Hiroshi Nishiura
Hiroshi Nishiura
4,076 Tweets
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Hiroshi Nishiura
@nishiurah
Theoretical epidemiologist.
Hiroshi Nishiura’s Tweets
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Fewer recipients of convalescent plasma had progression of Covid-19–associated illness leading to hospitalization. nej.md/3DjIPll
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3 big Omicron myths, by
X Coronavirus is now endemic
X Coronavirus is evolving to be milder
X The vaccination program is over
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Die schafft in einem umfassenden Abschlussbericht Transparenz. Obwohl von den Medien gerne als “bundesrätliche Task Force” tituliert, kam es zwischen Wissenschaftler:innen und Gesamtbundesrat nur sporadisch zu einem Austausch. 1/2 sciencetaskforce.ch/en/abschlussbe
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Looks like many countries don't have a plan for future COVID variants beyond 1) hoping they're not inherently worse than Omicron and 2) hoping existing vaccines/boosters are effective as they were against Omicron.
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Our new study published on vaccine hesitancy in Hong Kong from November 2020 through to July 2021 by Zoe Xiao and colleagues
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Join the next webinar where we will discuss applying contact data and matrices to #COVID19 modelling.
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30 March
16:30 GMT
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30 March
16:30 GMT
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I am going to be giving a seminar on evolutionary drivers of AMR on March 31st at 12:00 EST. The seminar is being hosted by Harvard, but anybody can join if they follow the link.
![Infectious Disease Epidemiology Seminar Series, logos of Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics and Harvard Chan School of Public Health](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="899" height="281"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
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いる僕の見解（というか業界は知っている）です。慣れてきた仕事の中で世論のために勝手に矜持を見せると辞めることになります（そして僕のように振舞うしかない）。元々文書も〇〇〇会議で出したかったはず。悲惨なのは言論ばかり熱して、伝播の詳細機構にMeticulousに向かい合えていないこと。 2/2
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エアロゾルを言ったり記述したりしてこなかったわけではないけど、正式ステートメントみたいなのはそうですよね。そういうのが慢性化している公的組織はたくさんあるように思います。ある程度「頭のおかしいもの」を受け入れないと感染研ではやっていけない、というのが本音を吐かせてもらって 1/2
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小曽根 薫（PPM）
@zonexkaoru
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上部構造のせいだと西浦先生は仰りたいようだが、それで云えないようなら専門家の矜持も何もない、と批判されても仕方ないのでは。
感染研の先生方は、そういった組織の論理に対して抵抗したんですか？（であるならば前段は撤回しますが） twitter.com/nishiurah/stat…
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デイジーなんて、そりゃああんまりですよ
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“Conspiracy theories do not exist in a vacuum. They amplify existing fears and ideas about people’s place in the world.”
nature.com/articles/d4158
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Researchers who tracked the replacement of #Delta by #Omicron in England in December 2021 report large falls in infection prevalence among adults who received a booster shot and vaccinated older children compared with unvaccinated younger children. fcld.ly/2fadygb
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Le taux d'incidence continue de nettement grimper... mais le taux de positivité aussi, et il dépasse désormais la barre de 30%.
Ceci signifie que le nombre de cas positifs grimpe plus fortement que le nombre de tests réalisés chaque jour. #Covid19
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More support for the potency of 1 shot with infection-induced immunity
"We observe that vaccination induces higher peak titers and improves durability in recovered [Prior Covid] as compared to naïve vaccinees."
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書き方がおかしいと思いますが、Aerosol transmissionが明示的に書かれてこなかったのは感染研とか専門家判断ではなく〇〇〇の問題ですよね。。。感染研が言えなかったのは直接の下部機関的な扱いの影響があって（以下略）
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The ONS figures have always estimated compliance with self isolation as much higher than other studies (such as CORSAIR) for many reasons - most notably that it only asks people who are already in the test & trace system and hence more adherent.
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Todays ONS data shows that, since the requirement to self-isolate was lifted, the proportion of infected people who aren't isolating has almost doubled from 20% to 35%. Note also that this is probably a considerable underestimate of the problem...
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