Jalel Harchaoui

@JMJalel_H

Research fellow at dedicated to covering security, politics & justice.

clingendael.org/person/jalel-h…
Joined April 2014
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  1. Retweeted
    28 Dec 2019

    In Oct-Nov, all the pro- capitals became filled w/ hubris & optimism about an imminent entry into downtown . But prior to that, the experienced several weeks of uncertainty. Long read from the team (featuring my thoughts).

    2 replies 23 retweets 38 likes
  2. 27 minutes ago

    Presence of any official foreign troops on soil to monitor the ceasefire & demilitarized buffer zone would be a catastrophe from the point of view of & other states that back the . To protect their preferences, those actors must prevent this type of proposal.

    Replying to @Eljarh
    Germany is ready to send the army to to support such a mission. .
    1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
  3. 4 hours ago

    ’s point of view re addressed here ahead of . ’s attitude tomorrow is not entirely predictable unlike fellow African state .

    Mon entretien avec le ministre des Affaires étrangères du Congo-Brazzaville Jean-Claude Gakosso sur la situation libyenne. "Nous voulons miser sur la réconciliation fraternelle entre les Libyens, les amener à mettre un peu d’eau dans leur vin, à faire taire un peu les…
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    2 replies 1 like
  4. Retweeted
    7 hours ago

    The participation of the Navy in the carrier group that will escort the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle on a part of its mission in the EasternMediterranean is seen as yet another indication of ’ desire to strengthen its ties with @ekathimerini

    2 replies 16 retweets 24 likes
  5. 14 hours ago

    invites to its Summit of January 19th at the eleventh hour. , feeling insulted (for good reason), declines.

    6 replies 21 retweets 44 likes
  6. 15 hours ago

    Blockading the terminals on the eve of the peace talks is tantamount to blackmailing. has been rather indifferent to the civil war—but it *dislikes* oil blockades. Therefore the pro- camp’s bet is fraught w/ risk But it may work, I told

    Libye : les exportations du pétrole bloquées à la veille d’un sommet crucial
    3 replies 16 retweets 39 likes
  7. 16 hours ago

    ’s presence in reflects a hands-on attitude. After the debacle, foreign support for the side of the conflict cannot be outsourced or assigned to other powers in an easy or dependable fashion.

    This Tweet is unavailable.
    3 retweets 5 likes
  8. 17 hours ago

    has arrived. will follow suit shortly.

    summit: Sarraj arrives to Germany. Libyan Air Airbus320 flew from Tripoli Mitiga to Berlin Tegel.
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    2 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
  9. 17 hours ago

    Soon, existence—in the area—of several 1000s Syrian mercs will likely become a hard fact, warranting no social-media videos or speculation. What will the anti-GNA side do? Pulverize the GNA-controlled airports? Using what? Turkey has bolstered protection of airports.

    1:15
    Tens of Syrian fighters can be seen on an “Al-Afriqiyah” plane on route to Libya to join the UN backed government militias. has not managed to confirm the date of the video.
    10 replies 23 retweets 24 likes
  10. 19 hours ago

    “Tomorrow, may end up accepting the continuation of an utterly avoidable civil war—destructive, ugly, just 400 km away from the —knowing that the main actors in that war will have nothing to do w/ Northern Africa or Europe. Countries like Turkey, the Emirates & Russia”

    5:43
    Met expert Jalel Harchaoui () van instituut Clingendael spreken we over de situatie in Libië en de aankomende top. "Europa moet niet maar één dag aandacht hebben voor Libië, maar zorgen voor…
    6 replies 17 retweets 31 likes
  11. 19 hours ago

    “ cannot control a city of 3mm w/ just 1,000 fighters. He knows that; so do the foreign states that prop him up.” ~ FM I doubt that, Luigi. A few key men—Libyan & foreign alike—believe in the appropriateness of force. They think victory is around the corner

    Italian Foreign Minister Di Maio on the on Libya“ there are not only two sides to the conflict, but many. These include tribes with origins in Tunisia and Algeria. That's why it is so important to also work with these countries“.
    3 replies 19 retweets 33 likes
  12. 20 hours ago

    Thread on cargo flights into &—likely— 👇🏻

    My story on flights from UAE Air Bases to Libya continues: Leaving Al Dhafra Air Base on 12 Jan, gigantic Maximus An-124 UR-ZYD *may* have flown from UAE-military operated AB () to at least 4…
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    12 retweets 4 likes
  13. 20 hours ago

    “The is a mix of professionally trained young soldiers; remnants of the military; local & tribal militias; and brigades” While foreign dimension steals the show on the eve of , this brief explainer from sketches the actual groups of

    Berlin hosts push to broker peace in Libya
    2 replies 12 retweets 15 likes
  14. Retweeted
    22 hours ago

    NYT on Syrian mercenaries sent by Turkey and media access to the Tripoli frontlines:

    4 replies 20 retweets 31 likes
  15. 22 hours ago

    The jury’s still out on whether this umpteenth attempt on the part of factions to shut down crude exports & challenge the flow of $$$ proceeds into the in , will succeed or fail. Secrtry of State will likely get to decide by tomorrow.

    Haftar(LNA) just played his last card by shutting down the oil and trying to sell it independently( he tried months ago but failed).
    4 replies 7 retweets 12 likes
  16. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    FRANCE asks to join EAST MED GAS FORUM: FRANCE sends important signal just prior to start of BERLIN LIBYA CONFERENCE. | The request was anticipated but the timing is significant.

    7 replies 69 retweets 101 likes
  17. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    “Few vital interests of the US continue to be at stake in the Middle East.” writes who has devoted his life to it. Whatever you think of it, this view is increasingly prevalent and Europeans, who are much more exposed to ME, should take note.

    6 replies 35 retweets 53 likes
  18. Jan 17

    Throughout 2019, Western states, led by &—to some extent—the had shaped a diplomatic posture twrd that was lopsided. It pretended it was neutral while facilitating the offensive on . Then, & burst that bubble of complacency, I tell .

    2 replies 7 retweets 23 likes
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  19. Jan 17

    Élysée: “Turkeys adds risks. doesnt mind a ceasefire but it must reflect current territorial reality. Haftar is a political actor w/ a role to play; whereas—behind Serraj—militias rule. No one can say a united, legal entity in Tripoli is besieged by rebels. LNA won’t retreat”

    Libye: Angela Merkel prend les choses en main via
    2 replies 11 retweets 26 likes
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  20. Jan 17

    If ’s R becomes ’s special envoy to *all* countries (instead of just the ), he may allow more genuine negotiations btwn & the . is v close to . Separately, he also has had a dialogue w/ & since 2016…

    СМИ: Кадырова могут назначить полпредом Путина Предполагается, что Кадыров станет полномочным представителем российского лидера в исламских…
    4 replies 14 retweets 15 likes
  21. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    Pompeo’s agenda should be: 1)Tough conversations with all sides (esp UAE and Turkey) to support ceasefire and pause their contributions to war 2) Develop an UNSCR with Russia & P3 enshrining ceasefire 3) Contribute intelligence to monitor ceasefire and sanction violaters

    2 retweets 4 likes
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  22. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    Here we go Berlin conference - Libyan eastern forces says closing oil ports 'huge step' by the people

    5 retweets 7 likes
  23. Jan 17

    Even if chooses to double down on the (it might), will never forget about Jan 13th. After all, the person K Haftar will have handed its 1st diplomatic failure in since it launched its big, usually well-choreographed comeback in the area 7 yrs ago

    quotes a letter Khalifa Haftar sent to in run-up to conference: "I'd like to thank you & express full support for /n initiative to hold talks in Moscow.I reiterate…
    2 replies 10 retweets 44 likes
  24. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    Unlike previous summits on , the situation and participants allow to be (seemingly) successful. But is the outcome of the conf really important? I am skeptical about the long-term translation of any potential agreement on the Libyan soil

    1 reply 4 retweets 10 likes
  25. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    The deplores calls 4 shutting down the oil production, ahead of Berlin Process, warn forces that claim to be guarding oil installations to prevent any shutdown attempts, otherwise it will look 4 other "alternatives" to protect/secure the wealth of the /n people.

    تدين الدعوات لاقفال المنشآت النفطية
    12 retweets 21 likes
  26. Jan 17

    “Marshal Haftar elicits skepticism in . At the beginning, in May 2014, his campaign was perceived rather positively by . “Three months later, when Algerian leaders saw fighter jets bomb airport of , their opinion changed…” In .

    ENTRETIEN | , chercheur , spécialiste de la Libye : « Il y a en Algérie une grande peur de la partition libyenne »
    1 reply 14 retweets 28 likes
  27. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    Reactive policy making has only marginalised Europe in Libya and will continue to do so Greece needs to compartmentalise, as such statements only lessen Europe's credibility as a broker and push those with influence on the ground towards bilateralism rather than multilateralism

    Θέλω να είμαι σαφής: Η Ελλάδα δεν πρόκειται ποτέ να δεχθεί πολιτική λύση για τη Λιβύη που να μην προϋποθέτει την ακύρωση του παράνομου “μνημονίου” Τουρκίας - Λιβύης. Θα βάλουμε βέτο πριν φτάσει η υπόθεση στο Συμβούλιο Κορυφής. Θα βάλουμε βέτο στο επίπεδο των Υπουργώ…
    3 replies 10 retweets 21 likes
  28. Jan 17

    Everything You Always Wanted to Know About ’ Posture vis-à-vis the Mess circa 2020 (…But Were Afraid to Ask). “ dreads an irreversible partition of its neighbor to the east.” My in-depth interview w/ in .

    « Il y a en Algérie une grande peur de la partition libyenne »
    1 reply 5 retweets 12 likes
  29. Jan 17

    Everything You Always Wanted to Know About ’ Posture vis-à-vis the Mess circa 2020 (…But Were Afraid to Ask). “ dreads an irreversible partition of its neighbor to the east.” My in interview w/ in .

    "Si sa marge de manœuvre est étroite, elle n’est pas nulle pour autant. Un réveil de la diplomatie algérienne s’opère. C’est un pays qui a une tradition des affaires étrangères. Ce n’est pas un poids plume"
    13 retweets 24 likes
  30. Jan 17

    At this pace*

    2 retweets 7 likes
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  31. Jan 17

    While , , , have been airing their outrage at ’s Nov 27 accords w/ , ‘s been making steady headway bolstering its mission in area, incl . At this space, ’s combat drones will soon become useless. How to bomb next?

    13 replies 37 retweets 87 likes
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  32. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    Greece will veto any EU deal on Libya at Berlin this weekend unless Libya-Turkey maritime deal scrapped.

    12 replies 43 retweets 61 likes
  33. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    Two powers intent to sideline EU-Europe and become key powers in post-American MENA region — joint interests between Russia and Turkey bigger than (serious) disagreements over Syria and Libya. Another new great game.

    Scenario below (- entente on West ) was considered fancy when first mentioned 1 month ago (see WSJ below), Now—ahead of Berlin—it is recognized as a distinct possibility.…
    1 reply 11 retweets 14 likes
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  34. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    Algeria’s🇩🇿 protest movement is slowly approaching the 1-year mark. While Tebboune continues his consultation with national figures and sends mixed signals, the Hirak keeps demanding fundamental change and is still torn by the question wether or not to engage in dialogue.

    ⭕ Une nouvelle mise à jour de notre application TSA – Algérie est disponible. Pour la télécharger : -------------------------------------…
    11 retweets 20 likes
  35. Jan 17

    Scenario below (- entente on West ) was considered fancy when first mentioned 1 month ago (see WSJ below), Now—ahead of Berlin—it is recognized as a distinct possibility. Important to discuss the rationale, calculus & motivations (hint: not about ideology).

    ’s ostentatious announcements surrounding the renewal of his involvement in war are a way to prepare the Jan 8 meeting w/ .…
    1 reply 7 retweets 24 likes
  36. Jan 16

    He did not fly secretly. The visit was all over the news on a real-time basis for the whole world to see.

    Libya's Haftar secretly flies to Greece ahead of Berlin summit
    2 replies 2 retweets 24 likes
  37. Jan 16

    Risks of an shutdown become more manifest ahead of the Conf. The pro- side’s idea is to remind the world that ’s sending mercs into front & paying them using 's public $$ Problem is: really hates shutdowns

    2 replies 9 retweets 18 likes
  38. Jan 16

    stops by after meeting FM.

    ΑΠΟΚΛΕΙΣΤΙΚΟ: Στην Αθήνα ο στρατάρχης Χάφταρ - Θα συναντηθεί και με τον Κυριάκο Μητσοτάκη
    2 replies 6 retweets 21 likes
  39. Retweeted
    Jan 16

    Turkey to begin gas exploration in the Mediterranean Sea 'as soon as possible'

    8 retweets 7 likes
  40. Retweeted
    Jan 16

    “Erdogan says Turkey starting troop deployment to Libya “| Article [AMP] | Reuters

    7 retweets 11 likes
  41. Retweeted
    Jan 16

    The Europeans are hoping will be the opportunity they need to take a leading role on again. It seems they are now keen on sending a mission to to monitor ceasefire & implementation of any peace agreement. Also, a mechanism to enforce/monitor arms embargo.

    4 replies 11 retweets 29 likes