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If Russia decides to conduct a deep ground invasion, it won't conduct offensives from all of these staging areas. It will consolidate these armies and attack from fewer directions in multiple echelons to sustain the advance.
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The Lookout
@The_Lookout_N
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Here is an attempt to create an illustrative map on where we have Army level concentrations, currently in the process of moving to jump-off positions near the border. This is my personal assessment as of 1200z today, February 13th.
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3 main advances. Kiev encirclement. Kharkiv to poltava and kremenchuk. Donbas & Crimean advances. Off the map is the naval option for Odessa.
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initial action might be airstrikes around crimea, kiev, and kharkiv regions and i think the first city russia will attack by ground forces is kharkiv.
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The northern axis seems to be the least complicated. But also likely the most defended. Nonetheless- it makes the most sense.
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I agree, they will focus on the eastern boarder if you ask me for ground occupation, and hit Kiev over the air, missiles, heavy artillery. The question is how much do they want to grab this time. Putin may want to take Odessa too and full control of the Black Sea now.
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Interesting approach 🤔 smart. But isn’t it tough to keep troops in the field in winter? I mean a week or two. But won’t morale start to fall before the cut off from the sea would matter? Not arguing so much as teasing out. I like your thought.
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I had too much time on my hands and did this last week. Pulling together twitter info, foreign policy knowledge (am an amateur international political scientist) and Think Tank Groups. I did this map. Worst case scenario and not likely to occur.
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I am also sceptical about Russian/"L/DNR" forces choosing to attack through the well fortified and well-known (for the AFU) positions. It would make much mor sense have them fairly engaged there - yes, but bypass them closer to Kharkiv. IMHO, same for Crimea.
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