All scenarios include vaccine distribution.
Last updated April 16, 2021 (Pacific Time)
FAQ | Policy briefings | Publications | PartnersObserved (smoothed)
Current projection
Worse
Universal masks
Daily deaths is the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic, although there is generally a 17-21 day lag between infection and deaths.
Observed (smoothed)
Current projection
Worse
Universal masks
Hospital resource use indicates how equipped a location is to treat COVID-19 patients for the Current projection scenario. Select All beds, ICU beds, or Invasive ventilators for descriptions of each measure.
All beds needed
ICU beds needed
Invasive ventilators needed
Estimated infections are the number of people we estimate are infected with COVID-19 each day, including those not tested.
Current projection
Worse
Universal masks
Mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. Mask use can reduce transmission by 30% or more.
Observed
Current projection
Universal masks
Social distancing
Reducing human contact (as measured by cell phone mobility data) can drive down infections so that mask use, testing, isolation, and contact tracing can work to contain the virus.
Observed
Current projection
Worse
Universal masks