Leaving Moscow after 5 d of intense conversations. Early in the week most people were hopeful about signs of deescalation. Moderates thought Kremlin was calming down. Hawks believed RU would get what it wants merely by mil posturing. This changed in past 2 days.
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People who know about economy are extremely worried about consequences of sanctions. But they do not have the Kremlin‘s ear. Haven’t had it for a long time. Liberals fear war AND domestic consequences in Ru: more autocracy, more repression.
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Since Friday night everybody should have unterstood the situation is dead serious. What is happening now clearly is a well-staged provocation from the Russian\DLNR side. 23 February is the „National Day of the Defender of the Fatherland“. We‘ll see where we are then.
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At the end of my last meeting we shook hands an said: let’s hope he blinks (no explanation needed, I suppose, as to who we had in mind). I am absolutely not sure he will.
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It changed with the announcement of the mass evacuation from the territories on Friday evening and everything that followed in terms of explosions, general mobilisation, extension of mil exercises in Belarus etc. etc. etc.
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offer from the other side of the table to de-escalate either.
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There is a saying in Sanskrit, “Vinaash kale viprit budhhi’. Applies to Putin aptly.
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It fits perfectly
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But the optimism of last week—the Shoigu/Lavrov meetings with Putin, the purported troop withdrawals, the insistence that troops would leave Belarus—was almost entirely confected by Russia to give the appearance of a spontaneous, subsequent escalation on Wed/Thur/Fri, was it not?
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It was all total nonsense and the western media ran with it
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The Ukrainians won't stand for it and even the ethnic Russians in the East are fed up as their part of the country is poorer than the rest of the country. What kind of an example can Russia give to Ukrainians and the rest of Europe? Are Germans flocking to work in Russia?!
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Germans are doing a damn thing to help anybody but themselves. They get their oil from Russia and they are holding all the cards right now!
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I have family there and am very worried for them and everyone else in the region.
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Thanks for your contribution. If you find time to read this analysis you come to understand that Zelensky misread the geopolitical scene, miscalculated NATO/US reach and limitations. He led UKR to a quagmire.
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Luke Harding
@lukeharding1968
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Here's my @guardian profile of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's embattled president who ran on a platform of peace, but is now on the brink of war with #Russia. A good performance in Munich on Sat but has he done enough to defend his citizens from attack? theguardian.com/world/2022/feb
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Why do I feel like it's a build-up just to dump the global markets in face of inevitable drastic rise in interest rates?
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How Putin is funding this colossal military logistics and activity at Ukraine border?
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