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Not so great news this morning from Israel. The MoH reports that the effectiveness of Pfizer to protect against contracting Delta drops to 64% from 94% against other strains. This have major implications for herd immunity & the ability of the virus to further evolve. #UpdateNow

午前5:31 · 2021年7月5日Twitter Web App

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返信先:

@erlichya

さん

Caveats: not a peer-reviewed publication. This is the source (the largest news website in Israel):

פרסום ראשון: ירידה ביעילות החיסון בארץ, עדיין מונע תחלואה קשה ב-93%

לפי נתוני משרד הבריאות המעודכנים, יעילות החיסון מפני הדבקה צנחה ל-64% בחודש האחרון, על רקע התפשטות זן דלתא וביטול ההגבלות. עם זאת, ההגנה מפני מחלה קשה ואשפוז עדיין גבוהה מאוד. בכיר בצוות לטיפול...

To be clear, we are talking about symptomatic and a-symptomatic cases. The effectiveness for hospitalization prevention is still high (>90%) based on this preliminary analysis. But the implications are that the virus can still evolve in vaccinated individuals. Not great.

344

Valentine Michael Smith

@VMSMars

7月5日

返信先:

@erlichya

さん

Sadly this was always a possibility. The good news is that the Pfizer vaccine still seems to provide +90% protection against severe desease (even with Delta).

Valentine Michael Smith

@VMSMars

7月5日

AFAIK updated booster shots should be available in September. An effort should be made to make highly effective mRNA vaccines available in all the countries around the world.

返信先:

さん

I would wait till I see the scientific source for this. Yesterday another major news source reported that scientists from the Hebrew University made a big claim about vaccine efficacy, only to have one of the scientists involved write that this is not actually the claim they made

Yaniv Erlich

@erlichya

7月5日

You are right that everything is preliminary but it does matches what we see with the spike of vaccinated who are positives.

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返信先:

さん

Well.. to your knowledge is there any other vaccines that is safe or with less side effects?

Yaniv Erlich

@erlichya

7月5日

Pfizer/Moderna are the best so far.

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返信先:

さん

Do we know how many asymptomatic PCR+.

返信先:

さん

Conclusion: only endemic policy is viable option - to live with covid like with flu.

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Sajid Javid

@sajidjavid

· 7月4日

We are going to have to learn to live with Covid and find ways to cope with it – just as we already do with flu. Please read my piece in the Mail on Sunday. mol.im/a/9753313

Kevin Kreitman

@kkreitman

7月5日

COVID is 10-20 times more lethal than the flu, and has a vastly higher rate of long term complications. So, no.

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返信先:

さん

Interesting, this doesn't seem to match PHE data on VE seen against delta here in the UK.

sonia

@ophrys_91

7月5日

What is the last estimate of VE against infection in UK? Somehow I remember 50%?! Hope I'm wrong

返信先:

さん

My unvax friends won't get tested no matter what. So if you ask me, the only data that is trustworthy right now is hospital admissions. You won't know about asymptomtic and mild symptomatic case in the corona denial - anti Vax community.

返信先:

さん

Yes we were suspecting. Preventiin of severe cases and hospitalization still 90 percent. Also this is not published or peer reviewed data yet

返信先:

さん

64%? Other estimates have been around 85% I believe. Any thoughts on what could factor into this? Maybe thoroughness of testing?

Oskah O'ah

@OzzyAussieOtty

7月5日

64% is against infection (asymptomatic or symptomatic) the higher estimates are only against symptomatic infection.

Prof. Dr. Ali Ihsan Goker

@aihsan_goker

7月5日

返信先:

@erlichya

さん

It is just a matter of time before the virus evolves to evade the current vaccines... Then, only a tiny crack in the dam will be enough for the flood

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返信先:

さん

Not surprising. Antigenic structure of vaccines available on the market is based on the virus being released in China, 2019. Current SarsCov2 variant dominating the world has a slightly different structure So Vaccine induced antibodies may not neutralize the virus.

T cell R

返信先:

さん

The life of vaccines are only 6 months. Israel began vaccinating in February. So the vaccines expired.

Mr. MacPhisto

@macphisto96

7月5日

The evidence is showing the vaccines have efficacy for much longer than six months and antibody response grows with time.

返信先:

さん

Yazık...

返信先:

さん,

さん

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さん

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返信先:

さん

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さん

thoughts on this?

返信先:

さん

Well, the initial expectations of the vaccine back in December with the Alpha were that it will maybe somewhat decrease infection, but will be efficient in preventing hospitalization. Everything else was a pleasant surprise and now with the delta we are just back to reality...

Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS

返信先:

さん

was just stating the earlier cdc and PHE data were solid.

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返信先:

さん

Not necesarrily a limit of the vaccine, take a look here: twitter.com/ClaasPotthoff/ It implies titer to CAL20.C is at least tripled after 3rd dose . Time for the booster. These titers in mice indicate the Beta vaccines won't offer an advantage in Delta which has L452R like CAL20.C.

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Claas Potthoff

@ClaasPotthoff

· 7月4日

返信先: @fitterhappierAJさん, @eclectictwitさん

Non-sterilizing, but so are the Beta updates. biorxiv.org/content/10.110 Beta titer is 50% higher compared to old vaccine booster. So what? CAL20.C (same L452R mutation as Delta) titer is 70% lower compared to the "old" vaccine. Clearly more effort will be needed.

Claas Potthoff

@ClaasPotthoff

7月5日

Explanation: after 2nd dose titer against CAL20.C is x. After 3rd dose with mRNA-1273.351 it goes to up 1821. So x must be lower than 1821. But after the 3rd shot of the original vaccine titer against CAL20.C goes up to 6874.

返信先:

さん

I'm hearing about a Hebrew University study that says 60-80 percent. Can you tell us whether that's infection or symptomatic infection?

do you know?

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返信先:

さん

返信先:

さん,

さん

I think this is very misleading as they have been doing very extensive well time PCR testing of contacts so are likely to have pick up many more short miner infections then in the past.

Arthur Max

@dslack

7月5日

It’s about efficacy against infection, not against symptomatic cases, though I think the baseline/comparison should be 90%, not 94%.

返信先:

さん

Now would be a good time for "transparent scientific debate, open to the public, where different opinions can be articulated, discussed and challenged", as

@GVDBossche

calls for. geertvandenbossche.org/post/the-chick

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David Windt

@DavidLWindt

· 7月4日

Vaccinated people can get asymptomatic or symptomatic infections, severe disease, and can infect others. That observation seems to me to conflict with the claim that herd immunity against Covid-19 can be achieved via the current mass vaccination program, i.e., hypothesis #1.

twitter.com/DavidLWindt/st…

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返信先:

さん

So maybe time for CDC to tell everyone to put on masks and start counting breakthroughs.

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さん,

さん

That's still better than the annual flu jab.

返信先:

さん

- what do you think of this?

Chise

@sailorrooscout

7月5日

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Chise

@sailorrooscout

· 7月5日

返信先: @oktobepositiveさん

Absolutely so see twitter.com/sailorrooscout and twitter.com/sailorrooscout It’s likely this is against “any infection” not symptomatic (PHE: 88%) which means it’s likely not dissimilar in terms of Alpha/ancestral so I would not make conclusions or panic.

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さん

But importantly the vast majority of those reportedly 'infected' are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic; let's not give the anti-vaccers incomplete information!

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さん

Family friends - 4 vaccinated (2 w/J&J, 1 fully with Moderna, 1 was waiting on 2nd shot Pfizer) all got the Delta variant in Ukraine last week. Symptoms are different: gastrointestinal, headache and muscle aches. They were stunned.