Shinzo Abe hospital visit stokes speculation over successor

The surprise visit to Shinzo Abe’s hospital has led to growing speculation about his political future as his rivals maneuver for the chance to succeed Japan’s longest-serving prime minister.

Officials insist that Mr Abe’s one-day visit to Keio University Hospital on Monday was for a routine medical check-up, but this added to concerns over his passive response to the Covid outbreak. 19 in Japan.

Even though health fear comes to nothing, Mr Abe is only one year away from his final term as head of the ruling Liberal Democrats, shining the spotlight on potential successors such as Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba, both former ministers and party leaders. factions.

Mr Abe’s tenure as head since 2012 has brought Japan a long period of stability, but the hospital visit highlights that a new leader will soon take over, raising questions about the future. current stimulating economic policies.

“Until the end of June, he was working 147 days in a row, so it is quite normal that he is not feeling well,” said Taro Aso, Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister, after the hospital visit.

What he has been trying to build for seven years with Abenomics is down

“I think it’s obvious, so I told him he had to take a break. Managing your own health is part of her job. “

Mr Abe suffers from ulcerative colitis, a chronic inflammatory disease, which contributed to the end of his first and brief term as Prime Minister from 2006-07. The discovery of a drug that helped him control the disease allowed him to make a political comeback.

However, speculation about Mr Abe’s health had increased even before his hospital visit, with the prime minister looking tired and refusing to hold a press conference for the past two months.

A television station even tracked the time it takes for the prime minister to go from the entrance of his office to the elevator: it now takes 21 seconds for Mr Abe, TBS said, up from 18 seconds in April.

Mr Abe’s growing invisibility has added to a sense of political drift after Covid-19 derailed the Prime Minister’s progress towards his long-term goal of ending deflation and reviving. Japanese economy. Gross domestic product has fallen for three consecutive quarters, and prices are only up 0.1% from a year ago.

“What he had been trying to build for seven years with Abenomics has collapsed,” said Masatoshi Honda, a political analyst. “He tried to revise the constitution, but it is becoming impossible.

“He tried to make a peace treaty with Russia [over the disputed Kuril Islands], but it’s impossible. He tried to bring the abductees back from North Korea, but it was not possible. His last goal was the Tokyo Olympics but at the moment it’s a big question whether they can continue even next year. “

Mr Abe’s approval rating is 34% according to a follow-up poll by public broadcaster NHK, with 47% of the public disapproving, the worst numbers since his second term as prime minister in 2012.

Soldier to the Olympics is an option for Mr Abe, but if he’s ready to go, there are political advantages to doing so this fall.

“Mr. Abe wants to make sure that Mr. Ishiba cannot become prime minister,” said Takao Toshikawa, editor of political bulletin Tokyo Insideline. Mr. Ishiba is a longtime rival, and if he were to win the succession, Mr. Abe would lose control of his party and his legacy.

If Mr Abe steps down before the end of his three-year term as LDP leader in 2021, then there will be an instant contest to succeed him, in which only MPs can vote. If he waits another year, there will be a large-scale competition in which members of the regional party can participate as well.

“If they are only Diet members, whoever Mr Abe approves will have the advantage,” Toshikawa said. There are a number of possible candidates for Mr Abe to support, but one of the favorites is Mr Kishida, chairman of the powerful political research council of the LDP.

Mr. Kishida is a low-key figure, but he is seen as a moderate and easiest candidate for unity among the various PLD factions around which to unite.