Jalel Harchaoui

@JMJalel_H

Research fellow at dedicated to covering security, politics & justice.

clingendael.org/person/jalel-h…
Joined April 2014
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  1. Retweeted
    28 Dec 2019

    In Oct-Nov, all the pro- capitals became filled w/ hubris & optimism about an imminent entry into downtown . But prior to that, the experienced several weeks of uncertainty. Long read from the team (featuring my thoughts).

    2 replies 25 retweets 41 likes
  2. 59 minutes ago

    lately has shored up the protection of the GNA side installing air-defense systems & jamming devices, which do thwart substantially the ’s mastery of the skies. The facet above is *more* of a game-changer than mercs, & I exhort the press to cover it.

    2 replies 10 retweets 26 likes
  3. Retweeted
    2 hours ago

    There was legitimate hope re conf. Afterwards, it is another disappointment : -eans wasted an opportunity to find a bit of redemption on the -n file against and -n diplo. Is there really a non-military option to this stage?

    meddlers in the conflict left “without the warring parties having agreed to a formal ceasefire. Plus, at this juncture, no real mechanism was introduced to truly enforce the arms embargo.”…
    4 retweets 5 likes
  4. 3 hours ago

    “Erdogan is not a genius. It is bcos Europe was way slow that Turkey could achieve all those things in Libya. Same w/ Russia. These 2 non-Western powers wouldn’t have had the luxury to be able to entrench themselves if France was careful about not injecting division w/in the EU.”

    With American leadership distracted the world suffers —European splits threaten Libyan peace deal hopes
    6 replies 16 retweets 36 likes
  5. Retweeted
    8 hours ago

    Thread on !. The 3 “results” of the Berlin Conference according to my understanding. Please correct me if any of the 3 following linked tweets is wrong. Cc

    2 replies 7 retweets 11 likes
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  6. 11 hours ago

    meddlers in the conflict left “without the warring parties having agreed to a formal ceasefire. Plus, at this juncture, no real mechanism was introduced to truly enforce the arms embargo.” The outcome from isn’t impressive the slightlest bit.

    Foreign powers vow to halt interference in Libya conflict
    6 replies 47 retweets 72 likes
  7. Retweeted
    13 hours ago

    Libya summit falls short on ceasefire, instead calls on parties to redouble efforts to reach one. From final communique:

    4 replies 54 retweets 32 likes
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  8. Retweeted
    14 hours ago

    Q from what if arms embargo is violated? Will there be sanctions? Merkel: “There was no talk on sanctions..documents agreed here will go to UNSC for approval..if ceasefire is violated..well, we’ll have to wait and see”

    12 replies 29 retweets 41 likes
  9. 15 hours ago

    The most important decisions collectively made today (or lack thereof) will not appear in the main roadmap, but will be separate — they will have to do with enforcement mechanisms (or lack thereof).

    Still waiting for the Merkel/UN press conference to start to see if any progress has been made on at this conference. Both Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin have now left Berlin.…
    2 retweets 15 likes
  10. 16 hours ago

    “German Def Min said may be deployed to —but stressed that will happen only if a permanent ceasefire is agreed to.” The remarkable comment above shows genuine German commitment to peace in . , & have a strong incentive to stymie

    E.U. leaders call for more assertive European role monitoring Libya truce, if there is one. Draft communique only calls for “parties concerned to redouble their…
    2 replies 26 retweets 60 likes
  11. 16 hours ago

    “The insouciance of the West created a vacuum forcefully filled.” This op-ed explains well why ’s military involvement in over last 5 yrs (altho real) isn’t important in the grand scheme of things. Paris’ *big* contribution has been in the diplomatic realm

    Egged on by a France seeking to appease its weapons customers, the west for months ignored the conflict in Libya. Then Turkey and Russia intervened, and the bills for their disastrous insouciance came due. My piece
    2 replies 11 retweets 17 likes
  12. Retweeted
    18 hours ago

    , for ceasefire to exist, monitoring the DMZ is necessary..

    Presence of any official foreign troops on soil to monitor the ceasefire & demilitarized buffer zone would be a catastrophe from the point of view of & other states that back the .…
    1 retweet 2 likes
  13. 18 hours ago

    This big chunk (~350k barrels a day) in the west comes on top of the big chunk (up to ~560k bpd) in the east. The pipeline valve mentioned below is usually controlled by the side of .

    Libya’s biggest oil field began to halt production after protesters shut down a pipeline via ⁦⁩
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    1 reply 12 retweets 13 likes
  14. 19 hours ago

    Unlike last night, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan represents the today.

    6 replies 10 retweets 16 likes
  15. Retweeted
    19 hours ago

    takes common sense position no military solution to conflict leading into conference.

    I arrived in this afternoon to participate in tomorrow’s conference on . The position is clear - no military solution can solve the conflict, and any solution must include a Libyan-led political process with inclusive dialogue.
    1 reply 3 retweets 6 likes
  16. Retweeted
    24 hours ago

    This picture from Palermo summit in November 2018 still sums it up. Haftar embracing the Italian PM, Serraj trying to join the hugging one hand is on Conte’s back but the other probably not on Haftar’s who doesn’t look at him.

    5 replies 7 retweets 27 likes
  17. Retweeted
    22 hours ago
    Replying to and

    Italy is one of the biggest buyers (~15% of Libyan production, or ~12% of Italy’s total imports). It is also one of the biggest sellers to Libya of finished products (gasoline and diesel), which are sorely needed after almost all refineries closed.

    1 reply 6 retweets 16 likes
  18. 22 hours ago

    In this brief on foreign , I say sees in a seductive opportunity in way of: • commerce (grain, arms, construction); • geostrategic assets (bases, passageway into Africa); • & ideological platform to undermine NATO, divide EU & discredit West.

    Q&A: Issues at stake in Libya peace conference in Berlin
    3 replies 17 retweets 45 likes
  19. 22 hours ago

    In this “ explainer” for a major Dutch outlet, I say: • flow into the isn’t a major fear in European capitals right now; • isn’t either, foreign states think they can just mow the lawn from time to time; • is much less important than the

    Waarom is Libië het toneel van een internationaal conflict?:
    1 reply 11 retweets 22 likes
  20. 23 hours ago

    Today, Berlin will see the encounter of 2 worldviews: ’s vs ’s. Each 1 says the other isn’t worthy of even being spoken to. Yet, the , & view some kind of patchwork of the 2 as probably “good enough” for . Question is: In which proportion?

    W/Secretary of State of the discussed -US relations and the Conference on . In close contact w/all key actors for a lasting ceasefire and return to the political process in Libya.
    3 replies 9 retweets 21 likes
  21. Retweeted
    Jan 18

    Presence of any official foreign troops on soil to monitor the ceasefire & demilitarized buffer zone would be a catastrophe from the point of view of & other states that back the . To protect their preferences, those actors must prevent this type of proposal.

    Replying to @Eljarh
    Germany is ready to send the army to to support such a mission. .
    5 replies 31 retweets 67 likes
  22. 24 hours ago

    When Hakan (Fidan) met Ali (Mamlouk)… On Jan 13, during the summit in , ’s Intelligence head & his counterpart sat down. This event is proof that & are indeed linked in the ’ mind, regardless of what some commentators will say

    From Russia with love: Turkish and Syrian spymasters meet in Moscow via
    2 replies 4 retweets 18 likes
  23. Retweeted
    24 hours ago

    : Turkish President & Turkish delegation en route to . Two Turkish government jets, President’s Boeing 747-8ZV TRK1 out of Istanbul Atatürk & Airbus ACJ319 133X TRK2 out of Ankara Esenboğa withFM/DM/HeadofIntel, are flying to Berlin for talks

    1 reply 8 retweets 13 likes
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  24. Jan 18

    ’s point of view re addressed here ahead of . ’s attitude tomorrow is not entirely predictable unlike fellow African state .

    Mon entretien avec le ministre des Affaires étrangères du Congo-Brazzaville Jean-Claude Gakosso sur la situation libyenne. "Nous voulons miser sur la réconciliation fraternelle entre les Libyens, les amener à mettre un peu d’eau dans leur vin, à faire taire un peu les…
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    2 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
  25. Retweeted
    Jan 18

    The participation of the Navy in the carrier group that will escort the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle on a part of its mission in the EasternMediterranean is seen as yet another indication of ’ desire to strengthen its ties with @ekathimerini

    4 replies 38 retweets 62 likes
  26. Jan 18

    invites to its Summit of January 19th at the eleventh hour. , feeling insulted (for good reason), declines.

    7 replies 24 retweets 53 likes
  27. Jan 18

    Blockading the terminals on the eve of the peace talks is tantamount to blackmailing. has been rather indifferent to the civil war—but it *dislikes* oil blockades. Therefore the pro- camp’s bet is fraught w/ risk But it may work, I told

    Libye : les exportations du pétrole bloquées à la veille d’un sommet crucial
    3 replies 18 retweets 41 likes
  28. Jan 18

    ’s presence in reflects a hands-on attitude. After the debacle, foreign support for the side of the conflict cannot be outsourced or assigned to other powers in an easy or dependable fashion.

    This Tweet is unavailable.
    3 retweets 5 likes
  29. Jan 18

    has arrived. will follow suit shortly.

    summit: Sarraj arrives to Germany. Libyan Air Airbus320 flew from Tripoli Mitiga to Berlin Tegel.
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    2 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
  30. Jan 18

    Soon, existence—in the area—of several 1000s Syrian mercs will likely become a hard fact, warranting no social-media videos or speculation. What will the anti-GNA side do? Pulverize the GNA-controlled airports? Using what? Turkey has bolstered protection of airports.

    1:15
    Tens of Syrian fighters can be seen on an “Al-Afriqiyah” plane on route to Libya to join the UN backed government militias. has not managed to confirm the date of the video.
    10 replies 23 retweets 25 likes
  31. Jan 18

    “Tomorrow, may end up accepting the continuation of an utterly avoidable civil war—destructive, ugly, just 400 km away from the —knowing that the main actors in that war will have nothing to do w/ Northern Africa or Europe. Countries like Turkey, the Emirates & Russia”

    5:43
    Met expert Jalel Harchaoui () van instituut Clingendael spreken we over de situatie in Libië en de aankomende top. "Europa moet niet maar één dag aandacht hebben voor Libië, maar zorgen voor…
    7 replies 19 retweets 37 likes
  32. Jan 18

    “ cannot control a city of 3mm w/ just 1,000 fighters. He knows that; so do the foreign states that prop him up.” ~ FM I doubt that, Luigi. A few key men—Libyan & foreign alike—believe in the appropriateness of force. They think victory is around the corner

    Italian Foreign Minister Di Maio on the on Libya“ there are not only two sides to the conflict, but many. These include tribes with origins in Tunisia and Algeria. That's why it is so important to also work with these countries“.
    3 replies 19 retweets 34 likes
  33. Jan 18

    Thread on cargo flights into &—likely— 👇🏻

    My story on flights from UAE Air Bases to Libya continues: Leaving Al Dhafra Air Base on 12 Jan, gigantic Maximus An-124 UR-ZYD *may* have flown from UAE-military operated AB () to at least 4…
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    12 retweets 4 likes
  34. Jan 18

    “The is a mix of professionally trained young soldiers; remnants of the military; local & tribal militias; and brigades” While foreign dimension steals the show on the eve of , this brief explainer from sketches the actual groups of

    Berlin hosts push to broker peace in Libya
    2 replies 12 retweets 15 likes
  35. Retweeted
    Jan 18

    NYT on Syrian mercenaries sent by Turkey and media access to the Tripoli frontlines:

    4 replies 20 retweets 31 likes
  36. Jan 18

    The jury’s still out on whether this umpteenth attempt on the part of factions to shut down crude exports & challenge the flow of $$$ proceeds into the in , will succeed or fail. Secrtry of State will likely get to decide by tomorrow.

    Haftar(LNA) just played his last card by shutting down the oil and trying to sell it independently( he tried months ago but failed).
    4 replies 7 retweets 12 likes
  37. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    FRANCE asks to join EAST MED GAS FORUM: FRANCE sends important signal just prior to start of BERLIN LIBYA CONFERENCE. | The request was anticipated but the timing is significant.

    7 replies 74 retweets 106 likes
  38. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    “Few vital interests of the US continue to be at stake in the Middle East.” writes who has devoted his life to it. Whatever you think of it, this view is increasingly prevalent and Europeans, who are much more exposed to ME, should take note.

    5 replies 35 retweets 56 likes
  39. Jan 17

    Throughout 2019, Western states, led by &—to some extent—the had shaped a diplomatic posture twrd that was lopsided. It pretended it was neutral while facilitating the offensive on . Then, & burst that bubble of complacency, I tell .

    2 replies 7 retweets 23 likes
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  40. Jan 17

    Élysée: “Turkeys adds risks. doesnt mind a ceasefire but it must reflect current territorial reality. Haftar is a political actor w/ a role to play; whereas—behind Serraj—militias rule. No one can say a united, legal entity in Tripoli is besieged by rebels. LNA won’t retreat”

    Libye: Angela Merkel prend les choses en main via
    2 replies 11 retweets 26 likes
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