Some Russian observers have mentioned that Putin may be planning to pattern operations closely on Nato's 1999 campaign against Yugoslavia over Kosovo. Early steps seem to confirm this: Putin's use of 'genocide' + the creation of a 'refugee crisis' by removing Donbas citizens 1/
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If Russia goes for this Nato 'Kosplay' we can expect strikes throughout Ukraine as an instrument of coercion, thus Biden suggestion on Friday that RU would 'strike' Kyiv (not drive there), may mirror Nato actions against Belgrade + infrastructure targets like Novi Sad bridge 2/
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It should be noted that the RU military build up includes Iskander missiles, kalibr cruise missiles, and squadrons of jets, all of which could be used to strike targets deep in Ukraine in an attempt to break Zelensky govt 3/
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In this Russian Kosplay scenario, ground forces would move into the Donbas to drive back Ukrainian forces 'avert the risk of genocide' and might even use 'peace-keeping' tactic deployed in other post-Soviet interventions 4/
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By mirroring the tactics + messages employed by Nato in 1999 the Kremlin might hope not just to troll the western alliance on a historical scale, & underline the aggressive character of Nato seen from Moscow, but to maintain that its actions were justified by precedent 5/END
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A nation with steep population decline, especially amongst men of fighting age, starting a war ?
A President unable to rely on the loyalty of his Eastern populations, moving his "elite" soldiers westward?
foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/03/rus.
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Plus the younger generation like their iPhones and Audis. This is his last throw of a terrible dice.
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For the casus belli, sure, but following it operationally would be a mistake. NATO really flubbed that campaign.
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How? Besides the shot down F-117A?
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When German chancellor was with Putin,Putin said NATO bombing Belgrade is what started this off
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The Kosovo war had more impact on Russia than Iraq in 2003. They claimed it to be an illegal intervention in the internal affairs of a UN Member State.
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Maybe he's been watching events in the House of Commons, and taken his lead from ex LofH Reek-Bogg: What's Sauce for The Goose .........
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Perhaps he could seek advice on how to withdraw his troops from BelaRus from the newly appointed BRexit Tzar.
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#Operationsnowmoon
Has been operation since Thursday.. I expect you will see movement against their water supplies next . As early as today.. plus an attack by sea. His aim is obvious..
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Kosovo as excuse for Krim, Nato YU invasion as excuse for Ukraine
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Russia is “like the West reflected in a crooked mirror” — Peter Pomerantsev, ‘Nothing is True and Everything is Possible’.
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Let us hope we do not reach the stage where the West too is “like the West reflected in a crooked mirror”.
Another Putin strategy may be to pressure the Ukraine into a 'Louisiana Purchase' type sale of Eastern Ukraine by making ownership untenable economically. Perhaps invasion scares will occur every few months for the next few years if no invasion happens next week.
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I’ve been saying that for weeks - here greyharemedia.com/russia-and-ukr in earlier blogs and on TV and Radio :-) Putin has mentioned it twice that I heard and Lavrov once
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However if Putin tries to take over the whole country, the US invasion of Iraq, with the bombardment and circling of Baghdad, a likely model.
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Don't you just hate it when they play this dirty... 
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Russians love to trumpet the Kosovo intervention and create paralels but its totally different. As a Kosovan the problems and genocide we faced was orchestrated by the Serbs. In Donbass today there is no UKR Army only Russians.
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You ignore the fact that Russia might intervene to save Ukraine from the Russians.
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Good analogy - if, of course, you regard what happened in Yugoslava as simply 1999 and Kosova and ignore what preceded it.
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What preceded it?
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For many years I was banned from entering certain countries. Yugoslavia was one of them.
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You were? What for as that is quite an extraordinary measure for local authorities.
But what might be medium term outcome of this? It can absolutely be executed, but what then?
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And his excuse for this blatant and violent attack on a sovereign nation will be? Inexcusable.
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Combine that with the FSB's 1999 apartment bombings as a pretext for the second war in Chechnya and that means Russia will stage a fake "atrocity" event (orphans on an "evacuation bus"?) and declare war hours later. And Xi's Olympics end today, so...
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Kurica niet ptica - ukraina niet zagranica” mentalisty homosovieticus putin
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One major difference: The genocide in former Yougoslav was actually real...
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Really? You saw it itself?
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Likely. Initial 2014 GRU/FSB operations involved theatrical inversion of Maidan iconography, imagery.
Western ‘objective’ observers rarely grasp psychodynamic drivers in Putin/Silovik mindset.
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Top quality analysis Mark! 'Trolling' - but with cruise missiles !
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What it feels like to me also. Genocide rhetoric is a deliberate deployment of R2P that has so rankled Russia in the past.
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It certainly seems that the official propaganda is trying to engineer a refugee crisis and possibly prepare a "humanitarian" intervention scenario. Of course the analogy with either Bosnia and Kosovo is completely false.
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It's no wonder American Conservatives and Putin get along so well
It's always: "You did this thing in good faith, now I am going to do something in bad faith and claim it is the same thing you did"
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Mark Urban
@MarkUrban01
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Some Russian observers have mentioned that Putin may be planning to pattern operations closely on Nato's 1999 campaign against Yugoslavia over Kosovo. Early steps seem to confirm this: Putin's use of 'genocide' + the creation of a 'refugee crisis' by removing Donbas citizens 1/
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There's no such thing as 'American Conservatives'.
Just the Republican Party.
The Republican Party escapes accountability when members are called the word they want to be called because it hides their radicalism.
Do you think Republicans are 'conservative'?
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Russia used the line in 2008 Georgia
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Differences between 1999 and now:
- Nato wasn't cut off and under sanctions, anyway needed 3 months to change public opinion in a war tired society
- serbia didn't received high-end weapons from Russia
- Nato never planed boots on the ground.
If Putin does this, it would be
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Bad for Ukraine and will bring a lot of suffer over the people, but I'm sure Ukraine will rebuild quick and Russia will have to pay high price for doing so
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