Emadeddin Badi

@emad_badi

Policy Leader Fellow | Non-Resident Scholar | alumni | Researcher focusing on & beyond

Florence, Tuscany
mei.edu/experts/emaded…
Joined December 2015
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    17 Dec 2019

    A frozen & an incoherent hamper 's Berlin process on . Yet, -backers' maneuvering also ripens the landscape for cooperation between an assertive & a machiavellian . My latest 's

    2 replies 62 retweets 115 likes
  2. 9 hours ago

    That's because one state amongst the four is blocking the joint statement on the blockade. Not a great look a day after the meeting at Berlin, & not a great omen for the Berlin communiqué's fate at the .

    . In June 2018, US, UK, France and Italy jointly denounced the attempt to sell oil outside NOC. This time, there is an actual blockade but only US react.
    3 retweets 9 likes
  3. 10 hours ago

    Above dynamics, when viewed holistically, demonstrate that the narrative that 's provides "security" in the East is a fallacy. So is the notion that only the is corrupt. The only difference is there is little to no access to shed light on this in Cyrenaica.

    1 reply 5 retweets 8 likes
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  4. 10 hours ago

    Aside a section on developments in West Libya (primarily on the aftermath of Haftar's offensive, its impact on civilians & mercenaries' involvement), the report provides a rare glimpse of the situation in Eastern , w/ labelled "hub for illicit economic activities"

    1 reply 4 retweets 4 likes
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  5. 10 hours ago

    On the opposing side, the GNA carried out 250 airstrikes. The report attributes the recent military academy massacre to "aircraft affiliated with the Libyan National Army", though Salamé was quoted mentioning a foreign state () was likely responsible.

    1 reply 4 retweets 10 likes
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  6. 10 hours ago

    Latest UNSMIL report issued on 15th of Jan was obfuscated by other Libya developments (Moscow ceasefire/Berlin) but contains useful info. A rare reference to 60 precision strikes by foreign fighter jets conducted on behalf of Haftar's LAAF on West Libya.

    1 reply 15 retweets 42 likes
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  7. 15 hours ago

    Does dislike ? Probably. His offensive raised the stakes for instability in Eastern Libya ( is pragmatic enough to realize capturing is easier said than done) & strong-armed into supporting him. Can Sissi just abandon Haftar? Not really.

    2 replies 3 retweets 17 likes
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  8. 15 hours ago

    This alleges is pulling back support for , which makes no sense. Militarily speaking, is doing a minimum right now. Politically, there's no way will suddenly be accommodating of a pluralistic setup in neighbouring .

    4 replies 6 retweets 36 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    20 hours ago

    The new UN Panel of Experts on Sudan report contains many useful snippets for Libya watchers - all the more useful as the latest Libya PoE report was actually quite sloppy on the issue of Sudanese and Chadian fighters in Libya. Short thread.

    2 replies 54 retweets 71 likes
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  10. 21 hours ago

    "The situation in provided oil prices an early boost but the rally fizzled out as expectations remain that Libya’s oil production will eventually return to normal levels"

    5 retweets 11 likes
  11. 21 hours ago

    For the record, this isn't an attempt to bash the Berlin Process. Diplomats like worked tirelessly to make the process a success regardless of the obstacles in the way. The onus is now on the UNSC, & the stakes are pretty high.

    As the attention re will shift to New York today, this is how UN Secretary-General sees the Berlin Conference on Libya.
    1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
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  12. 21 hours ago

    As for the utility of the "follow-up committees", I'll borrow Guterres' words: you can't follow-up on something that doesn't exist. If a plan isn't endorsed - & since the "truce" is barely holding - it'll be difficult for Europe to credibly lead a political process on Libya.

    2 replies 5 retweets 9 likes
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  13. 22 hours ago

    If the plan isn't endorsed, the only achievements of Berlin would be reiterating interventionism is bad, getting a non-binding commitment from external players not to intervene in Libya & getting Haftar to nominate 5 people for the 5+5 Military Committee. Hardly a breakthrough.

    2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
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  14. 22 hours ago

    The Berlin Communiqué along with its operational plan have been referred to the Security Council by the German Mission to the United Nations . The UNSC has failed to tackle 's civil war. It can begin correcting this by endorsing the plan with a resolution.

    4 replies 9 retweets 30 likes
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  15. Jan 20

    (Haftar is flanked by his cousin & his son-in-law, both of the Ferjan tribe which Haftar hails from).

    2 retweets 14 likes
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  16. Jan 20

    The picture in question captures the contradiction between the nationalist narrative of the & 's personal ambitions.

    3 replies 13 retweets 31 likes
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  17. Retweeted
    Jan 20

    Asked about Syrian fighters joining the Tripoli battle, GNA head Fayez Serraj tells the BBC his government does not hesitate to cooperate with any party to counter Haftar’s offensive, now in its 10th month.

    0:44
    قال رئيس الحكومة المعترف بها دوليا في ليبيا…
    11 replies 23 retweets 30 likes
  18. Retweeted
    Jan 20

    On Monday, less than 24 hours after world powers agreed to halt arms shipments to ’s warring sides, men in northern Syria were still signing up to fight for the Turkish-backed government in Tripoli. By

    8 replies 56 retweets 64 likes
  19. Retweeted
    Jan 20
    Replying to

    is the trip still on? Because, Russian sources say that the meeting w/Putin is not in the official schedule

    1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
  20. Jan 20

    Haftar's trip to today is as important as the itself. The degree of Russian support to Haftar will determine whether the current truce is a lull or a ceasefire. It'll also affect whether Russia uses its veto at UNSC to obstruct Berlin's communique.

    4 replies 14 retweets 30 likes
  21. Jan 20

    This dynamic is one to heed re , particularly given mercs' involvement on 's side. Not all facets of Syria are comparable w/ Libya, but this one is. does not see controlling Libya, but his control of is real & useful to .

    Russian companies that signed exploration contracts w/Syria a month ago are connected to E. Prigojin, who is also behind Wagner group. Velada and Merkuriy signed deals with Syrian gov to explore Block 7 (north of Damascus) and Block 22 (east of Euphrates). …
    4 retweets 20 likes
  22. Jan 20

    : "The fact is that the steps we have taken regarding have brought a balance to the process and a ceasefire ground has been formed. We will continue to support the political process by keeping your position strong both on the field & at the table"

    Erdoğan reply to this question: “I have already told Mr. Putin that I cannot accept to…
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    9 retweets 16 likes
  23. Jan 20

    Or in Libyan terms... حفتر مشي يقيل في برلين

    "At one point Haftar, who is said to like a late afternoon nap, left the Chancellory and returned to his hotel. When it was time to brief him, officials were told that he was 'resting,' according to a western diplomat."
    7 retweets 26 likes
  24. Retweeted
    Jan 20

    Libia tra petrolio, guerra e alleanze: cosa sta succedendo e cosa cambia dopo Berlino Ne scrivo per ⁦⁩ ⁦⁩ ⁦⁦⁩ ⁦⁩

    3 replies 50 retweets 97 likes
  25. Jan 20

    's offensive, the - MoU, the - ceasefire meeting... All are events that approached reactively, not w/ balance. 's yo-yoing from one pole to another has greatly diminished its credibility, weakening its political capital within

    Libia tra petrolio, guerra e alleanze: cosa sta succedendo e cosa cambia dopo Berlino Ne scrivo per ⁦⁩ ⁦…
    2 replies 5 retweets 25 likes
  26. Jan 19

    My honest take (earlier today) regarding the past 10 months of international maneuvering surrounding after 's offensive & the optics of today's for .

    1 reply 15 retweets 57 likes
  27. Jan 19

    For the record, given the profile of state reps present today in , the fact the only tangible outcomes are a communiqué, a commitment to halt interventionism (pending ceasefire agreement), a tenuous truce & Haftar nominating reps for the 5+5 committee is underwhelming.

    7 retweets 22 likes
  28. Retweeted
    Jan 19

    Just as press conference ended at the summit on , unknown forces fired off tank shells across the night sky & drones fly overhead as to say: w/out talking to real ’ns on the ground, chances of success remain goal & not yet a reality for Intl community

    1 reply 20 retweets 16 likes
  29. Jan 19

    On sanctions for arms embargo violations, Merkel explained that their communiqué would be going to the Security Council for approval... The same UNSC that failed to pass a resolution on a ceasefire in 9 months ago. I wouldn't hold my hopes up.

    For the record, a commitment of the Libyan sides' backers to stop fuelling the war has been agreed upon, but this commitment is somewhat dependent on Libyan parties' acceptance of a ceasefire - something which isn't entirely certain. This is a key nuance.
    3 replies 10 retweets 25 likes
  30. Jan 19

    For the record, a commitment of the Libyan sides' backers to stop fuelling the war has been agreed upon, but this commitment is somewhat dependent on Libyan parties' acceptance of a ceasefire - something which isn't entirely certain. This is a key nuance.

    11 retweets 29 likes
  31. Jan 19

    Unless I missed something, there was no mention of the fact Haftar engineered an oil blockade that has - as of today - de-facto slashed Libya's oil ouput by some ~800k bp/d. Not sure how this will be dealt with, w/ much of the consequences being borne by ordinary Libyans.

    2 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
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  32. Jan 19

    In essence, it's now incumbent upon backers of the 2 coalitions to coerce/convince them to accept a ceasefire - or else the escalation may continue. One of the areas of progress made today was Haftar nominating his representatives to discuss turning the truce into a ceasefire.

    1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
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  33. Jan 19

    Another alarming point: "There was a regional escalation of the conflict in that could have taken place which has now been halted in Berlin. This won't happen provided the local parties commit to a ceasefire". Not sure this is a good omen.

    2 replies 10 likes
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  34. Jan 19

    Gutteres: "What we have now is a truce. We cannot monitor something that doesn't exist, we need parties to commit to a ceasefire. All participants today agreed that a military solution is not possible, & they also agreed to pressure their local allies to commit to a ceasefire".

    1 reply 8 retweets 35 likes
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  35. Jan 19

    & purportedly abruptly left the hotel where the conference is held. Not a great sign considering any deal that is brokered without the buy-in of & will face operational drawbacks by design.

    Still waiting for the Merkel/UN press conference to start to see if any progress has been made on at this conference. Both Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin have now left Berlin.…
    2 replies 34 retweets 52 likes
  36. Retweeted
    Jan 19

    The only constructive move that could be taken in the Berlin summit is if a ceasefire is signed and mechanisms are put in place to enforce that ceasefire, Emadeddin Badi from the European University Institute says

    1 reply 11 retweets 23 likes
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  37. Jan 19

    There's a joke in there somewhere about accepting a ceasefire starting 24:01...

    2 retweets 10 likes
  38. Jan 19

    Just cracked up at the exchange below but also at the thought of Haftar speaking French

    - Come on now, be honest, was it really the tribes that shut down the oil? - But no, Emmanuel. Le pétrole, c’est moi.
    3 replies 6 retweets 37 likes
  39. Retweeted
    Jan 19

    Macron Haftar meeting

    4 replies 14 retweets 26 likes
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  40. Retweeted
    Jan 19

    The Red Society of Tripoli honors the family of the martyr at our exhibition On the memory of his first death

    17 replies 24 retweets 81 likes
  41. Jan 19

    For the record, things calmed down now in . Volatile is the word.

    Meanwhile in ...
    3 replies 6 retweets 22 likes