PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING COVID-19:A WARNINGThis version drafted March 21, 2020by u/ilikelegoandcrackers, via reddit. For latest version, see thispost, which will be continuously updated.If you just want to learn how to reduce your risk of catching COVID-19, scroll down to the "Risk Reduction" section. However, to appreciate the full scope of the challenge ahead, you are encouraged to carefully read this entire document, which will be updated regularly as long as it stays on the front page of your sub.The aim of this document is simple: it's best to walk into something knowing what you're about to face. It also aims to reduce anxiety, panic, and misinformation by arming you with key sourced information, all without downplaying the risks of COVID-19.The document has gone through hundreds of iterations thanks to global community feedback, including from places such as Seattle, LA, Australia, and Canada. Although all facts are meticulously sourced from experts in their fields, you are responsible for your own health and your own research. Further, contextualization of information remains an ongoing challenge, as does keeping up with a fluid situation. Final word will always belong to the health authorities, as well as the mods of this subreddit.Now brace yourself, because this is going to suck a little bit.CONTEXT:A recent in-depth studyhas shown just how incredibly infectious COVID-19 is. Unfortunately, its spread has not slowed, and the virus has only been halted through stringent physical distancing measures.In other words, and as the Director of the WHO himself has said, this is not a drill.The bad news:There are currently over 300,000global confirmed cases of COVID-19, and the WHO recently classified itas a pandemic. Now it seems that it has arrived upon your doorstep, which means there is likely exponential and silent human-to-human transmission in the community.The good news:knowledge is a weapon that defeats these things. It worked in 1918 against the Spanish Flu, when we essentially stopped the medieval practice of blood-letting (you know when they drained you of blood because they thought that would cure whatever ailed you? Or leeching?). And it worked against many other outbreaks since: Smallpox, MERS, SARS, Ebola, etc. The WHO's tackling of Smallpox alone was nothing short of scientific heroism.And so, a hundred years after 1918, here we are again, facing perhaps the greatest test of our generation.The problem is that these days we're inundated with so much information that, when a real threat comes along, it's buried under a mountain of clutter. And although this document is not all-encompasing by any means, hopefully it will help you see through some of that clutter, as well as give those new to the threat an opportunity to hit the ground running.So go ahead and meet your foe. Do not underestimate it.
Now prepare to go to war.IMPORTANT:•The main mode of transmission is via respiratory droplets: coughing, sneezing, and breathing.But you can also get it through shaking hands, kissing somebody who is sick, or touching a contaminated surface (droplet dispersion; think of a cough plume settling). This can include handrails, doorknobs, elevator buttons, and surfaces prone to a droplet dispersion cloud. "Cough dispersion" basically means anytime a sick person coughs, they're dispering a plume of droplets over a given area. The viral particles within those droplets then settle on ordinary surfaces. People touch those surfaces then touch their phones or their faces, which in turn lead to contact with their eyes, mouth, or nose, inducing infection. Therefore it is best tokeep a 6 ft "coughing distance" from people, and treat everything you touch in public as if it's been contaminated (see the "Risk Reduction" section below). Here'san excellent short video on the topic.Read a little more on the subject here.•[AWAITING PEER REVIEW, BUTIS GAINING ACCEPTANCEIN THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY]There now appears to be evidence the virus can spread through breathing. Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota: "The findings [of the study] confirm that COVID-19 is spread simply through breathing, even without coughing. Don't forget about hand washing, but at the same time we've got to get people to understand that if you don't want to get infected, you can't be in crowds. Social distancing is the most effective tool we have right now."Source.(Crucial to understand: the research specifies patients who are symptomatic, and makes no claims about asymptomatic transfer.) UPDATE:Dr. Osterholm just went on the Joe Rogan show to explain the situation. Although the show itself has been known to be controversial, the Doctor's credentialsspeak for themselves.•[AWAITING PEER REVIEW]A new study indicates COVID-19 can survive in the air for up to 3 hours, and several days on surfaces, depending on the surface (up to 3 days on plastic, up to 2 days on metal, up to 1 day on cardboard). (Article| Study). Here's a shadowgraph imagingof people breathing (source). Unfortunately it is a bit misleading as it does not show drop dispersion, but gets the point across.•[AWAITING PEER REVIEW]New analysis seems to indicate infected people without symptoms might be driving the spread of coronavirus more than we realized (CNN link, with links to multiple studies in the article). This is corroborated by Dr. Norman Swan on March 14th, via ABC Australia, who says "you areinfectious beforethe symptoms come out, there's no question about that." The WHO says you are infectious for about 48 hours prior to showing first symptoms. (Source 1: Dr. Swan: see minute mark 4:02 in this health alert video), (Source 2). ALERT: It is now generally believed that this is the reason the virus is taking so many communities by surprise: it spreads during that crucial asymptomatic/low-symptom stage.•WARNING:March 16th Article, based on fresh research: "80% of COVID-19 spreads frompeople who don't know they are sick" ( Article| Study| Discussion 1| Discussion 2)•WARNING: We are past containment. It is now vital to flatten the curveand implement physical distancing measures.•Up to 1 in 5 infected people may require hospitalizationsource 1, source 2. But this is an oversimplification as the metric skews toward the elderly and those with comorbidities (see the Mortality/Comorbidities section below). Plus the metrics differ based on region and testing capacity. Excellent short videoon the topic.