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Bianna Golodryga

@biannagolodryga

This conclusion is wrong. 80% of adults in Israel have been vaccinated. So as long as <80% of serious cases/deaths are among vaccinated, vaccine is effective. The right stats are the odds of being sick given vaccinated vs not vaccinated (and on that see timesofisrael.com/just-one-serio)

引用ツイート

Alex Berenson

@AlexBerenson

· 15時間

The newest Israeli data indicate ~complete vaccine failure on every level. Remember: Israel used only the @pfizer mRNA shot and followed Pfizer dosing schedule. This data, from the @IsraelMOH telegram account, show nearly all serious cases and deaths are now among the vaccinated.

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午前0:58 · 2021年7月19日Twitter for iPhone

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件のいいね

返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

Thank you the correction Bianna♥︎

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Stop-the-MAGAss-Reich

返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

Yes, conditional probability. Reminds me of "Lies, damned lies and statistics".

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返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

When the cdc gave the emergency use authorization the vaccine, it had to be 50% effective. Your idea of effective does not pass the test.

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返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

"as long as <80% . . . , vaccine is effective" is a bit of abuse of the word "effective." Still, your point is valid and the Times article examines that.

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Anonymous Professor

返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

I am afraid this is not the right conclusion either. We look for statistical significant diff (unlikely due to chance) between groups, not just a diff based on eyeballing it. The differences in number of cases b/w vaxxed and unvaxxed in IS are so small and likely not sig. diff.

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Gary Scott Mendenhall

返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

The expectation of the vaccine isn't that serious cases/deaths would be 1 or 2 % points beneath the % vaccinated. We're in trouble if it is.

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@RevisitingLife

返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

I dont believe your statement holds true in reality since it is missing the all important assumption, ceteris paribus. You have to control for the other factors that differentiate the vaccinated population from the unvaccinated population, to prove there is a vaccine effect.

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@Mahshid_Jafari_

返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

Let's assume about 50% of serious cases/deaths are among vaccinated. You call it effective? How do you conclude that?

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返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

We are on to you. Continually moving goalposts to fit your agenda.

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返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

Not even close.

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返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

I think the point is that if 80% of the population is vaxxed and the vax is 90% effective, one would expect 28% of the population to be at risk for serious issues. That most of the relatively few are vaxxed shows they aren’t taking precautions. The unvaxed are masked.

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返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

You weren’t the brightest student in class were you

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返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

I think you meant the opposite, right? Because, in fact, the deaths happening only among vaccinated may point to a weaker immune system in them. Thus, to infer and further investigate whether the vaccine is the cause of this weaker immune system...

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返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

Ratio

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返信先:

@biannagolodryga

さん

Oops:

Top immunologist: Douse Israel’s Delta ‘fire’ before it needs lake-full of water

Cyrille Cohen talks Delta dynamics and booster shots, raises concerns and sounds warning alarm while also suggesting variant may further immunize some people for uncertain future

timesofisrael.com

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