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max seddon
@maxseddon
Denis Pushilin, the head of the Donetsk People's Republic, just went on Russian TV to ask Putin to recognize it as an independent state. Looks like Georgia 2008 all over again
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Ukraine’s foreign minister responds. A reminder that the DNR and LNR only control about half of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, but claim all of them. If Putin moves to recognize them, that’s tantamount to war.
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Dmytro Kuleba
@DmytroKuleba
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No, Ukraine did NOT: ❌Attack Donetsk or Luhansk ❌Send saboteurs or APCs over the Russian border ❌Shell Russian territory ❌Shell Russian border crossing ❌Conduct acts of sabotage Ukraine also does NOT plan any such actions. Russia, stop your fake-producing factory now.
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Putin speaking to his security council now and rattling off the history of the Ukraine conflict from Moscow's perspective. None of them – and these are all Russia's most senior officials – are allowed within 20 yards of him.
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Putin on remarks by Scholz and others that Ukraine isn't going to join Nato any time soon because it's not ready. "This isn't a concession. This is part of your plan!" He says Macron said the US position had changed but couldn't explain how.
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max seddon
@maxseddon
If anyone has any doubts, this ends with Russia recognizing the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. It's a matter of time. Putin used to sit officials around a table and at least act like there was a discussion – now they just look like schoolkids reporting to the principal.
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Dmitry Kozak, Putin's top official for the Minsk talks, say they have been going nowhere since they were agreed in 2015. "Neither the west, nor Ukraine need Donbas," he says. "They want to put the brakes on the situation."
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB, now talking about accused Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. He claims they have captured a Ukrainian soldier. This is just utterly surreal
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, now talking about more alleged Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk. Neither he nor Kozak look particularly thrilled about this.
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max seddon
@maxseddon
This obviously has implications for much more than the Donbas – Shoigu says Ukraine could get nuclear weapons and pose more of a threat than Iran or North Korea, due to their Soviet-era knowledge.
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Putin asks if they should recognize DNR and LNR. Medvedev – remember that guy? – says it’s clear Ukraine doesn’t want them and won’t fulfill the Minsk agreements under any circumstances.
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max seddon
@maxseddon
"These aren't just Russian speakers, these are citizens of the Russian Federation," Medvedev says. "If things continue this way, the only way out is to recognize the sovereignty of these territories." He says the Russian people will support it.
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Nikolai Patrushev, head of the security council and probably the most hawkish of Putin’s confidants, is speaking. “We need negotiations, but only with the US. Everyone else will do what they tell them.” “They are hiding their true goal – to destroy the Russian Federation.”
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Sergei Naryshkin, head of foreign intelligence, suggests using potential DNR/LNR recognition as a threat to make Ukraine fulfill the Minsk agreements.
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max seddon
@maxseddon
Then it gets astonishing. Putin: speak clearly, do you support recognition? Naryshkin: I will Putin: You will or you do? Naryshkin: I support bringing them into Russia. Putin: That’s not what we are discussing! Do you support recognizing independence? Naryshkin, flustered: Yes
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max seddon
@maxseddon
I just can’t believe I’m watching this. You half expected Putin to feed Naryshkin and Mishustin to the sharks when they tried avoiding saying they supported recognizing the DNR
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max seddon
@maxseddon
A long line of officials – some enthusiastically, some looking terrified – urge Putin to recognize the DNR. Putin says, "A decision will be taken today." Then the TV cuts out. It's like the finale of the Sopranos. What the hell did I just watch????
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Ethan Whitehair
@ethan_whitehair
Replying to
@maxseddon
and
@Apex_WW
Despite the seriousness of the situation, this picture looks very stupid out of context. It looks like they took social distancing to a whole new level. Imagine if they didn't have mics and they just had to shout at each other.
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Francesco DM
@fdallemolle
Replying to
@maxseddon
I'm really starting to think that Mr.Putin in not "compos sui". Bad news, my job is unterstanding people's attitudes and behaviours. This is not going well.
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Mark Keogh
@MarkrKeogh
Replying to
@maxseddon
The fact they aren't all on-message tells you who is and who is not privy to Putin's "thinking". There's obviously a lot of very nervous nomenklatura in Moscow who see how badly this could backfire on them all.
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