会話

さん

Let's start from the beginning! A recent study by Thompson et al., which was published in the

@NEJM

, funded and features by

@CDCgov

in its weekly MMWR series, looked at COVID-19 Like Illness (CLI) hospitalizations for the age group 50+.

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The study authors identified over 40k hospitalizations. These were not all-cause hospitalizations, but CLI diagnosed hospitalizations, which is a subset of all hospitalizations. Time frame: 1/1/21 - 6/22/21. The below diagram tries to visualize the study sample (red).

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They gathered 103,199 hospitalizations from 7 diff. locations, see map. They used a test-negative study design, means that they included everyone that matched the criteria (50+ & CLI diagnosis).

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This is not ideal, since it’s still not all-cause hospitalization by vaccine status, but it’s much better than what we’ve seen before. And it should be representative within it's sample.

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It is noteworthy, that they excluded 61,647 hospitalizations, that did not match their study criteria: 1) <50 2) No vaxx records 3) Repeat admissions 4) No covid19 testing 5) Recently Vaxxed (<14d)

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Excluding 1-4 makes sense. Excluding 5, dose1 vaccinated <14 days, does not make any sense to me! Are these hospitalizations in connection with the vaccine?

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In the first chart, I have included the fifth category, specifically 1,872 CLI hospitalizations that were excluded by the authors. Notably here, the authors also made a simple math mistake! Unbelievable!!

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So the main result of their study was: "The effectiveness of full messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccination (≥14 days after the second dose) was 89% [...] against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to hospitalization [...]" OK, so 89% effective. Great, right?

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I have calculated Covid19 Hosp. Vaccine Efficacy (VE) based on the raw numbers, and I arrive at 91%. That's close, and the reason why it's off by 2% is the additional statistical corrections the authors did (age, testing bias, etc.).

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Ok, so what’s the problem with this? The problem remains to be the highly sensitive PCR test. Confirmed covid in this case is defined as CLI & PCR+. Same as in the vaccine studies, see here Pfizers. They did not tell us the rate of all-cause sickness or CLI!

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So if we calculate the vaccine efficacy in the same manner as before, taking into account all the CLI admissions including the excluded 1,872 visits (dose1 <14 day vaxxed), I calculate a VE of -13%!

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Important note: All following charts are excluding the 1,872 “patients receiving dose-1 <14 days prior to index hospitalization date”, since they were excluded in the final study sample, and no detailed information is available!

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So, based on the study sample of 41,552, what if we only look at how many people actually got sick? If we actually look at how many people were diagnosed by their physician with CLI, we can see that all three groups were diagnosed with about the same rate... Odd right?

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Here's the same chart, CLI clinical diagnosis, with the COVID-19 RT-PCR test positivity (blue). We can observe that while CLI diagnosis remains steady; Covid cases are significantly lower in vaccinated. Why is that? More on that topic later below…

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First let's look at actual Covid-Like-Illness (CLI) symptoms! This is what IMO should be the relevant metric, as this is a sign that a human is potentially sick FROM a respiratory virus. We observe the same effect, the rate of symptomatic CLI is very similar!

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Let's see how these people tested for Covid-19 with the PCR test? Similar picture as before, while partially vaccinated, and vaccinated are slightly more symptomatic, they test less positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

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The differences between symptomatic CLI could be by chance, or could it be possible, that they are due to the vaccine itself? Specifically, partially vaccinated had the most symptoms! Note, that this does not even include the 1,872 excluded dose1/<14day patients!!!

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In the same manner as the original authors, we can now calculate the Vaccine Efficacy against symptomatic Covid-Like-Illness (CLI). Huh?! Negative too. Yep, that's right. Because based on the data, the vaccinated groups actually experience more CLI symptoms.

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Interesting, right? So this means that despite Covid19 vaccination, people appear to get as sick and hospitalized (if not even more!), as before?! Here are some other aspects that I looked at:

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1) Age: Observation: Older age groups have higher vaxx rate, so these charts are in line with expectations.

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2) Comorbidities Did not appear to be a driving factor as the difference was within 2-3 percentage points.

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3) Hospitalization, that later lead to ICU admission Between 16-20% of initially as CLI admitted later went to ICU. There’s a slight difference in favor of vaxxed. However, this diff is rather small in magnitude. Could be due to confounders/chance, physician bias, exclusion...

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Assuming these were accurate numbers, it would only yield a 20% VE, which would be modest, and way below CDC’s 50% threshold.

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4) Rank of CLI diagnosis How they coded the CLI diagnosis, primary vs non-primary. We can see that the primary CLI diagnosis decr. by about half from unvaxxed to fully vaxx. Could this also be due to physician bias? Since we know that symptoms are equal between groups.

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5) Testing Propensity (Bias) between the groups. Based on the data provided, I find that unvaccinated hospitalized CLI/50+ patients, are 11% more often tested for Covid19, or vaccinated CLI/50+ patients are 12.5% less often tested.

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Summary/Interpretation: 1) Rate of CLI admission, diagnosis, symptoms/signs similar between unvaccinated vs vaccinated (possibly even higher in vaccinated) → No sign. difference in covid like illness between vaxx groups.

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2) Study sample exclusions lead to distortion of data: such as 1,872 excluded dose1 <14 day vaxxed. Such as 1,847 potentially excluded vaccinated CLI’s due to testing bias (-12.5%/11%)

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3) Rate of Covid19 test positives are significantly lower, but why? See some explanations below:

Possible Explanations/Open Questions: So now that we have proven, that vaccinated people do not get significantly less sick with CLI and therefore in general, what might actually be happening?

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Cernunnos-Mountbatten Capital Management

We do not know for certain, as this would require all-cause hospitalization/death data by vaxx status. No country (afaik) publishes this, specifically including # of performed tests by vaxx status.

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さん

unroll pls

Hallo, you can read it here: パトライト

Does #Covid19 Vaccination lead to less COVID-19-Like Illness (CLI)?… threadreaderapp.com/thread/1443431 Enjoy :) ロボットの顔

Does #Covid19 Vaccination lead to less COVID-19-Like Illness (CLI)? A test-negative design study with 41,552 participants looked CLI diagnosis, symptomatic illness, and...

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さん

Fantastic Ben. Need to go through a couple of times to get it all. 両手を上げる

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さん

so you are saying the COVID vaccine doesn't help against other illnesses, that are similar to COVID?! Is that it? Shock horror 大爆笑

#Pureblooded Protagonist

@DVSwords

It will be "shock horror" if these vaxs protect against the Alpha strain but make the vaxxed more susceptible to literally everything else, COVID or not.

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さん,

さん

Safe and effective 大爆笑

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さん

This was already predicted by Prof. Dr. Bhakdi beginning of this year. The explanation is simple: the vadt majority has cross immunity, such that vaccinating those people will lead to an immune overreaction causing similar symptoms.

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さん

Thanks, this is indeed what can be seen in the real world.

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さん

pls unroll

Saluti, you can read it here: パトライト

Does #Covid19 Vaccination lead to less COVID-19-Like Illness (CLI)?… threadreaderapp.com/thread/1443431 See you soon. ロボットの顔

Does #Covid19 Vaccination lead to less COVID-19-Like Illness (CLI)? A test-negative design study with 41,552 participants looked CLI diagnosis, symptomatic illness, and...

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さん,

さん

A great thread for you to review

@Johnincarlisle

in your next video update.

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さん

Amazing. Thank you! Questions: Other studies show that vax. don't significantly reduce the rate of positive tests (VE against "infection" waning quickly). Would that contradict your findings? Do we know what the other CLI causes are, and what COVID's share is?

Paddypatman

@Paddypatman

It would support the 2 other possible explanations: A) Testing-bias B) Vaxx leads to higher susceptability towards other resp. illnesses.

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さん

unroll pls

Hi! please find the unroll here: パトライト

Does #Covid19 Vaccination lead to less COVID-19-Like Illness (CLI)?… threadreaderapp.com/thread/1443431 Talk to you soon. ロボットの顔

Does #Covid19 Vaccination lead to less COVID-19-Like Illness (CLI)? A test-negative design study with 41,552 participants looked CLI diagnosis, symptomatic illness, and...

threadreaderapp.com

Paul Collyer イングランドの旗

@dobssi

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さん

Couple of things. Firstly, everyone in the study was sick, with or without Covid right? So you know the raw share of fully vaxxed straight away…..around 50%. 1/

Paul Collyer イングランドの旗

@dobssi

So to know with surety the relative chances of being one of these sick patients according to vax status you have to know the vax status rates per population at the time of each admission. Do you? 2/

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さん

This re-analysis of Big Pharma's trial data supports your analysis. scivisionpub.com/pdfs/us-covid1

Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?

Thank you, I haven't seen this. But I'll give it a read.

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さん

I wish more researches would break up with the tunnel vision of the pandemic. More symptoms-oriented and all-cause analysis are certainly needed! Amazing thread. Just followed you.

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さん,

さん

save thread

First public save of this thread! トロフィー

Readwise users: Like this reply to save USMortality's thread to your account without cluttering their replies

Stats: • 1 total save of USMortality's threads (ranked #12157)

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さん

This is a meaningless chart. What you need to look at is hospitalisation per capita in the two categories.

A surge involving the rapidly-transmitting Delta variant in heavily vaccinated countries has led to much hand-wringing that the vaccines are not effective against Delta, or vaccine effectivenss wanes...

covid-datascience.com

Lumpi's Dogbone

@NachbarLumpis

No, he doesn't need to look at different age groups because the study he refers to does it neither. It is just about the >50 age group. I suppose he calculated ve the same way the authors did and thereby considered vaccination rate in population. Otherwise it would'nt be possible

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∞ UnusXImmortalis ∞ コウモリ

@UnusXImmortalis

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さん

great work thank you! can you also take a look at this?

引用ツイート

Andrew Bostom, MD, MS

@andrewbostom

· 9月30日

Something isn't working right:40% of all C19 cases in San Diego county are from fully vaccinated people covidreason.substack.com/p/something-is

GOMBrightfutureUK 微笑み

@GOMsec

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さん

Is there a difference between PCR CT used for vaccinated and unvaccinated? Didn't the CDC change CT so that the vaccinated range is 20 to 25, while the unjabbed are >40 possibly 45.

No, no they didn't.

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さん

Some months ago CDC announced to change testing rules for Vaccinated. Measurement should stop at a Ct value much below the Ct value for Unvaccinated. I don't know whether that happened. But if it did, could that explain the differences in PCR+ share but not CLI share?

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さん

What does "Trusting The Science" actually mean:youtu.be/4r9F3DPgUuE

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さん

So, let me get this straight. You have vaxed people 50+ in the hospital with respiratory illness, they are pcr negative, and you think that proves the vaccines do not protect from covid?? So they basically they have some other respiratory virus and you are dunking on covid vax

theMLBeat

@theMLBeat1

He always reaches for new levels of confirmation bias.

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さん

Wow. Recht viel Aufwand für die Aussage, dass die Coronaimpfung nicht gegen andere respiratorische Erkrankungen schützt! 肩をすくめる男性

Taun Rey

@TaunRey

Church of the One True Science

Aber ist die Aussage nicht, dass Geimpfte häufiger an diesen erkranken als Ungeimpfte? So hatte ich ihn verstanden.

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さん

If you look at the deaths, where Pfizer took the 90%+ prevention, it makes sense

@stylewar

10月2日

What a great add to the thread Thx

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さん

Hard to take thread seriously when you’re clearly Anti-Vax

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さん

you guys have anything to say on this?

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さん

Great thread! Are you aware that the observation that vax does not result in „overall less respiratory disease“ is also true for the flu shot? There, non-influenza resp dis is even increased after vax.

Increased Risk of Noninfluenza Respiratory Virus Infections Associated With Receipt of Inactivated...

We randomized 115 children to trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) or placebo. Over the following 9 months, TIV recipients had an increased risk of virologically-confirmed non-influenza...

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さん

unroll #covid

Hallo, the unroll you asked for: パトライト

Does #Covid19 Vaccination lead to less COVID-19-Like Illness (CLI)?… threadreaderapp.com/thread/1443431 Talk to you soon. ロボットの顔

Does #Covid19 Vaccination lead to less COVID-19-Like Illness (CLI)? A test-negative design study with 41,552 participants looked CLI diagnosis, symptomatic illness, and...

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さん

I’m doing a survey about Covid19 and Obesity in Children for my school research. Please help me doing the survey 訴えかける顔

Thank you

Covid-19 and Obesity in Children

This survey is conducted for school research only

docs.google.com

Pandemic at the Disco

@WhislerA

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さん

Bro, you don’t get it. At all.

引用ツイート

Natalie E. Dean, PhD

@nataliexdean

· 10月1日

Ah, to be as confidently wrong as a Silicon Valley software engineer. The author of this viral thread is amazed that a vaccine study found similar rates of COVID-like illness in vax & unvax. Almost like having COVID symptoms is a prerequisite for entry into a TEST NEGATIVE STUDY. twitter.com/USMortality/st…

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さん

Take this down……we can’t have totally incorrect crap like this going viral

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さん

Whole worthless thread got demolished by

@nataliexdean

hahaha

Anand C. Patel, MD MS

@anandcpatelmdms

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