grinch | global report investigating novel coronavirus haplotypes

P.1 report 2021-01-22



Description

Brazilian lineage with variants of biological significants E484K, N501Y and K417T, described in recent virological posts: here and here. P.1 lineage is an alias of lineage B.1.1.28.1. As described in Rambaut et al., 2020 when the lineage heirarchy reaches a certain depth (length of 5) lineage names are given an alias to prevent them from becoming infinitely long.

Data source and processing

This report is recent as of 2021-01-22 17:25 GMT. All SARS-CoV-2 sequences were downloaded from GISAID and genomes were de-duplicated based on GISAID sequence name – note that the publically available metadata may not fully allow us to de-duplicate by patient. Full data processing pipeline found here.

The sequences were then assigned lineages with pangolin v2.1.7, pangoLEARN version 2021-01-11.

Pangolin assigns P.1 to sequences with more than 10 of the 17 defining P.1 SNPs – described here and here

Table 1 | Summary of sequence data

Lineage Country count Country Sequence count Earliest sequence Travel history
P.1 4 Brazil 24, Japan 4, Faroe_Islands 1, South_Korea 1 30 2020-12-04

Lineage P.1

Caveat: Most locations outside the original focus have not reported sustained transmission and many cases have known travel links to the focal location. Increasing numbers of international cases is currently likely due to increased surveillance and vigilance.

Table P.1 | Lineage P.1

Statistic Information
Sequence count 30
Countries with sequences 4
Countries reported 6
Likely origin Brazil
SNPs aa:orf1ab:S1188L
aa:orf1ab:K1795Q
del:11288:9
aa:S:L18F
aa:S:T20N
aa:S:P26S
aa:S:D138Y
aa:S:R190S
aa:S:K417T
aa:S:E484K
aa:S:N501Y
aa:S:H655Y
aa:S:T1027I
aa:orf3a:G174C
aa:orf8:E92K
aa:N:P80R

Figure 1 | Cumulative sequence count over time P.1

2021-01-22T19:19:53.605194 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.3.2, https://matplotlib.org/

Figure 2 | Date of earliest P.1 detected

2021-01-22T19:19:52.859053 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.3.2, https://matplotlib.org/

Figure 3 | Map of P.1 sequence counts

2021-01-22T19:19:53.097437 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.3.2, https://matplotlib.org/

Figure 4 | Sequence count per country P.1

2021-01-22T19:19:53.255257 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.3.2, https://matplotlib.org/

Figure 5 | Frequency P.1 in sequences produced since first new variant reported per country

2021-01-22T19:19:53.730867 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.3.2, https://matplotlib.org/

Figure 6 | P.1 count per continent

2021-01-22T19:19:54.090146 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.3.2, https://matplotlib.org/

Figure 7 | Rolling average P.1 frequency per continent

2021-01-22T19:19:53.897589 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.3.2, https://matplotlib.org/

Figure 8 | Map of P.1 local transmission

2021-01-22T19:19:52.369120 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.3.2, https://matplotlib.org/

Figure 9 | Air traffic from Brazil by destination

The number of ticketed origin-to-destination journeys from Braziliann airports to countries outside Brazil during October 2020.

Colours indicate numbers of published genomes of P.1 deposited on GISAID. Grey bars indicate countries that have reported the presence of the variant but have not yet published P.1 sequences on GISAID. White bars indicate countries with no reports of B.1.351.

Flight data come from the International Air Transportation Association that capture anonymized, passenger-level flight itinerary data, comprising both commercial flights and scheduled charter flights. These data account for ~90% of global air travel volumes, with the remaining volumes modelled using market intelligence. We report data from destinations including >100 passengers.

Note that flight data reflects final-destination on a booked journey, we cannot account for instances where two separate tickets were purchased. Also, this data will not reflect volume of traffic over land or other modes of transport.

Data from Kamran Khan, Isaac Bogoch, Alexander Watts, Oliver Pybus, Moritz Kraemer

2021-01-22T19:19:52.610875 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.3.2, https://matplotlib.org/

Table 2 | Reported P.1 imports.

Country count: 6

Country Earliest report Date local transmission Local transmission Method of surveillance Source
Brazil 2020-12-15 2020-12-15 1 community_sequencing https://virological.org/t/genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-manaus-preliminary-findings/586
Japan 2021-01-12 0 travellers https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/10108-covid19-33-en.html
Italy 2021-01-17 0 travellers https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/italy-bans-flights-from-brazil-after-covid-variant-detected-in-4-passengers-121011700080_1.html
South Korea 2021-01-10 0 travellers GISAID
Germany 2021-01-22 0 travellers https://www.faz.net/aktuell/rhein-main/nachweis-in-frankfurt-neue-corona-mutation-in-deutschland-17159476.html
Faroe Islands 2021-01-12 0 travellers https://local.fo/in-a-first-european-case-brazilian-coronavirus-variant-confirmed-in-the-faroe-islands/

Table 3 | Raw data for figures in the report.

Country Earliest sequence Number of variant sequences Total sequences since first variant sequence
Faroe Islands 2021-01-12 1 1
Brazil 2020-12-04 24 79
Japan 2021-01-02 4 4
South Korea 2021-01-10 1 1