Estimates generated using only confirmed cases and testing data from The COVID Tracking Project. For county infection estimates, we use county case data from Johns Hopkins CSSE. For this project, we are nowcasting (what has happened/is happening) rather than forecasting (what will happen). See Youyang's blog for recommendations of forecasting models. See our methodology writeup here. You can download the raw estimates here.
Note #1: Due to the inherent lag in the reporting of cases, we do not have estimates of infections for the last 14 days. Note #2: Because not all infected individuals are infectious, we recommend dividing the "currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of "currently infectious" individuals. Note #3: These are merely estimates and are by no means definitive. Please be sure to also consult other sources, such as published reports and serology studies.