If you check on my post history, I acknowledge being wrong and the chance of market fuckery. I'll engage because you seem to be concerned with the quality of posts in your own post history. The quote used in The Big Short: "“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” ~Mark Twain exemplifies why I post the way I do here. So yes, I have healthy skepticism on whether the MOASS will actually happen. I do believe it will, but also believe there is a chance it won't. This keeps my research neutral so I only post what the DD says and minimally fall prey to confirmation bias. Skepticism is healthy for the sub, so yours is not unwelcome.

But in this case you are talking about a single quote of mine which I only acknowledge that it MIGHT not happen in a sea of comments that keep finding data which supports the thesis that it will. You also singled out a piece of information where I could gather zero other data, and so used the only pertinent information I could find to give a baseline estimate. I was also transparent about how I did it and that it was an assumption. Assumptions have to be made when we don't have perfect information, and I try my best to make reasonable assumptions and call them out. If this sub were to assume nothing, then we could provide no DD which draws any conclusions. I encourage you to look at the entire analysis and if you don't think my approximation of the retail shares is accurate, maybe you can learn something from the rest of the post. Or maybe you can find an actual error (and not just declared assumption, or even provide a better number to use) and help make the content better!