Emadeddin Badi

@emad_badi

Policy Leader Fellow | Non-Resident Scholar | alumni | Researcher focusing on & beyond

Florence, Tuscany
mei.edu/experts/emaded…
Joined December 2015
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    17 Dec 2019

    A frozen & an incoherent hamper 's Berlin process on . Yet, -backers' maneuvering also ripens the landscape for cooperation between an assertive & a machiavellian . My latest 's

    2 replies 62 retweets 111 likes
  2. Retweeted
    1 hour ago

    NYT on Syrian mercenaries sent by Turkey and media access to the Tripoli frontlines:

    4 replies 10 retweets 14 likes
  3. 2 hours ago

    Scapegoating others for the rise of Haftar negates the own man's agency. Haftar makes some of his own decisions & isn't a victim that rose as a symptom of Libya's post-2011 failures (he is responsible for many of them). There's some 40 years of history pre-2011 showing this.

    There is a lazy (blame it all on ) tendency among some of 's experts/commentators. Beware of those. Haftar is the result of the failure of NATO's intervention in 2011 to overthrow Qaddafi & failure of 's transitional leaders to establish a new regime.
    4 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
  4. 12 hours ago

    "'s spox Ahmed Mismari said that the Libyan people are the ones who closed the oil ports & fields, & prevented oil exports" People can't voice a political opinion without risking their life, but they somehow can casually halt oil exports overnight.

    4 replies 16 retweets 40 likes
  5. Retweeted
    12 hours ago

    المسماري في مؤتمر صحفي، تعليقا على مطالب إغلاق المؤاني :«هذا عمل مدني نحن في القيادة العامة قلنا له سمعا وطاعة من خلال العمل علي الأرض لتنفيذ أوامر الشعب الليبي». ضمنيا دعمهم لعملية الإغلاق، وحتى مساء اليوم تتواصل العمليات ولم تتوقف بعد، ومن المتوقع توقفها خلال الساعات المقبلة.

    | | المسماري: إغلاق المنشآت والموانئ النفطية «عمل شعبي»
    4 replies 5 retweets 25 likes
  6. Retweeted
    16 hours ago

    This week on the podcast I was joined by MEI scholars , , and to discuss the outlook for the Middle East in 2020, touching on Iran, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Iraq and Algeria.

    3 retweets 2 likes
  7. 17 hours ago

    Some wild quotes in this interview w/ Italy's FM Di Maio. The one that stands out most to me is this one: "Europe & Italy lost ground in Libya for one simple reason: We were not willing to supply weapons to the belligerents" That's completely wrong.

    5 replies 14 retweets 44 likes
  8. 17 hours ago

    In addition, the theory that a blockade could be the organic symptom of some economic tribal/social grievances - that momentarily arose 3 days ahead of Berlin's conference - is pretty far-fetched (at best). It's both LAAF-driven & would be LAAF-enabled if it materialises.

    1 reply 7 retweets 21 likes
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  9. 17 hours ago

    My 2 cents on the oil closure: weaponizing the control over the oil infrastructure by blockading it isn't a winner's strategy. It also contradicts the claims that Haftar is "confident" going into Berlin. Anything that involves politics isn't something he is comfortable with.

    1 reply 10 retweets 28 likes
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  10. 17 hours ago

    Reasons Greece's recent posturing is comical: - there isn't a deal that could come out of Berlin that everyone would accept anyway -Greece can, in practice, do little on Libya & even less on the East Med - Athens has little influence over anything that comes out of Berlin anyway

    Replying to @emad_badi
    Looks like Turkey and Russia ceased the fire, but Europe will erupt the war again. Greece announced that they will veto any political solution if they did not get what they wanted!!!
    6 replies 13 retweets 43 likes
  11. 17 hours ago

    And by significant I mean unprecedented build-up. At this rate, the fact this conference is being expediently held now (& with no clear goal whatsoever) will solely end up further diminishing the credibility of Europe (& particularly Germany) as mediator.

    3 replies 5 retweets 24 likes
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  12. 17 hours ago

    The dissonance between Berlin & developments on the ground in Libya is astonishing. There's been significant amounts of weapons transferred to both sides of the conflict in the last week - something that isn't at all reflective of an intention to play "politics".

    3 replies 16 retweets 38 likes
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  13. 20 hours ago

    "Con l’offensiva lanciata ad aprile ha cercato di evitare un accordo di condivisione del potere. Ora sarebbe difficile presentarsi ai suoi sostenitori con un accordo in cui lui non appare essere l’unico vincitore" Parlo con per .

    A si cerca una via politica per la pace in Featuring
    1 retweet 7 likes
  14. Retweeted
    23 hours ago

    Reactive policy making has only marginalised Europe in Libya and will continue to do so Greece needs to compartmentalise, as such statements only lessen Europe's credibility as a broker and push those with influence on the ground towards bilateralism rather than multilateralism

    Θέλω να είμαι σαφής: Η Ελλάδα δεν πρόκειται ποτέ να δεχθεί πολιτική λύση για τη Λιβύη που να μην προϋποθέτει την ακύρωση του παράνομου “μνημονίου” Τουρκίας - Λιβύης. Θα βάλουμε βέτο πριν φτάσει η υπόθεση στο Συμβούλιο Κορυφής. Θα βάλουμε βέτο στο επίπεδο των Υπουργώ…
    3 replies 10 retweets 20 likes
  15. Jan 17

    A power-sharing agreement where he'd be accommodated was an arrangement refused w/ his offensive in April '19. His attack was a "winner takes all" gamble. It's naive of policymakers to expect any less than "taking all" would be acceptable to him. I speak to .

    Libya krizinin çözümü için gözler Berlin Konferansında 📍Middle East Institute Analisti ile konuştuk: 👇 ▪…
    2 replies 12 retweets 31 likes
  16. Jan 16

    What armistice? The one he didn't commit to so wouldn't be held accountable when him and his allies decide to resume the offensive on Tripoli? ...

    Außenminister nach Gespräch mit General Haftar in Bengasi: General Haftar hat deutlich gemacht: Er will zum Erfolg der Libyen-Konferenz in Berlin einen Beitrag leisten…
    1 reply 5 retweets 23 likes
  17. Jan 16

    " has pledged to abide by the ceasefire, regardless of the fact that he did not sign the ceasefire agreement in earlier this week. This is extremely important" says 's FM. If this isn't textbook appeasement, I don't know what is.

    9 replies 21 retweets 49 likes
  18. Jan 16

    It's an extremely polarized context. Whatever you'll say re "popular sentiment" is infused with your own biases & influenced by other factors. Unless you've spoken to 10,000 people (thru a medium they aren't afraid for their lives voicing their opinion), it's bound to be flawed.

    1 reply 3 retweets 10 likes
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  19. Jan 16

    I am painfully aware of how difficult it is to gauge public opinion about anything in war-torn (I don't even begin to try) - so Diwan's work is v useful. However, I don't get where some get the confidence to make wild claims about "popular sentiment" in right now.

    1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
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  20. Jan 16

    Latest Diwan report poses interesting questions, but statistically speaking, a sample size of 1136 (w/ 300 to 400 people called/interviewed by phone in West, East & South) is not representative - the corollary is nothing can be accurately inferred from its results.

    2 replies 4 retweets 15 likes
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  21. Jan 16

    Opening mixed coffeehouses but channeling the radical tendencies of your regime to close them off in other contexts...

    2 replies 3 retweets 13 likes
  22. Jan 16

    This title should be completely turned around: the moral from 's policy towards is the complete opposite of this. The reason why is intervening this forcefully on the 's side is because it has few allies in the region.

    5 replies 10 likes
  23. Jan 16

    " added that will continue to use all diplomatic & military means to ensure stability to its south, including in "

    2 replies 6 retweets 14 likes
  24. Jan 15

    This quote alone speaks volumes about 's foreign policy towards - but also other countries in Sub-Saharan . The fact that considers the alternative to Gadaffi should have been "another (better) leader" helps elucidate ' approach to Libya today.

    Macron re:: "it’s a country that has never known real unity...we took a path that never seemed right to me which is to say we don’t like this leader [we're going to] overthrow them except we didn’t have a better leader to replace him…
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    14 retweets 36 likes
  25. Jan 15

    The "Berlin Process" was envisioned as one where states involved in would commit to halting foreign interference in & respecting the arms embargo. Sarraj & Haftar being invited reflects a relapse into an all too familiar - & flawed - approach to conflict resolution.

    Serraj and Hafter invited by Germany to 19 January Berlin conference on Libya -
    4 replies 8 retweets 36 likes
  26. Jan 15

    This occurred after 's arrived to for the opening of a military base in the Red Sea Governorate (some sources report is there too). Hard not to see a correlation.

    : Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency says Egyptian police have raided its Cairo office, detaining four employees including one Turkish citizen. Latest sign of growing tensions between and over ?
    1 reply 11 retweets 24 likes
  27. Retweeted
    Jan 15

    JUST IN: will attend Berlin conference on

    2 replies 48 retweets 51 likes
  28. Jan 15

    An Emirati propaganda outlet shamefully distorted both our comments in an attempt to paint Haftar in a good light. Personally, I find it funny that the UAE is so intellectually bankrupt it can't even get real, let alone good commentary from the pro-Haftar mob it funds.

    This article by distorts my comments to (and reproduces this misleading article: )…
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    4 replies 21 retweets 77 likes
  29. Jan 15

    (Which - if true - also highlights Russians didn't behave as mediators . They saw themselves as the actor that could ripen Haftar for a "pre-cooked deal". In essence, Moscow's meeting was a failed attempt to bully Haftar - renown for being stubborn - into signing on).

    6 retweets 21 likes
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  30. Jan 15

    Can totally imagine that being said in a Russian accent

    A senior Turkish official: “Russians got angry at Haftar in Moscow and even went to his hotel [to talk to him]. They told him that he was nothing if they pull their support on the ground [in Libya]. They believe Haftar ridiculed them.”…
    4 replies 7 retweets 30 likes
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  31. Jan 14

    "Is 's threat to today a real, or is it plain talk? It would be an empty threat if wasn't intervening in . In the past few days, has ramped up its military footprint in West Libya" I speak to ~26:45.

    3 replies 9 retweets 28 likes
  32. Jan 14

    It's high time for policymakers to question whether the inclusion of can be reconciled w/ any peaceful resolution of 's conflict. The other question is whether his LAAF can retain some cohesion without a state of war or without him at its helm. Both are a no.

    1 reply 16 retweets 31 likes
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  33. Jan 14

    What worries is that the current "political process" isn't one that is exclusively designed by his foreign backers (or states amenable to him) in order to enable his "military win". It's what also explains his fear ahead of Ghadames 10 months back too.

    NEW — Haftar accepts Merkel’s invitation to join Berlin conference this weekend. Helisted some conditions to Russia for the resumption of talks:…
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    1 reply 16 retweets 46 likes
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  34. Jan 14

    "Let's do what everyone else is doing to maintain relevance"

    🇮🇹 might send troops in 🇱🇾 for a peace monitoring mission under 🇺🇳 umbrella after Conference on January 19th, PM said today answering question in…
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    11 replies 9 retweets 65 likes
  35. Retweeted
    Jan 14

    As Haftar left Moscow, UAE began to funnel military aid to Benghazi: • UAE owned two jets arrived in Benghazi • More armoured vehicles and canons are deploy near Tripoli • : Haftar is gaining time to consolidate supplies for an attack

    7 replies 25 retweets 36 likes
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  36. Jan 14

    " also plans to establish an ops center, headed by a lieutenant general from the Turkish land forces & comprising officials from land, naval & air forces, w/ the aim of coordinating ’s defenses" The general in question is already in .

    4 replies 16 retweets 34 likes
  37. Jan 14

    : " realises that he is guaranteed support by , which is personally & ideologically invested in him & their common project. Now, he is likely weaponising this lull to consolidate supplies for another offensive" I tell .

    3 replies 44 retweets 64 likes
  38. Retweeted
    Jan 14

    ماذا هو سبب توقيف محمد بن زبلح و فهد البكوش لدى الاستخبارات العسكرية في سيدي حسين منذ اكثر من ٢٤ ساعة؟ هل المبادرة التي اقترحوها أزعجت أحدا؟

    75 replies 48 retweets 292 likes
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  39. Jan 14

    Didn't know why - which was flanked by 5 Emirati advisors yesterday- didn't sign the ceasefire agreement? Look no further.

    اتفاق وقف اطلاق النار في ليبيا لم يكن له ان يتم بدون الدور الإيجابي للرمز الدولي 971
    5 replies 16 retweets 50 likes
  40. Retweeted
    Jan 14

    Will there be any consequences to walking away from ? We’ll know soon enough after the next drone strike in Tripoli. must withdraw its equipment and operators for Haftar to feel real pressure. Putin couldn’t deliver that. 1/

    5 replies 16 retweets 31 likes
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  41. Retweeted
    Jan 14

    ERDOGAN SAYS TURKEY IS ABLE TO GIVE GEN. HAFTAR A LESSON reporting

    7 replies 15 retweets 22 likes