By Sishuwa Sishuwa
If Zambia descends into large-scale political unrest after the 12 August 2021 general election, there are three major factors that would have driven the country to that outcome. These include the public’s increasing lack of trust in (and outright contempt for) formal institutions – like the Judiciary, the Electoral Commission of Zambia and the police – as arbiters of the contest between those who wield state power and those seeking to acquire it.
Another is a high-stakes election featuring two ruthless groups of political elites. One wants to perpetuate its stay in power in order to continue accumulating and to escape possible prosecution and imprisonment. The other seeks to win power to prevent a crushing end to its members’ political careers. Leaders and supporters of both groups see the August election as a matter of life and death and are likely to violently rebel against an outcome that does not favour them – especially if it lacks credibility.
What has emboldened these two factors is the third: the incriminating silence of international, mainly Western, institutions and actors who once spoke out against human rights violations and murderous attacks on democracy and exercised some kind of leverage on the actions of the political elites in power. A key reason for this quietness is the decline in funding to Zambia from major world powers. For example, the United Kingdom, as part of its post-Brexit foreign policy centred on developing close ties with South East Asia, has ‘deprioritised’ all but a few African countries, and Zambia has seen a 70 percent reduction in UK funding this year alone. These huge cuts in support might explain the diminishing influence of the UK and other Western powers on governance issues in Zambia.
At the heart of why Zambia may burn, however, are the first two factors. These have been greatly shaped by the reprehensible actions of President Edgar Lungu’s authoritarian regime, which has:
- made a mockery of Zambia’s democratic tradition and effectively eliminated constitutional and lawful means of political competition for the occupation of government.
- effectively destroyed the vestiges of autonomy in all state institutions outside the executive arm of government for the purposes of establishing an authoritarian regime and a slide into a fearful dictatorship. The President has carried out this task with considerable ease, impunity and skill, employing a line of political rhetoric and well-concealed hypocrisy that went unrecognised until it was far too late.
- loaded the courts with loyal judges.
- turned the police into a political tool to be unleashed on critics and political opponents and armed it to the teeth.
- collapsed the economy, turning millions of Zambians into fearful beggars easy to corrupt and bribe.
- deeply polarised Zambia on ethno-regional and political lines.
- weakened the trade union movement to a point of rendering it useless to the working class.
- generated mass youth unemployment, massively grown prostitution, youth dependence on alcohol and drug abuse, swelled the ranks of street kids and orphans, exploded the statistics of violent crimes, increased youth remand and imprisonment, and produced a generation of young people without hope eager to be deployed for political violence.
- paved the way for bribery and corruption to thrive on a widespread scale and to destroy even the moral fibre of the leaders of the Church, many of whom have been converted into party cadres.
- destroyed some and weakened and intimidated most of the private media.
- used sustained neglect, financial strangulation and bullying to turn public universities led by the University of Zambia into upgraded secondary schools and ghost institutions.
- created a new, dubious voters’ roll to make it nearly impossible for Lungu to be evicted from government through elections.
- enacted a punitive cybercrime law to police the use of social media, legalise spying on citizens and arrest free speech.
- recreated “party cadres” as the informal police out to terrorise citizens who do not toe the line or identify with the wishes of those in power. These cadres have become perfect tools for the corrupt and violent political elites to deploy against their political opponents. Sadly, mass unemployment provides an endless supply of desperate, impoverished youths as “party cadres” for the violent political elites to deploy as they see fit.
- stockpiled weapons to kill potential protesters in the event of a flawed election outcome.
The net result is a country waiting to explode because of collapsing institutions, deep polarisation, mass poverty, intolerable levels of unemployment, extreme inequalities, restless violent party cadres, and desperate political elites. In this context, a flawed outcome of the 12 August 2021 election may turn out to be the spark that lights the simmering discontent. The risk of unrest is greater in urban areas such as Lusaka and the Copperbelt where the effects of economic decline are more acute. What we have before us, in short, is a powder keg, a bomb, being primed to explode. The good news is that this horrible potential fate for Zambia is not inevitable. We need to intervene and interrupt this equation. It can be done.
By we, I mean ‘we the people’ – particularly those in whose heads and soul the pitiful state of our subhuman existence has struck a chord; a movement, a mass movement of anger critical of any “saviour” dressed in any of our typical political clothes. We need to reclaim our agency in our own cause, our own liberation from oppression, domination and exploitation. I recognise that this is a tall order considering that we are now thrust too deep in narrow ethnic, regional and political identities to come anywhere close to being a ‘people’. But we must rise above these confines and unite to ensure the that drivers to the post-election violence as elaborated above have been sufficiently dealt with. Otherwise, we must wait for the rivers of blood and broken skulls. How can we avert this nightmare, this painful and disastrous fate?
The first step is to stop Lungu from securing an unconstitutional third term in office. The governing Patriotic Front and the Constitutional Court have the responsibility to do so and help prevent the dangerous slide into chaos. The next step would require us to confront the question of a successor to Lungu. If the status quo is a nightmare, the challenge is how do we wake up from it? I come from a background where to be against wrong is to stand for what is good, but what is good must be created or named.
This would require us to objectively and honestly examine the manifestoes, policies, internal democratic cultures and practices, and the quality of leaders of all existing political parties and measure them against how far they promise to take us away from the status quo that has reduced us to rubble. We owe this exercise to ourselves. I do not subscribe to only saying “no more” to something without at the same time saying “yes” to what must replace it. Without this dialectical thinking and practice, we are condemned to always lurching from one horrible political experiment to another. This is not the way.
No matter how unpopular and weak the alternative to the status quo is, it remains its alternative. It is the duty and full responsibility of a genuine and progressive individual to be fearless and think about practical, better alternatives that could move us beyond the current dependent economic system – with its roots in our colonial capitalism – which breeds the likes of Lungu in the first place and a pathetically timid, apathetic and impoverished population. Anyone who seeks to consolidate this system must be fought against with the tenacity of a wounded tiger.
Kikikikikikiki what a waste of time and words! You should come to terms with what’s really on the ground down here. Do not interpret UK’s to mean silenece, it is the confidence they have in our to ably handle the issues at play.
2021 Hazaluza Hagain (HH) Kalusa lusa
We pray for peace and maturity to prevail. No one wants civil unrest. Never give civil unrest a chance. Peace and unity must always come first. No jokes aside without peace even this internet you guys love will not be available, there will be no transport, no security for you and your family, no food to buy, no hospitals, there will only be chaos.
Kikikikikikiki what a waste of time and words! You should come to terms with what’s really on the ground down here. Do not interpret UK’s silence to mean discontent, it is the confidence they have in our govt to ably handle the issues at play.
2021 Hazaluza Hagain (HH) Kalusa lusa
Shushuwa calm down, take it easy. Lately you have been fanning chaos with your articles. Clearly you are desperate want your Under installed as President by all means. What for example is wrong with the voters register? Didn’t your Under 5 scream for a fresh voters roll in 2016?
I urge all right thinking Zambians to ignore this desperate man’s calls, he is up to no good. He knows his Under 5 is losing for the sixth time and can’t take it.
Apply more objectivity Mr Shushuwa, these problems you mentioned many of them already existed before the incumbant took over and were in many aspects there as far back as during the UNIP days, when you place an argument try to stick to the actual mistakes people have made and not generalisations or you will diminish the value of your argument. In my opinion and I have voiced this many times is the over bloated upper ruling class holding top office positions that have gobbled our nations resources: over 1000 govt VIPs (upamwambas) entitled to expensive luxury SUVs, huge allowances and salaries, apart from this these same officials use their positions to amass more wealth and by the time they leave office, each one has walked away with a very large piece of the nation’s limited resources…
CHAOS IS NOT BEING FANNED BY ANYONE ALL ARE WANTING PEACE
HOWEVER YOU CANT HIDE THE FACT THE THE PEOPLE OF ZAMBIA ARE TIRED BOTH OF GOVERNMENT AND THE OPPOSITION
SO THERE IS A STALE MATE
THATS WHY PEOPLE ARE ADVOCATING FOR A NATIONAL DEBATE !!! BUT THE GOVERNMENT IS REJECTING THIS AND PREFERS TO DISH OUT HUGE AMOUNTS OF CASH AND GIFTS >>>> SO REALLY WHO IS TOO BLAME HERE A GOVERNMENT WITH 2 SETS OF RULES OR THE OPPOSITION ASKING FOR A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD AND THIS FELLOW ZAMBIANS WILL BRING AN ELECTION NEVER SEEN IN THE 56 YEARS OF OUR INDEPENDENCE
TAKE THAT TO MEAN WHAT YOU MAY ???
We have always said, lungu has single handedly destroyed and corrupted all systems of democratic governance……
Every thing is corrupted under lungu.
Look at the court cases facing CK , those will be dropped or put on silence once he rejoins PF………
90 % of all high profile court cases are politically motivated to fix critics of lungu….
I dislike the psychology of violence, hate, and disorder. Don’t sow seeds of violence in our psychic.
Whoever is paying you or not, just go away, and may God perish your thoughts of violence in the nation.
One Zambia One Nation!
Ctn…we need to take a leaf from the Late Great Tanzanian Leader Magufuli (MHSRIP) who was hard on abuse of govt resources.
This guy is running mad. These are not the first elections in Zambia. The most delicate were held in 1991. What you dream will never happen. Who ever loses should prepare to accept.
As things stand, Lungu has better chances because of his works on the ground. Even in Southern, Western and N.Western he is going to get more votes than ever before. HH knows it and that is why they have already started preparing their petition. So Sishuwa prepare your mind and stop misleading people, PF is going to win on 12th August, and there will be no chaos in Zambia.
Zambians have always been peace loving people. Zambians will decide which way is better for
Them.They have two options. One
To continue what we have or to
Change.Zambians are clever to decide what they want.
He is fannying chaos in our country. He is UPND CADRE WITH NO BRAINS. Think first and be wise. Nothing will happen you cantankaraous character who writes uesless articles on social media.
This boy called Sishuwa Sishuwa should be taken out of UNZA. He runs to South Africa in the name of study leave to finish working on his book when even those he has taught at UNZA tell everyone that the guy freezes in a class of undergraduates. He just fails to lecture and sometimes ends his class midway. I fail to understand how a person claiming to be an academic would want his own country to descend into civil unrest. It is about time he was taken out of UNZA. We have had enough of this charlatan.
“The first step is to stop Lungu from securing an unconstitutional third term in office. The governing Patriotic Front and the Constitutional Court have the responsibility to do so and help prevent the dangerous slide into chaos.”LT
PF time out.
What has emboldened these two factors is the third: the incriminating silence of international, mainly Western, institutions and actors who once spoke out against human rights violations and murderous attacks on democracy and exercised some kind of leverage on the actions of the political elites in power. A key reason for this quietness is the decline in funding to Zambia from major world powers.”LT
PF time out.
If lungu wins in 2021 , expect zambia to be worse than Zimbabwe because zim is rich and can survive gross mismanagement,
Lungu thinks the infrastructure that has cost $17 billion debt will fuel development, he is wrong because this should have happened already, but the debt has outpaced any chance of development. Also the human development in terms of right skills to drive development have been overlooked….
Economic development will never happen under lungu…….maybe in the 2030s, not now.
Misplaced article, what you are advocating can only happen in Congo DRC or Sudan not in Zambia, no youth can shed blood for hh, what would be the benefit of losing a life for a selfish individual like hh who may not even know you if had to come to power.
Prophets of doom shall crumble. Soshuwa don’t ur article lacks substance but just fear of loosing paid for by masters. We have heard about amagedone before. Get a life man
DONT BRING GOD INTO IT !!!!!!!!!!!!! AS HE HAS NEVER INTERVENED IN ANYTHING INCLUDING PERSONAL LIVES SINCE HIS SUPPOSED EXSISTANCE
WASNT IT SAID GOD WILL HELP THOSE WHO HELP THEMSELVES !!!
LITERATELY THAT MEANS SORT IT OR SUFFER
WHY CANT PEOPLE UNDERSTAND THIS SIMPLE LOGIC INSTEAD OF CRYING FOR MERCY ALL THE TIME
ARMAGEDON KIKIKI STILL A MILLION YEARS AWAY SO WHY WORRY
ITS IS A FACT THE WORLD WILL IMPLODE WAY WAY DOWN THE LINE
What has emboldened these two factors is the third: the incriminating silence of international, mainly Western, institutions and actors who once spoke out against human rights violations and murderous attacks on democracy and exercised some kind of leverage on the actions of the political elites in power. “
They are busy dealing with cops that kidnap women in the UK. Plus covid. How blind and misled can one be. Learned guy sushuwa is, but lacking wisdom. Kikiki
The PF will not believe the numbers coming out of Lusaka and Copperbelt, mark my words.
The only reason is because of **** like shishuwa who are inciting violence by claiming election will be rigged even before elections have taken place.
F00ls like these make my blood boil. They talk like this because they are in diaspora and don’t care about the consequences of their words on our country. This is why we need this cyber bill so that we can take legal action against such d0gs. I would literally strangle this guys neck until his eyes turned red and stopped breathing
Shishuwa is a son of a beech. This motherfaka deserve a tyre around head then mulilo
What Sishuwa is saying is that if appropriate measures are not taken the 2021 Elections can turnout to be violent and disputed possibly leading to Social Strife in Zambia. ECZ and Concourt will have to re-think seriously if a violent and disputed Election is going to be avoided. In Tanzania we saw a peaceful and Constitutional Transition of Power from the late Magufuli to Madam Hassan. Madam Hassan was Magufuli’s Running Mate and VP. The Tanzanian and Zambian Constitutions have one Clause in common: “No person shall be elected more than twice to hold the Office of the President”. Madam Hassan took an oath of office and said “I Samia Suluhu Hassan promise to be honest and obey and protect the Constitution of Tanzania”.We hope that ECL took a similar Oath of Office and will ensure…
@St. Luciferous, you and Under 5 will cry rigging when your wishes don’t come to fruition.
This is as close as it gets. When you have a government that sets an armed police force to open fire on civilians and kills innocent Zambians then, the author has facts which are in the public domain. The truth is, some Zambians will never accept that late Nsama Nsama and Joseph Kaunda were killed by a PF police force. To them is typical of a PF adage deceptive mantra ‘Donchi Kubeba’ a tragedy to Zambia.
UNZA must fire this tribal creature called Sishuwa Sishuwa forthwith!
What a wasted person!!Zambia has been having elections since independence and they’ve all been peaceful.Surely,why should we kill each other now?NEVER!!Whether president Lungu or HH loses this year’s elections,normal life shall continue in Zambia!!The Western countries Sishuwa is reffering to live in Zambia and have seen how the PF Govnt have developed Zambia and how peaceful our nation is,hence keeping quiet!!
PF had a strategy to register more members in its strongholds.PF MPs,all party officials encouraged their people to register in large numbers while UPND MPs in their usual stingy way stayed in Lusaka hoping for people in UPND strongholds to register on their own minus being encouraged to do so!!
ZP must…
Zambia is already burning fiercely on the national finances/economics front.Very negative statistical trends for over 6yrs.
This is social science analysis. There’s no knowing exactly wht will happen next as in natural science. But wht is undeniable is that Edgar Lungu has planted the seed that could lead to mayhem in Zambia one day. Sishuwa fears for Zambia and so do I.
Sishuwa’s fears could materialise for the following reasons:
1.The New Voters Roll is not Credible.
2.Lungu’s Third Term is disputable.
3.People don’t have Trust and Confidence in ZPS,ECZ and Concourt.
4.The Cyber Law will close Media, Civic and Political Space for Opposition Parties.
5.The Govt plans to close the Internet and Social Media so that they can steal the Elections secretly.
6. ZPS has been heavily armed to put down riots should people protest against stolen Elections.
For sure if nothing is done to make 2021 Elections free,fair, credible and peaceful Zambia will burn. That inferno will engulf ECZ and Concourt Judges. The writing is on the wall.
Nothing has change since independence … No civil strife..Çhildish article
After a careful analysis of the decline in our living standards in Zambia which by the way started way before even Covid came I will only vote for my party the PF if they field another Presidential candidate and not the incumbent, the incumbent has fared very badly, truth be told. The Zambian currency is the second worst performing currency in the world at a depreciating percentage of 50. All countries have had the same climate change like Zambia and the very same covid, but the leaders there, the drivers in power in all those countries managed to make their situations resilient rather than here in Zambia. I will always remain objective and judge things in a fair manner, my government the PF has lamentably failed.
Thanks Sishuwa, we need peace in our country, and we should all work towards that. And parties must choose hardworking and credible candidates. And must scrutinize those applying critically, for example for PF for Chipata central the only candidate people want on the ground is the former MP Mangani, as people still recall his works. The other candidates are just job seekers having been ejected from their former employments.
Bro Shishua, That is a well articulated article. Don’t mind the insults. The Lord Jesus is in control. The PF party and government is the most greedy and most corrupt Zambia has been under. We are praying them out this August
I refuse to accept that this is Dr Shishu wa’s analysis! Someone if trying to defame him. The reasoning is just too frail for a university don.
True
This type of wording can only come from a chronically ill person with the mind of “tufilile munsenga”. The choice of words or the lack of it is so treasonous to the Republic and utter luck of respect for people with a different view. This contempt, if not checked, will continue to make us the people Zambia look like we are devided. Competition is not division.
This article can be likened to Tony Blairs blabbering about Sadam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction. Lets hope you and your allies don’t intend to create that kind of violence in our peaceful nation.
I have said it times without number that chunshupu sishuwa has been on weed. This unhinged fellow hallucinates alot these days.
Cabin analysis so shallow! So unzambia, so naive.
Ndipo adzalila.
Exactly the way it is, what can one add? Jackals are waiting to remove other jackals, we must reclaim our country from these fiends
Yes much as freedom of expression is enshrined in our constitution it tal so come with responsibility. This article is not only an embarrassment to the academic intelligentsia but also reckless and insensitive and disingenuous for Sishuwa sishuwa to venture into such cheap talk. When we talk of a country as a beckon of peace it requires that those who overate themselves as intellectuals behave in a manner that befits such. This article is best suited for the dust bin.
Luapula Premier
ARE YOU DIM OR DONT WANT TO READ THE SIGNS
2021 WILL BE NOTHING LIKE THE LAST 56 YEARS
AS NODOBY SUFFRED AS BADLY AS THEY ARE DOING NOW
YOU DECIDE WHICH WAY WHAT WAY ???
IS IT PETER SIBANDA ??? WHAT SIZE SHIRT ??? NEED TO BUY YOU A TIE EER
SISHUWA SHOULD BE AT UNIVERSITY OF CHAINAMA BY NOW! HE HAS A VERY GOOD SENSE OF JUDGEMENT IN THAT HE HAS SEEN BEFORE HAND THAT HIS TRIBAL PRESIDENT, WHOM HE WILL SUPPORT TIL DEATH DOES THEM PART IS LOSING MASSIVELY COME AUGSUT2021! I HAVE SAID BEFORE , HICHILEMA CANNOT WIN AN ELECTION IN ZAMBIA, BUT HAS SURPRISED ME OVER THE YEARS BY HIS WEAIRED THINKING THAT HE IS A VERY POPULAR LEADER. HIS NOW “CONSULTANT”, ONE GUY SCOTT, PUT IT VERY CLEARLY IN 2011 WHEN HE SAID “TONGA IS A VERY SMALL TRIBE IN SOUTHERN PART OF ZAMBIA’ WHERE HICHILEMA DRAWS HIS SUPPORT FROM! THE SUPPORT BASE FOR HICHILEMA IS RELATIVELY SMALL FOR TO HIM GANNER THE PRESIDENCY OF THIS COUNTRY! AND TO MAKE IT WORSE ITS TRIBALLY BASED. TONGAS CANNOT SUPPORT ANY OTHER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FROM OTHER PARTS OF ZAMBIA! SO…
Mwe bantu chaba shani kanshi bushe mwalitipwa na corruption nangu shani…,,,.? In fact Sishuwa Sishuwa is advocating for peace in Zambia to continue but in the same realm not to be complacent and blind but to stay alert to make sure free, fair, credible and transparent elections are held in August without fear or favor. We need to be or remain proactive to ensure that due process is followed. That our ballots are protected.