Here is an attempt to create an illustrative map on where we have Army level concentrations, currently in the process of moving to jump-off positions near the border.
This is my personal assessment as of 1200z today, February 13th.
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Naval dispositions would also be a very large factor. If you include the NOTAM's for Black and Azov seas the picture is very compelling.
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Looks like the 1st gaurds and 6th CAA will be the main thrust into the heartland.
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Thanks. Could you add #Russian Naval assets and Ukrainian forces? Even if just a basic estimate? Many thanks
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Tadeusz Giczan
@TadeuszGiczan
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Belarusian authorities' response to the inquiry of the Baltic states about the exercises went largely unnoticed but I think it's pretty big. What it says is that a number of Russian units in Belarus don't take part in the exercises but are here to "protect the southern border."
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We are mostly looking at elements of various sizes.
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Would be a good distraction of NATO forces or could provide wide flanking to hit Lviv early in war theoretically.
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Do they have forces in the Belarusian Chernobyl exclusion zone (Palieski State Radioecological Reserve) or is that just where the red lines were drawn?
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This is an illustrative map. Don't know if units are inside the exclusion zone.
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acording to what i see here the 35th would try to reach Kyiv from the west while the 36th would try to reach Kyiv from the east ,,
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Add to that Black Sea positions
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Objective seems to be to take half of Ukraine, everything east of Dnieper river.
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Can you exclude that they will try to ship troops over the sea from Russia towards the harbour in Berdyansk?
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Magnífico mapa. Muy aclaratorio. Los rusos han aprendido de los estado unidenses, sin van... van con todo. Ir medias es fracaso asegurado.
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This is great, thanks for the the info. Can you make another map with displacement of Ukrainian troops too, so we can have full picture? 
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So what are your thoughts on IF Russian invades do you think they’ll take the whole of Ukraine or that they will stop at the Dnieper River and use it as a natural boarder which also gives Russia a land bridge to Crimea?
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Thanks. This really makes it look like the more obvious course of events would be a move that may not extend beyond the Dnieper, with the exception of some forces directed toward Kiev to draw forces from the East (even without intent to take Kiev.
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Why hasn’t Ukraine mobilized its reserves? Has the Ukrainian army deployed in the field or are they sitting ducks in bases?
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Add Transdnister from Moldova to picture... There are about 5k troops with artillery and APCs. Not much but enough for distraction.
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This looks like an old Forward Observer simulator training scenario. Back to the 80’s.
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Negligible. Aside from the EE member states’ own armies, there are only two (maybe a bit more now) NATO brigades, one in Poland, and the other spread through the Baltic states. A handful of fighter jets and a few ships. Nothing that is even remotely threatening to Russia.
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I've seen these maps. Keep hearing 130k Russian troops. The population of Ukraine ~ 44m and Kyiv ~ 2.5m. If this is an invasion force, any word of Russian follow-on forces for an occupation?
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Body bag divisions?
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The weather forecast looks wet and windy starting Wednesday for large parts of eastern Ukraine. Right now it's still mostly freezing. Could (and will) change rapidly of course.
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The northern force has close air support at Luninets, Belarus (32 Su-25s), which supports the theory of a blitz / decapitation attack on Kyiv.
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