If Russia decides to conduct a deep ground invasion, it won't conduct offensives from all of these staging areas. It will consolidate these armies and attack from fewer directions in multiple echelons to sustain the advance.
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What's your prediction? Will they go forward till Odessa if the invasion starts?
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Nobody knows... Neither Putin perhaps...
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21st century version of wwii deep battle... breakthrough and then exploit...question is, where will they go?
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3 main advances. Kiev encirclement. Kharkiv to poltava and kremenchuk. Donbas & Crimean advances. Off the map is the naval option for Odessa.
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initial action might be airstrikes around crimea, kiev, and kharkiv regions and i think the first city russia will attack by ground forces is kharkiv.
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The northern axis seems to be the least complicated. But also likely the most defended. Nonetheless- it makes the most sense.
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I agree, they will focus on the eastern boarder if you ask me for ground occupation, and hit Kiev over the air, missiles, heavy artillery. The question is how much do they want to grab this time. Putin may want to take Odessa too and full control of the Black Sea now.
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More than people are predicting right now. Despite all the hot air the population at large highly apathetic.
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All they have to do is create a north - south axis in line with Kyiv. If Kyiv falls, game over.
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A thrust from Crimea to Odessa - Moldova would isolate the core of Ukrainian land mass by sea. They then sit and hold it while keeping all other units right across borders with Russia and Belarus. They have the amphibious assets. Limited war. :
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Interesting approach
smart. But isn’t it tough to keep troops in the field in winter? I mean a week or two. But won’t morale start to fall before the cut off from the sea would matter? Not arguing so much as teasing out. I like your thought.
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I had too much time on my hands and did this last week. Pulling together twitter info, foreign policy knowledge (am an amateur international political scientist) and Think Tank Groups. I did this map. Worst case scenario and not likely to occur.
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They are going to split ukraine into two, the EU half and the russian vassal half. With the river as border. IMO.
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I am also sceptical about Russian/"L/DNR" forces choosing to attack through the well fortified and well-known (for the AFU) positions. It would make much mor sense have them fairly engaged there - yes, but bypass them closer to Kharkiv. IMHO, same for Crimea.
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