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For Amazon customersquality paper, is now available to purchase. The essential futures market reference guide A Complete Guide to the Futures Market is the comprehensive resource for futures traders and analysts. Spanning everything from technical analysis, trading systems, and fundamental analysis to options, spreads, and practical trading principles, A Complete Guide is required reading for any trader or investor who wants to successfully navigate the futures market. Clear, concise, and to the point, this fully revised and updated second edition provides a solid foundation in futures market basics, details key analysis and forecasting techniques, explores advanced trading concepts, and illustrates the practical application of these ideas with hundreds of market examples. A Complete Guide to the Futures Market: * Details different trading and analytical approaches, including chart analysis, technical indicators and trading systems, regression analysis, and fundamental market models. * Separates misleading market myths from reality. * Gives step-by-step instruction for developing and testing original trading ideas and systems.* Illustrates a wide range of option strategies, and explains the trading implications of each. * Details a wealth of practical trading guidelines and market insights from a recognized trading authority. Trading futures without a firm grasp of this market s realities and nuances is a recipe for losing money. A Complete Guide to the Futures Market offers serious traders and investors the tools to keep themselves on the right side of the ledger.

Table of Contents

About the Authors                                  xv
Part I Preliminaries
  Chapter 1 For Beginners Only                     3  (18)
    Purpose of This Chapter                        3  (1)
    The Nature of Futures Markets                  3  (1)
    Delivery                                       4  (1)
    Contract Specifications                        5  (4)
    Volume and Open Interest                       9  (2)
    Hedging                                        11 (4)
    Trading                                        15 (1)
    Types of Orders                                16 (3)
    Commissions and Margins                        19 (1)
    Tax Considerations                             19 (2)
  Chapter 2 The Great Fundamental versus           21 (6)
  Technical Analysis Debate
Part II Chart Analysis And Technical Indicators
  Chapter 3 Charts: Forecasting Tool or            27 (8)
  Folklore?
  Chapter 4 Types of Charts                        35 (10)
    Bar Charts                                     35 (4)
    Linked Contract Series: Nearest Futures        39 (1)
    versus Continuous Futures
    Close-Only ("Line") Charts                     40 (2)
    Point-and-Figure Charts                        42 (1)
    Candlestick Charts                             43 (2)
  Chapter 5 Linking Contracts for Long-Term        45 (12)
  Chart Analysis: Nearest versus Continuous
  Futures
    The Necessity of Linked-Contract Charts        45 (1)
    Methods of Creating Linked-Contract Charts     46 (2)
    Nearest versus Continuous Futures in Chart     48 (3)
    Analysis
    Conclusion                                     51 (6)
  Chapter 6 Trends                                 57 (26)
    Defining Trends by Highs and Lows              57 (9)
    TD Lines                                       66 (7)
    Internal Trend Lines                           73 (5)
    Moving Averages                                78 (5)
  Chapter 7 Trading Ranges                         83 (8)
    Trading Ranges: Trading Considerations         83 (3)
    Trading Range Breakouts                        86 (5)
  Chapter 8 Support and Resistance                 91 (18)
    Nearest Futures or Continuous Futures?         91 (1)
    Trading Ranges                                 92 (2)
    Prior Major Highs and Lows                     94 (7)
    Concentrations of Relative Highs and           101(5)
    Relative Lows
    Trend Lines, Channels, and Internal Trend      106(1)
    Lines
    Price Envelope Bands                           107(2)
  Chapter 9 Chart Patterns                         109(40)
    One-Day Patterns                               109(13)
    Continuation Patterns                          122(12)
    Top and Bottom Formations                      134(15)
  Chapter 10 Is Chart Analysis Still Valid?        149(6)
  Chapter 11 Technical Indicators                  155(22)
    What Is an Indicator?                          155(2)
    The Basic Indicator Calculations               157(1)
    Comparing Indicators                           157(8)
    Moving Average Types                           165(2)
    Oscillators and Trading Signals                167(3)
    Indicator Myths                                170(2)
    Indicator "Types"                              172(1)
    Conclusion                                     173(4)
Part III Applying Chart Analysis To Trading
  Chapter 12 Midtrend Entry and Pyramiding         177(6)
  Chapter 13 Choosing Stop-Loss Points             183(6)
  Chapter 14 Setting Objectives and Other          189(16)
  Position Exit Criteria
    Chart-Based Objectives                         189(1)
    Measured Move                                  190(4)
    Rule of Seven                                  194(2)
    Support and Resistance Levels                  196(2)
    Overbought/Oversold Indicators                 198(1)
    DeMark Sequential                              199(4)
    Contrary Opinion                               203(1)
    Trailing Stops                                 204(1)
    Change of Market Opinion                       204(1)
  Chapter 15 The Most Important Rule in Chart      205(30)
  Analysis
    Failed Signals                                 205(1)
    Bull and Bear Traps                            205(6)
    False Trend Line Breakouts                     211(2)
    Return to Spike Extremes                       213(3)
    Return to Wide-Ranging Day Extremes            216(3)
    Counter-to-Anticipated Breakout of Flag or     219(3)
    Pennant
    Opposite Direction Breakout of Flag or         222(3)
    Pennant Following a Normal Breakout
    Penetration of Top and Bottom Formations       225(4)
    Breaking of Curvature                          229(1)
    The Future Reliability of Failed Signals       229(2)
    Conclusion                                     231(4)
Part IV Trading Systems And Performance
Measurement
  Chapter 16 Technical Trading Systems:            235(26)
  Structure and Design
    The Benefits of a Mechanical Trading System    236(1)
    Three Basic Types of Systems                   236(1)
    Trend-Following Systems                        237(7)
    Ten Common Problems with Standard              244(3)
    Trend-Following Systems
    Possible Modifications for Basic               247(7)
    Trend-Following Systems
    Countertrend Systems                           254(2)
    Diversification                                256(3)
    Ten Common Problems withTrend-Following        259(2)
    Systems Revisited
  Chapter 17 Examples of Original Trading          261(18)
  Systems
    Wide-Ranging-Day System                        261(7)
    Run-Day Breakout System                        268(5)
    Run-Day Consecutive Count System               273(5)
    Conclusion                                     278(1)
  Chapter 18 Selecting the Best Futures Price      279(10)
  Series for System Testing
    Actual Contract Series                         279(1)
    Nearest Futures                                280(1)
    Constant-Forward ("Perpetual") Series          281(1)
    Continuous (Spread-Adjusted) Price Series      282(3)
    Comparing the Series                           285(2)
    Conclusion                                     287(2)
  Chapter 19 Testing and Optimizing Trading        289(30)
  Systems
    The Well-Chosen Example                        289(2)
    Basic Concepts and Definitions                 291(2)
    Choosing the Price Series                      293(1)
    Choosing the Time Period                       293(2)
    Realistic Assumptions                          295(2)
    Optimizing Systems                             297(1)
    The Optimization Myth                          298(12)
    Testing versus Fitting                         310(2)
    The Truth about Simulated Results              312(1)
    Multimarket System Testing                     313(1)
    Negative Results                               314(1)
    Ten Steps in Constructing and Testing a        315(1)
    Trading System
    Observations about Trading Systems             316(3)
  Chapter 20 How to Evaluate Past Performance      319(28)
    Why Return Alone Is Meaningless                319(4)
    Risk-Adjusted Return Measures                  323(12)
    Visual Performance Evaluation                  335(8)
    Investment Insights                            343(4)
Part V Fundamental Analysis
  Chapter 21 Fourteen Popular Fallacies, or        347(12)
  What Not to Do Wrong
    Five Short Scenes                              347(2)
    The Fourteen Fallacies                         349(10)
  Chapter 22 Supply-Demand Analysis: Basic         359(14)
  Economic Theory
    Supply and Demand Defined                      359(3)
    The Problem of Quantifying Demand              362(1)
    Understanding the Difference between           363(3)
    Consumption and Demand
    The Need to Incorporate Demand                 366(2)
    Possible Methods for Incorporating Demand      368(3)
    Why Traditional Fundamental Analysis           371(2)
    Doesn't Work in the Gold Market
  Chapter 23 Types of Fundamental Analysis         373(6)
    The "Old Hand" Approach                        373(1)
    The Balance Table                              373(1)
    The Analogous Season Method                    374(1)
    Regression Analysis                            375(1)
    Index Models                                   376(3)
  Chapter 24 The Role of Expectations              379(4)
    Using Prior-Year Estimates Rather Than         379(1)
    Revised Statistics
    Adding Expectations as a Variable in the       380(1)
    Price-Forecasting Model
    The Influence of Expectations on Actual        380(1)
    Statistics
    Defining New-Crop Expectations                 381(2)
  Chapter 25 Incorporating Inflation               383(6)
  Chapter 26 Seasonal Analysis                     389(14)
    The Concept of Seasonal Trading                389(1)
    Cash versus Futures Price Seasonality          389(1)
    The Role of Expectations                       390(1)
    Is It Real or Is It Probability?               390(1)
    Calculating a Seasonal Index                   391(12)
  Chapter 27 Analyzing Market Response             403(10)
    Evaluating Market Response for Repetitive      403(10)
    Events
  Chapter 28 Building a Forecasting Model: A       413(4)
  Step-by-Step Approach
  Chapter 29 Fundamental Analysis and Trading      417(22)
    Fundamental versus Technical Analysis: A       417(1)
    Greater Need for Caution
    Three Major Pitfalls in Fundamental Analysis   418(8)
    Combining Fundamental Analysis with            426(1)
    Technical Analysis and Money Management
    Why Bother with Fundamentals?                  427(1)
    Are Fundamentals Instantaneously Discounted?   428(3)
    Fitting the News to Price Moves                431(1)
    Fundamental Developments: Long Term            432(3)
    Implications versus Short Term Response
    Summary                                        435(4)
Part VI Futures Spreads And Options
  Chapter 30 The Concepts and Mechanics of         439(14)
  SpreadTrading
    Introduction                                   439(1)
    Spreads Definition and Basic Concepts          440(1)
    Why Trade Spreads?                             440(1)
    Types of Spreads                               441(2)
    The General Rule                               443(1)
    The General Rule Applicability and             443(2)
    Nonapplicability
    Spread Rather Than Outright輸n Example         445(1)
    The Limited-Risk Spread                        446(2)
    The Spread Trade輸nalysis and Approach         448(1)
    Pitfalls and Points of Caution                 449(4)
  Chapter 31 Intercommodity Spreads:               453(8)
  Determining Contract Ratios
  Chapter 32 SpreadTrading in Stock Index          461(10)
  Futures
    Intramarket Stock Index Spreads                461(1)
    Intermarket Stock Index Spreads                462(9)
  Chapter 33 SpreadTrading in Currency Futures     471(6)
    Intercurrency Spreads                          471(2)
    Intracurrency Spreads                          473(4)
  Chapter 34 An Introduction to Options on         477(10)
  Futures
    Preliminaries                                  477(3)
    Factors That Determine Option Premiums         480(3)
    Theoretical versus Actual Option Premiums      483(1)
    Delta (the Neutral Hedge Ratio)                484(3)
  Chapter 35 Option Trading Strategies             487(72)
    Comparing Trading Strategies                   487(2)
    Profit/Loss Profiles for Key Trading           489(70)
    Strategies
Part VII Practical Trading Guidelines
  Chapter 36 The PlannedTrading Approach           559(8)
    Step 1: Define a Trading Philosophy            559(1)
    Step 2: Choose Markets to Be Traded            560(1)
    Step 3: Specify Risk Control Plan              560(3)
    Step 4: Establish a Planning Time Routine      563(1)
    Step 5: Maintain a Trader's Spreadsheet        563(2)
    Step 6: Maintain a Trader's Diary              565(1)
    Step 7: Analyze Personal Trading               565(2)
  Chapter 37 Seventy-Five Trading Rules and        567(8)
  Market Observations
    Entering Trades                                568(1)
    ExitingTrades and Risk Control (Money          569(1)
    Management)
    Other Risk-Control (Money Management) Rules    570(1)
    Holding and Exiting Winning Trades             570(1)
    Miscellaneous Principles and Rules             571(1)
    Market Patterns                                572(1)
    Analysis and Review                            573(2)
  Chapter 38 50 Market Wizard Lessons              575(14)
Appendix A Introduction to Regression Analysis     589(8)
  Basics                                           589(2)
  Meaning of Best Fit                              591(2)
  A Practical Example                              593(1)
  Reliability of the Regression Forecast           593(4)
Appendix B A Review of Elementary Statistics       597(22)
  Measures of Dispersion                           597(2)
  Probability Distributions                        599(5)
  Reading the Normal Curve (Z) Table               604(2)
  Populations and Samples                          606(1)
  Estimating the Population Mean and Standard      607(1)
  Deviation from the Sample Statistics
  Sampling Distribution                            608(1)
  Central Limit Theorem                            609(3)
  Standard Error of the Mean                       612(1)
  Confidence Intervals                             612(2)
  The t-Test                                       614(5)
Appendix C Checking the Significance of the        619(18)
Regression Equation
  The Population Regression Line                   619(1)
  Basic Assumptions of Regression Analysis         620(1)
  Testing the Significance of the Regression       620(7)
  Coefficients
  Standard Error of the Regression                 627(1)
  Confidence Interval for an Individual Forecast   627(3)
  Extrapolation                                    630(1)
  Coefficient of Determination (rｲ)                630(4)
  Spurious ("Nonsense") Correlations               634(3)
Appendix D The Multiple Regression Model           637(12)
  Basics of Multiple Regression                    637(3)
  Applying the t-Test in the Multiple              640(1)
  Regression Model
  Standard Error of the Regression                 641(1)
  Confidence Intervals for an Individual           642(1)
  Forecast
  Rｲ and Corrected Rｲ                              642(1)
  F-Test                                           643(1)
  Analyzing a Regression Run                       644(5)
Appendix E Analyzing the Regression Equation       649(24)
  Outliers                                         649(1)
  The Residual Plot                                650(1)
  Autocorrelation Defined                          651(1)
  The Durbin-Watson Statistic as a Measure of      651(3)
  Autocorrelation
  The Implications of Autocorrelation              654(1)
  Missing Variables and Time Trend                 655(3)
  Dummy Variables                                  658(5)
  Multicollinearity                                663(3)
  Addendum: Advanced Topics                        666(7)
Appendix F Practical Considerations in Applying    673(12)
Regression Analysis
  Determining the Dependent Variable               673(2)
  Selecting the Independent Variables              675(1)
  Should the Preforecast Period Price Be           675(1)
  Included?
  Choosing the Length of the Survey Period         676(1)
  Sources of Forecast Error                        677(1)
  Simulation                                       678(1)
  Stepwise Regression                              679(1)
  Sample Step-by-Step Regression Procedure         680(1)
  Summary                                          681(2)
  References and Recommended Readings              683(2)
Index                                              685