Probability, Ratios and the Cost of Sex: 1
Let us do another thought experiment-
Compare the cost of ‘unpaid’ sex for a white guy versus an equivalent non-white guy.
Let us assign the probability of success at each stage of the “dating” process for the white guy as Xw, and Xa for the non-white guy.
Under ideal conditions-
Xa(1) + Xa(2 ) .. Xa(n)
————————————— = 1
Xw(1) + Xw(2) .. Xw(n)
n= number of steps till sex happens.
If women prefer the white guy over the equivalent non-white guy, the ratio will be less than 1.
Let us reconstruct this equation to ask the next question-
Xa(1)
—— = ?
Xw(1)
Another way to put it is- what is the differential ratio at each step. It won’t be the same for each step..
For example, if both are making out and the clothes are already off, the ratio is much closer to 1. But the path to sex involves many steps, so the ratios in the previous steps matter. Let us assume a ratio of 0.5 for most steps. So it takes twice the effort or half the success ratio- depending on the step.
It would quickly be obvious to anybody with an elemental grasp of mathematics that even a three-step process would lead to-
0.5*0.5*0.5= 0.125 or 1/8th the chance of success.
Now since sex is not a fraction, that implies that the non-white guy will have to put in the reciprocal of that fraction (8) times the effort of an equivalent white guy- in our three-step example. Note that I have not even considered certain other factors such as the non-white guy not being invited as frequently to parties or get-togethers as the equivalent white guy.
So what does our non-white guy get for putting in all this effort? The same quality of pussy that the equivalent guy got for a fraction of the effort. So why play this game?
Now if the non-white guy paid for a model-level escort, his cost per hour would be equal to the white guy.
Therefore the real question is- at what differential effort level does the cost of paying for sex become less expensive than the ‘unpaid’ route.
The simple answer is- Any three-step process where the differential for each step is below 0.8 (1.25) makes the cost of paid sex a better deal than trying to get the unpaid type. And there is a reason I chose that number- 1.25 * 3 = 3.75 or close to 4.
Under ideal conditions, if each semi-date costs me 20$, and it takes 2 semi-dates to get into her pants (40 $). It would take me a minimum of 160$ for a non-white guy to get any real action, assuming that the white guy could convert each second semi-date into sex. We know the real success rate is much lower, even for white guys with game. A model-level escort can be had for 200- 300$/hr, and the conversion rate is essentially 100%.
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Sorry bro, but your math is wrong. If you define X(i) as the probability of success at each step, then X(i) * X(i+1) * X(i+2) = Probability of succeeding at all three steps. With X(i)=0.5, X(i+1)=0.5, X(i+2)=0.5, the probability of succeeding at all three steps is indeed 0.125, but that’s not what you were looking for. You’re looking for the chance of succeeding at ANY of the steps (not all). To get this, try X(i) + X(i+1) + X(i+2). This gives you a probability of 1.5 for succeeding in your example.
—-
Yes, but getting a phone number, or going for a drink with her is not equal to fucking her. So unless you meet her and fuck her within a couple of hours of meeting her- it is a stepped process.
This can be easily understood with a coin, which has X(i)=0.5. When you flip it three times, you have 1/8th probability of getting a heads on all three trials. But there is 3/2 probability that one will come up heads.
—-
Wish that was the case.
Ah, you did mean that you must succeed at each step. I thought it meant that – X(i)=true => sex – at every step. That works, then.
There are tons of assumptions here, such as these variables are definitely not independent – P(X_i|X_i-1) != P(X_i). But I guess your general statement is still on target.
From a purely utilitarian perspective where sex and money only matter.
“This gives you a probability of 1.5 for succeeding in your example.”
Probabilities are never greater than one, you doofus.
A.D., if I may ask, what WAS your success rate (before you started with escorts), as expressed in terms of (girls closed)/(girls approached)?
——
Hmmm… Something like 1 sexual partner for every 100 mediocre women that I approached.
LOL
Sorry I used the wrong words on a blog comment. X(i)=1.5 indicates that you can expect to see 1.5 successes among the three trials.
math makes my head hurt.
and yes, the steps in the process are each laden with peril, fraught with the potential for mis-step…given the saturation of dudes trying to fuck any one girl, her flakiness is a peril in and of itself.
all the more important for strong frame, b/c the nilly willy weak frame of most guys who only approach when drunk or whatever, or approaching with that clear cut seeking of sex just get blown out b/c they are the shout in a room full of shouts.
HaHaHaHaHa
Typical,
Simplistic, it never is with math and life relation.
Good luck, ‘non-white’ guy.
P.s Nice blog
Now we need to compare the conversion rates for a white guy with zika, vs. a regular guy of another race.
Of course, if the regular guy of another race then wants to buy a girl, he will then be told
“you people corrupt our pure white women” and “you are completely uncivilised”.
Another good example of “the handsome/white guy can do no WRONG, the ugly/ethnic guy can do no RIGHT”:
KIRI: I grew up near Riversdale, not too far from Sky, but somehow we never met. I went to Lincoln University but at the end of my first year got pregnant with my daughter Margot. I moved home and when she was 6 months old, we moved to Wellington so I could complete a BA. Flatting, studying and being a single mother was challenging, but everyone was so supportive I started an MA in Museum Studies.
About halfway through, I went to a 21st in Gladstone that Sky had crashed. He was tall and good-looking and I was like: “OMG who is that guy?” I was gutted he was with a beautiful woman but was so relieved when I found out she was his sister. One of his friends told Sky not to go near me because I had a kid! Thankfully he ignored that advice and it was fireworks between us from the start; I know love at first sight is a cliche, but that’s how it was with us.
I can bet you if it was a “single”(since she didn’t know the other girl was his sister) non-Maori and non-White New Zealander that approached her it would be harassment and an example of rape culture.
When an Asian man recently was acquitted of rape in New Zealand against Jay Jay Feeney because the cameras in his taxi were running, she was “devastated”.
What might have pissed her of was this sequence of events:
In response to Tavae’s question: “Did you ask to be her boyfriend?”, he responded: “No, she’s quite old – she might be 40 or 45”.
Remember “show bobs and vagene” and “bitch lasagne” are only offensive when a non-White person does it.
“Her personality depends upon the attractiveness of your face”
Quick dictionary on women’s dating profile (courtesy WhereAreAllTheGoodMen):
Edit: Thanks to all who contributed. Your entries are included below. To the uninitiated, this translation guide will help as you navigate your way through the maze of modern THOTtery.
Enjoy!
“Made some mistakes” = Slept with a lot of random guys in college. The ones I regret were the mistakes. The rest were “finding myself” (see below).
“Fell Pregnant” = Deliberately had unprotected sex while ovulating.
“Find(ing) Myself” = Engage in promiscuity (traveling optional).
“Strong Independent Woman” = Mandatory statement. My female friends are reading this.
“My kid(s) is/are my world” = I want to sound morally correct after fucking up my entire life. My kids are the only weapon I have.
“Tired of Players” = Tired of players, but cannot resist them either.
“No Hookups” = I will most definitely hook up with the right man. Again. And again.
“Serious” = These bills ain’t gonna pay themselves boys!
“Swipe Left If…” = I don’t want to keep sounding like a total slut. But you know the dilly (wink)
“Looking for a good man” = I am desperately grasping at the last threads of my childhood Disney dreams of finding Alpha Bucks. Please be him!
“Don’t waste my time if… / Got not time for…” = I have had way too much time on my hands, and for years I have wasted it on…
“Let’s see what happens” = I need money, and you know I am going to take it from you, but there is that tiny little chance that I COULD be the girl of your dreams. So, let’s roll those dice big boy!
“I know my worth” = I have a vagina. DUH!
“If you’re not 6ft tall….” = My girlfriends made me write this. If you are not 6 ft tall but have a big dick, then I am Def DTF.
“Ready to settle down” = It’s getting real REEEAAL scary out here. It’s like I hit some invisible wall or something and now men don’t even LOOK in my direction anymore. The other day, some good looking 25 year old guy called me “miss”. FML!
“Done with games” = I think I finally realized that I attracted LOTs of men, but I always chose the bad boys. And they call them BAD boys because they are bad and they lie and play games. I like the sex, but I don’t like the games. Or the lies. Just the sex. And I want babies and money.
“Don’t judge…” = Everyone judges me, and I am sick of it. I want my horrible life choices to be accepted by everyone – especially the man who is going to have to deal with the consequences!
“I prefer…” = Look. I know this is all one big joke. I know I am a washed up, used up, busted up shell of a woman. I also know that my junk looks like a week old roast beef wrap, and I have swallowed more white goop than the entire Hellman’s quality control team. But I am delusional and living in a fantasy world created by Cosmo, and fueled by Thought Catalog lists and red wine. LOTS of red wine. So, since we’re fantasizing, I wish that…
“Have tattoos/Tatted” = Have daddy issues/hate myself on the inside, so might as well match the outside.
“Smoke occasionally” = Smoke whenever the hell I feel like it. Oh, I also like casual sex.
“If you can’t accept me at my worst, then you do not deserve me….” = I look nothing like Marilyn Monroe. But in my delusional mind, because guys hit on me sometimes, I really think I am THAT hot. So prepare for some toxicity in your life – and maybe you’ll get some sex.
“Tired of drama” = Prepare for some drama
“You have to work for this” = I know I am fat and/or ugly, and this is what I say to make myself feel not so bad on the inside. In my dreams, a man comes along and works to gain my trust and respect. In real life I get treated like the village bicycle in Shenzhen.
“Dark Humor is my thing/I speak fluent sarcasm” = Look, I am not that smart. I am just throwing quotes out there because I need to complete this damn profile. I need to get laid. Okay? There. Are you happy now?
“Not looking for a daddy for my kids” = I am looking for a daddy for my kids.
“I won’t settle” = If you are Chad, I will settle for a night. If you look like Shrek, but have a large bank account, I will most definitely settle. I will cheat on you, but I WILL settle.
“Outgoing/like adventures/love to travel” = I cannot afford those things, and I wasted my youth on frivolity, but I don’t want to die without some IG material to show those dumb b!tches at work that I still got it!
“Looking for a nice guy” = Looking for someone I can control with sex.
“If you don’t like kids, swipe left” = I know. I am screwed ok. I know most men will just swipe left anyway, so the best thing I can do is hope to poke the provider instinct button in the few “nice” guys who might take the bait. Most nice guys like babies, so maybe they won’t notice what I did there.
“Don’t hit me up if…” = If you have any sense of self worth, do not hit me up at all.
“Controlling” = My Alpha ex refused to tolerate my BS
“Insecure” = My Beta ex refused to tolerate my BS
“Abusive” = Communicative. (as in “My ex was abusive/communicative with me about his problems with ME (lack of commitment, breaking his trust, etc) and I didn’t need THAT sort of abuse/communication.”)
“Was abused” = I deliberately tried to make my ex jealous by flirting with other men, and he got up in my face about it.
“Entrepreneur” = I am a hairstylist or Multilevel Marketing sucker . Related: “Business owner” = my kids have only eaten cereal for the last three months because I spend 15k on Lululemon leggings and can’t sell them.
“My past doesn’t/shouldn’t matter” = Ron Jeremy himself would be appalled at how much fucking and sucking I’ve done. Oh, and handjobs don’t count, tee-hee!
“It Just Happened” = I was just standing there minding my own business, and all of a sudden, this really good looking guy just sauntered up to me and stuck his dick into my pussy!
“Let’s start as friends/take it slow at first” = I am hoping you are naive or desperate enough to provide commitment without me reciprocating.
“Don’t judge” = “I do the judging, not you.”
“Love to Travel / Want to travel” = 1. I don’t want to work to be an independent woman and expect a man to pay for my lavish trips. 2. I like to go to different cities/countries to bounce on as many random dicks as possible since they don’t count toward my total n-count.
“Sapiosexual” = I like sex with Chad but I am going to make a normal guy work for it and when I am convinced that he has worked enough then I might provide starfish sex for 10 minutes. (usually right after Chad has dropped a load in me so I can baby trap Billy).
“My pics are current” = I can lie with a straight face
“Prove to me that Chivalry is not dead” = I want to be spoiled and pampered and treated like a Lady in Waiting even though I act nothing like a lady and lost my virginity 25 years and 225 cocks ago.
“Foody” = I can’t fucking cook. Don’t ask me to cook for you. Don’t expect me to cook for you. Don’t even think about my kitchen being used for meal prep. My oven is solely used to store pots and pans that still have the store price stickers on them. YOU will be paying for fancy fucking meals at as many trendy (read expensive) restaurants that I can find.
“Looking for Something Real” = I am pumped and dumped with more regularity than my period
“Sick of online dating apps” = Why do unattractive men even bother contacting me?
“Looking for the Spark” = I only get wet for tall fit handsome charismatic bad boys
“Dated” = fucked, slept with, hooked up with. Related: “Had fun” = fucked, hooked up
“We’re talking to each other” = we are texting back and forth to see if I think he is fuck-worthy
“Abusive” = he did and/or said things I did not like.
“Just Friends” = Potential, current or past Sex Partners
This is a good example for many men nowadays – if you point out there is a looks standard, you ruin women’s chances to sleep around without consequence,
and you make many men wary that the woman only wants them for their wallet and won’t reciprocate the pussy.
Go on any feminist forum, and you will find that females find any way to demonize us for expressing our sexuality as an unattractive male. Meanwhile they NEVER hold genetic chads up to this hostile standard and approve of them being sexual.
Ask out a female friend = You were manipulating her into having sex with you. #niceguy
Compliment a female’s appearance = You are sexually objectifying and harassing her, you are a creep and should be punished. #metoo
Being frustrated over being invisible sexually = You are demonized and gaslighted
Understand your looks/genetics make you sexually invisible = You are a terrorist
Have sexual preferences = You are a creep and your standards are too high
Remember, women pursue attractive men. If you aren’t getting pursued, spend your money on whores and other interests, because the woman of this generation that you chase will cost you dearly.
In this article, what was left out is the hours you spend trying to get sex, it varies depending on how attractive she finds you.
For Luke Lazarus of Australia, it only took a few minutes to get anal sex from Saxon Mullins outside Solo nightclub.
And as someone else has observed (paraphrased):
This normie friend told me to put in the work, it would require an extra 20 hours to do his recommendations (and add in 10 more hours per week that I already do), this doesn’t include:
1)20 hours per week entertaining the girl,
2)dinner dates
3)endless talking from her while you be the submissive beta male who is always politically correct.
I calculated it in front of him, he was shocked when I pointed out … effectively, I am going to be working a second job of 40 hours per week, just to put my dick in a stink hole, no deal.
It’s actually Soho nightclub, at Potts Point.
But still, I had the pun-Force rise within me, for some Star Wars references.
“Use the force Luke, put those torpedoes into the exhaust!” … and he got away while there was a glorious explosion after he had unloaded into the rear.