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Many argue that sanctions are "ineffective". That’s false. They are already highly effective in undermining Russian military efforts and can be made even more efficient. They can guarantee that Russia loses this war if they are goal-oriented and not moral crusade-oriented

9:50 PM · Mar 9, 2022Twitter Web App

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What would moral crusade oriented sanctions look like? Inflict economic damage, so that population revolts and overthrows the regime. That's an imbecile idea that never really worked and probably never will

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Goal-oriented sanctions look differently. Maximise systemic shock in order to paralyse technological chains. That will lead to a military defeat, which will entail the fall of regime. That's a great idea which usually works. It worked out with the USSR for example

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Two previous Russian regimes - Russian Empire and the USSR - fall exactly this way. Regime launched a small victorious war against an obviously inferior enemy, considering that the victory is guaranteed. Regime can't shut up about how weak and pathetic the enemy is

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And yet, this hubris works against you. With first defeats from an enemy whom you described as so much inferior, your mythos (=power) crumbles. You're very unlikely to survive that, even if no enemy soldier ever set foot on your territory. That's how Russian Empire and USSR fell

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In both cases Russia was materially far superior than its enemy. It had more people, more resources, stronger industry. So if Russia respected its enemy just a little, it could have won. But it didn't respect them at all. Russian disrespect of Japan for example looks stunning

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Interestingly enough, international public opinion and media largely shared this point of view. They also disrespected Japan and usually took Russian victory as guaranteed. After all, Russians are white - of course they'll crush those Asiatics

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Consider how they painted Japanese artillery. This hubris impressed me when reading Kipling's memoires. He visited Japan, saw their military manoeuvres and mocked this nation of "blind imitators". Pretty much everyone viewed Japanese as frauds and expected they quick defeat

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As a result, Russian defeats - which were materially speaking not that impressive - had devastating moral effect. Empire had men, had resources, had industry. But it's mythos was destroyed. Absolutism fell and very quickly the monarchy fell, too

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Ergo. Poverty does not topple regime. Material sufferings do not topple regime. But military defeat in a small victorious war absolutely does. This is typical for Russian history and if you consider history of other regions, like Latin America, it starts looking as a general rule

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Economic sufferings in Russia are now absolutely obvious. Here you see two women fighting over a frying pan in the last day before IKEA closes its business in Russia

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Prices on literally whatever are skyrocketing. TikTok is full of videos where people discuss the incredible prices on food and well, everything

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Here you see people queing to get cash from an ATM in the very late hours. That's understandable. In the times of crisis you quickly realise that cash is real money whole money on bank accounts are not so real to be honest

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Today Russian Central Bank prohibited people to buy cash dollars or euros for three months. Interestingly, they didn't prohibit converting rubles to usd/euros on your bank accounts. You are totally allowed to keep usd/euros in (Russian) banks. You're not just allowed to buy cash

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If you think about it this is a smart decision. Cash is hardly controllable and greedy citizens might sneak it from the Motherland. Meanwhile whatever usd/euros you have on your accounts can be frozen, forcibly converted to rubles etc at any moment. So you can keep it for a while

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At this point people started realising that previous standards of life are gone. That's people queuing to McDonalds to get one last touch of fast-food before this chain stops its operations in Russia

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