Lillian Belle

There is a suburban GOP-held House seat that Romney won by 15%+ and Trump won by 10%+. Today, at least two private surveys I've seen have Trump *down* 10%+ there. In the past few weeks, I've heard the word "bloodbath" uttered in multiple convos w/ GOP pollsters/ad makers.

Lillian Belle

@LillianBelle2

2時間

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@ToddTheOdd

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@ElyEelee

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Kill me

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Evil evil

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Classy argument

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You want more?

Voters Really Did Switch To Trump At The Last Minute

Donald Trump’s somewhat surprising win has forced many political analysts to wonder: Were we wrong all along in thinking Hillary Clinton had the upper hand, or …

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People aren’t a business

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You are wrong

How America decided, at the last moment, to elect Donald Trump

How late-deciders snatched victory from the jaws of the Clinton campaign.

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The polls were barely off nationally. They were on average 0.4 points off on Election Day. Undecided voters broke for Trump and he won by 70,000 votes spread across 3 states

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There’s the margin of error and the undecideds breaking for Trump. A margin of error is dependent on the poll and is not a constant

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Well I don’t know who you’re gonna say I told you say. But I’ll say I told you so on Election Day

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I’ll personally be upset because I have access to my emotions

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Are you aware of what the margin of error is?

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It’s a fact

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You are conveniently using the one state where that information didn’t apply. Wisconsin was the only state out of the margin of error. This is classic confirmation bias

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Gladly

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It was not that off. It was about three points

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Those are called conservative Democrats like in WV and SW Washington. They’ve been voting for Democrats for some time. It’s just like the suburban Republican in places like Arizona

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I look forward to rubbing this in your face

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Why don’t you try to debate me with facts instead of name calling and thinking that pointing out I have pronouns in my bio is some kid of sick burn. And for your information it only took 5 seconds

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Primary model isn’t reliable, Polls have enthusiasm tied, we are in a post Covid economy, the Democratic Party is United as seen in polls simply because they all oppose the president

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Actually now that you say that. Polls in all of those places has Hillary’s margin almost exactly right. Undecided voters broke overwhelmingly for Trump in light of the comey letter. Polling in those areas also stopped before Election Day giving no adequate comparison

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I never said that. I’m not arguing that it’s one sided. I’m arguing that voter registration isn’t a proper metric

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Late registration yes but the Democratic Party all registered before the primary because there was a competitive primary and the Republicans did not have one. There was a good two years where Democrats were blowing Republicans out of the water

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Where is your conclusion then

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Dirty Tricks: 9 Falsehoods that Could Undermine the 2020 Election

The Nine Falsehoods that Could Undermine the 2020 Election.

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That is not disproving me. Contradicting date proves me wrong not you emotional state

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Provide the proof then

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Democrats registered before the primary because they had a competitive primary unlike the Republicans and the only state showing this sign is Florida

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Name them

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Prove me wrong then

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Do you have any knowledge of the American political system or do you just wish to shill for the president

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Literally this is in no way true

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That’s a very linear way of thinking of it. It isn’t simply new voters. There are people changing parties in places like West Virginia who are just getting around to changing their registration