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Here's 538's prediction of vote swing this Nov based on their current popular vote modeling. It's interesting that they are seeing several deep red states moving back towards Biden. It's also worth noting that many of the states DJT has to have have moved the least TX, FL, GA, NC

午後8:33 · 2020年10月1日Twitter Web App

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さん

I think he also has to have MI, PA and WI, and they moved way past the margin he won them by the last time.

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Trump still has paths to victory if he loses those states, but if Biden takes any of those 4 it becomes real difficult to find a path.

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Interesting side bet - the model has Trump improving over Biden in DC. Methinks that won’t be happening

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Trump only got 5% of the vote last time. I don't think theirs much room to fall any further.

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Shouldn’t Hawaii be red too (“-1.4%”)?

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No I must of fat fingered a - when I overlaying the numbers. It was 1.4% swing Dem.

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Jeff Mustonen, lifelong Kraken fan

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8.7% in Ohio and 3% in FL would both be pickups. And a landslide.

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There are a handful of states OH, NC, FL and to some extent AZ & GA that 538 has within a couple points. 538 has 1/5 chance of a trump win but 1/2 chance of a Biden beating Trump by 200+ In the Electoral College.

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What is CA based on? I’ve only seen one statewide poll

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At least one recent one. I see on RCP they have a bunch

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What's up with Hawaii

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I'm not sure why there is a dash there. It just has a 1.4% shift. Some of the most Democratic areas just don't have much more room to grow which is why DC, CA, IL, HI, VT are all some of the smallist shifts left

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さん

It’s worth noting that the IL projection is based off of just one public poll released this entire year

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Oregon Is Safe R

@OrgEaglePatriot

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@kilometerbryman

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Well I’ll admit, “Appalachia isn’t coming back” was not the best take of mine

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যা হবে দেখা যাবে

Those swings aren’t large enough to actually get any electoral college votes though

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レインボーフラッグ

@alwaysadorecats

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I honestly, genuinely don't see where Trump has room to grow here in Illinois. Any gains from rural areas and would be very much outweighed by losses in the collar counties and other suburbs, not to mention increased turnout in Chicago.

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I suppose there is some room to grow in the collar counties, though I think Lake and DuPage counties are strong democrat now. Counties such as DeKalb and Kane went for Hillary by less than 10% and McHenry and Kendall could improve their 2016 margins for Trump, its a stretch tho.

@Fran_Neena20409

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交差させた指

交差させた指

交差させた指

交差させた指

クリスマスツリー

ジャック・オ・ランタン

メキシコ国旗

レバノン国旗

ジャック・オ・ランタン

クリスマスツリー

@StephieTheLefty

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Good stuff! Though I think 538 is wrong on Texas. It's gonna move more than 5. It may not move the full 10 it takes to flip it, but unless Trump pulls a miracle in the next 30 days it's gonna move at least 8-9%

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Wear a Mask to Save Lives

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Utah moving leftward at all is surprising

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ラブレター

2016 minor candidate support was ~27% in Utah, so they must be splitting roughly equally. There's a lot of conservative McMullin and Johnson supporters who aren't going home to the GOP.

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10.2% in Oklahoma. I wonder how much of that is attributable to the fact that it is not Hillary? They really hate her here. Like hate significantly more than they ever hated “Obummer” It’s wild.

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@SeedsAndBreeds

wow, 10% is something. First you guys enact some amazing criminal justice reforms, then win a major sovereignty battle at SCOTUS. What is in the water??? (and, I can have some?)

@SeedsAndBreeds

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It's important to note that for some states, like Idaho, that shift is not enough to shift their electoral votes. Idaho and others are still projected to stay red (with respect to their electoral votes).

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Pietro Luigi Borgia

Sure, but if Biden improves in those red states, his performance might help other downballot democrats.

Jeff Mustonen, lifelong Kraken fan

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I got my eye on Montana and Iowa. Potentially big implications for the Senate.

ジャック・オ・ランタン

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I honestly think NH moves more than that.

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Their analysis is really awful.

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This thread is some kind of leftist dreamland

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オレンジ色の正方形

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LOL are y’all insane?

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(Alex)ander The Great

アメリカ国旗

メキシコ国旗

キツネの顔

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Delusion

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Start by halving your medication, then monitor daily.

Daddy Stovepipe

@Vapor_of_Vapors

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This is about as real as sasquatch.

00DD02–HereWeGo

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口を開けて笑っている顔

口を開けて笑っている顔

口を開けて笑っている顔

大爆笑

大爆笑

大爆笑

ヒマワリ

ヒマワリ

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OK is gonna see a huge swing, I think OKC is finished as R territory after this election

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ジャック・オ・ランタン

アザラシ

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methinks 2020 will be the start of a major political realignment

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I think it has more to do with Hilary Clinton being a very unpopular candidate in those states so the Republican candidate overshot the trend line & we are just regressing to the mean more then a political realignment.

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NEOLIB BOYS, STAND BACK AND STANDBY

子午線・経線のある地球

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A lot of that looks like the Appalachian whites turned strongly towards the Republicans in 2008 and 2012. What made the Democratic candidate in those years so very different from the ones before and after?

考えている顔

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this feels more like psychological/emotional projection

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アメリカ国旗

アメリカ国旗

アメリカ国旗

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Bwahahahaha

GIF

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GIF

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