

20

281

3,721

Russian retreat from the North doesn't look as a premeditated move. I don't have data but judging from the photos of abandoned Russian vehicles t.me/russian_losses they are fleeing leaving whatever that can't move fast: artillery, rocket launchers, air defense systems

メディアを再生できません。

再読み込み

30

500

4,781

How could it happen? To answer this question, we'll need to figure out how did the hostilities go *before* the Russian retreat. What territory did the Russians control? Analysts mocked such "just the roads" maps of Russian-controlled territory as an obvious pro-Ukrainian copium

10

268

3,396

And yet, "just the roads" maps were quite accurate and the analysts were wrong. Strelkov debunks "contiguous territory" myth and argues that at least in the North Russians controlled only the "long narrow appendixes along the roads". Russian, indeed, controlled "just the roads"

メディアを再生できません。

再読み込み

38

613

4,679

According to Strelkov, Russians didn't control the territory between the northern highways and haven't isolated cities like Chernihiv and Sumy. Thus they risked repeating a scenario of the Winter War 1940 when much smaller Finnish forces isolated and decimated the Soviet invaders

13

401

4,129

Finns destroyed the Soviet troops using guerilla tactics in winter. Ukrainians will soon have an advantage of using similar tactics in summer, during зеленка, "the green". Trees being covered with leaves will give an upper hand to the Ukrainian guerillas over the Russian regulars

24

508

5,145

Strelkov concludes that Russians have no choice but to retreat from the North in order to regroup and attack again in Donbass (you see Russians retreating from the Sumy area. On this northeastern direction Russian retreat seems to be more organised than in Kyiv or Chernyhiv)

メディアを再生できません。

再読み込み

10

278

3,256

"But honestly I doubt that after losing the golden first month of the war, our troops will manage to surround and destroy the Ukrainian force in Donbass. Unfortunately I see that Ukrainian military commandment is acting an order of magnitude more competently than the Russian one"

12

316

3,716

How could it happen? How could seemingly so much superior Russian army fail in Ukraine miserably? Of course, many argue it didn't fail at all. Coincidentally, those very people usually predicted a Ukrainian collapse within few days or weeks. Now they convenienty forgot it ofc

19

321

3,926

The failure of many analysts to correctly predict the course of Z-war resulted from three factors. First, they greatly overestimated (or rather misunderstood) the Russian-Soviet army. Second, they underestimated the Ukrainian one. Third, they ignored the Russian political goals

18

337

3,769

Russian army is just superficially reformed Soviet army. And the Soviet army was a multitask tool designed for: 1. Winning the nuclear war 2. Picking potatoes 3. Pacifying satellite states Consider that multitask tools are usually not *that* great in either of their functions

55

772

5,193

Soviet army was designed for the nuclear war. Thus all the army branches were developed for the war that would involve mass employment of nukes. Which is completely different from a conventional war. Let me illustrate this difference on example of a Soviet IFV - БМП-1

7

227

2,822

Twitterを使ってみよう

今すぐ登録して、タイムラインをカスタマイズしましょう。

Appleのアカウントで登録

電話番号またはメールアドレスで登録

By signing up, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, including Cookie Use.

トレンド

いまどうしてる？

国際ニュース

ライブ

更新：ロシアの国連人権理事国資格を停止するための決議案を日本時間7日午後11時から採決国連総会

音楽 · トレンド

きょもほく表紙

トレンドトピック: 渡米直前SP

日本のトレンド

うる星やつら

トレンドトピック: 宮野真守、面堂終太郎

withnews

今朝

【withnews】「彫刻家を父に持つとこうなるんだよ」3歳長女の色鉛筆にサプライズ　娘の反応は…！

ニュース

今日

「南海トラフ地震」に関する基本情報

さらに表示