Jalel Harchaoui

@JMJalel_H

Research fellow at dedicated to covering security, politics & justice.

clingendael.org/person/jalel-h…
Joined April 2014
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  1. Retweeted
    28 Dec 2019

    In Oct-Nov, all the pro- capitals became filled w/ hubris & optimism about an imminent entry into downtown . But prior to that, the experienced several weeks of uncertainty. Long read from the team (featuring my thoughts).

    2 replies 23 retweets 38 likes
  2. 17 minutes ago

    “Marshal Haftar elicits skepticism in . At the beginning, in May 2014, his campaign was perceived rather positively by . “Three months later, when Algerian leaders saw fighter jets bomb airport of , their opinion changed…” In .

    ENTRETIEN | , chercheur , spécialiste de la Libye : « Il y a en Algérie une grande peur de la partition libyenne »
    3 retweets 10 likes
  3. Retweeted
    3 hours ago

    Reactive policy making has only marginalised Europe in Libya and will continue to do so Greece needs to compartmentalise, as such statements only lessen Europe's credibility as a broker and push those with influence on the ground towards bilateralism rather than multilateralism

    Θέλω να είμαι σαφής: Η Ελλάδα δεν πρόκειται ποτέ να δεχθεί πολιτική λύση για τη Λιβύη που να μην προϋποθέτει την ακύρωση του παράνομου “μνημονίου” Τουρκίας - Λιβύης. Θα βάλουμε βέτο πριν φτάσει η υπόθεση στο Συμβούλιο Κορυφής. Θα βάλουμε βέτο στο επίπεδο των Υπουργώ…
    2 replies 9 retweets 9 likes
  4. 3 hours ago

    Everything You Always Wanted to Know About ’ Posture vis-à-vis the Mess circa 2020 (…But Were Afraid to Ask). “ dreads an irreversible partition of its neighbor to the east.” My in-depth interview w/ in .

    « Il y a en Algérie une grande peur de la partition libyenne »
    1 reply 3 retweets 9 likes
  5. 3 hours ago

    Everything You Always Wanted to Know About ’ Posture vis-à-vis the Mess circa 2020 (…But Were Afraid to Ask). “ dreads an irreversible partition of its neighbor to the east.” My in interview w/ in .

    "Si sa marge de manœuvre est étroite, elle n’est pas nulle pour autant. Un réveil de la diplomatie algérienne s’opère. C’est un pays qui a une tradition des affaires étrangères. Ce n’est pas un poids plume"
    11 retweets 20 likes
  6. 4 hours ago

    At this pace*

    1 retweet 5 likes
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  7. 4 hours ago

    While , , , have been airing their outrage at ’s Nov 27 accords w/ , ‘s been making steady headway bolstering its mission in area, incl . At this space, ’s combat drones will soon become useless. How to bomb next?

    12 replies 20 retweets 52 likes
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  8. Retweeted
    5 hours ago

    Greece will veto any EU deal on Libya at Berlin this weekend unless Libya-Turkey maritime deal scrapped.

    8 replies 32 retweets 38 likes
  9. Retweeted
    6 hours ago

    Two powers intent to sideline EU-Europe and become key powers in post-American MENA region — joint interests between Russia and Turkey bigger than (serious) disagreements over Syria and Libya. Another new great game.

    Scenario below (- entente on West ) was considered fancy when first mentioned 1 month ago (see WSJ below), Now—ahead of Berlin—it is recognized as a distinct possibility.…
    1 reply 6 retweets 11 likes
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  10. Retweeted
    6 hours ago

    Algeria’s🇩🇿 protest movement is slowly approaching the 1-year mark. While Tebboune continues his consultation with national figures and sends mixed signals, the Hirak keeps demanding fundamental change and is still torn by the question wether or not to engage in dialogue.

    ⭕ Une nouvelle mise à jour de notre application TSA – Algérie est disponible. Pour la télécharger : -------------------------------------…
    10 retweets 16 likes
  11. 6 hours ago

    Scenario below (- entente on West ) was considered fancy when first mentioned 1 month ago (see WSJ below), Now—ahead of Berlin—it is recognized as a distinct possibility. Important to discuss the rationale, calculus & motivations (hint: not about ideology).

    ’s ostentatious announcements surrounding the renewal of his involvement in war are a way to prepare the Jan 8 meeting w/ .…
    1 reply 5 retweets 19 likes
  12. 7 hours ago

    He did not fly secretly. The visit was all over the news on a real-time basis for the whole world to see.

    Libya's Haftar secretly flies to Greece ahead of Berlin summit
    2 replies 2 retweets 22 likes
  13. 8 hours ago

    Risks of an shutdown become more manifest ahead of the Conf. The pro- side’s idea is to remind the world that ’s sending mercs into front & paying them using 's public $$ Problem is: really hates shutdowns

    2 replies 7 retweets 18 likes
  14. 21 hours ago

    stops by after meeting FM.

    ΑΠΟΚΛΕΙΣΤΙΚΟ: Στην Αθήνα ο στρατάρχης Χάφταρ - Θα συναντηθεί και με τον Κυριάκο Μητσοτάκη
    2 replies 6 retweets 21 likes
  15. Retweeted
    Jan 16

    Turkey to begin gas exploration in the Mediterranean Sea 'as soon as possible'

    8 retweets 7 likes
  16. Retweeted
    Jan 16

    “Erdogan says Turkey starting troop deployment to Libya “| Article [AMP] | Reuters

    7 retweets 10 likes
  17. Retweeted
    Jan 16

    The Europeans are hoping will be the opportunity they need to take a leading role on again. It seems they are now keen on sending a mission to to monitor ceasefire & implementation of any peace agreement. Also, a mechanism to enforce/monitor arms embargo.

    4 replies 11 retweets 29 likes
  18. 23 hours ago

    Indeed 👇🏻 H is likely to sign on Sunday. Question is feasibility, viability & manipulability of the document that will be signed.

    According to is ready to abide to the ceasefire in despite he did not put his signature in Moscow.
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  19. Retweeted
    Jan 16

    يناقش المضاعفات الإقليمية الناجمة عن الحرب الدائرة بالوكالة في شمال أفريقيا.

    4 retweets 12 likes
  20. Jan 16

    In a area more & more dominated by Realism & half-way arrangement, the would love for the to win the war for in order to defeat political Islam & other currents. That is an ideological agenda—not a pragmatic 1. Who will help ? My interview in .

    Der Libyen-Experte Jalel Harchaoui () erklärt, welche Interessen die Türkei und Russland in verfolgen und welche Aussichten ein Waffenstillstand hat.…
    3 replies 8 retweets 28 likes
  21. Jan 16

    civil war: Prez is slated to attend the Summit this Sunday.

    on Prez ’s / comments made on Wed. In 2020, still utilizes the future tense to describe its commitment to helping ensure other states dont violate the embargo… knowing…
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    1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
  22. Jan 16

    “It’s quite uncertain at this point how things may pan out for the Min of Def, which has determined a big part of ’s agenda in recent yrs.” Must-read for watchers Recall Nov 2013 when Lavrov & Shoygu visited Cairo—a key moment. Was ystrday the end of an era?

    NEW from me : Will /n government shake-up impact ’s policy?
    1 retweet 15 likes
  23. Jan 15

    will see the designation of “five officers assigned w/ the remit of unifying ’s military establishment & coordinate disengagement,” says ’s K . The latter complains about Monday here. He shouldn’t; really couldn’t have treated his faction better.

    رئيس المجلس الأعلى للدولة الليبي: سفارة أبوظبي بموسكو عرقلت توقيع وقف إطلاق النار
    2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
  24. Jan 15

    I recommend observers of Prez ’s foreign policy follow Rym Momtaz () as well as John Irish () and Sophie Pedder (), among several others.

    1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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  25. Jan 15

    on Prez ’s / comments made on Wed. In 2020, still utilizes the future tense to describe its commitment to helping ensure other states dont violate the embargo… knowing that the latter has been violated routinely for half-a-decade. Q.E.D.

    Macron tonight wouldnt confirm he'll be at , or say if it's contingent on ceasefire "we'll assess at right time, my intention is that we have a useful conf" "what we need to be able to have is a ceasefire+conditions for interlibyan dialogue allowing peace" …
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  26. Retweeted
    Jan 15

    Macron’s remarks on tonight after pertinent questions from ’s (Warning: this thread may cause eye rolling if you’ve been following the French role in )

    Macron tonight wouldnt confirm he'll be at , or say if it's contingent on ceasefire "we'll assess at right time, my intention is that we have a useful conf" "what we need to be able to have is a ceasefire+conditions for interlibyan dialogue allowing peace" …
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    8 replies 7 retweets 30 likes
  27. Retweeted
    21 Dec 2019

    Why did PM call ’s ? isn’t just a close friend to . For more perspective on the specific role of in ’s policy, please see my 2017 thread below 👇🏻

    : Why—while in —did the PC’s Ahmed Maiteeq stop by Grozny to visit governor Ramzan Kadyrov?
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    7 replies 15 retweets 23 likes
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  28. Jan 15

    Sad to see what has—finally, after 8 yrs—managed to catch the attention / involvement of world figures & top diplomats in mediation: Russian scare + Turkish outrage … All about ego, pridefulness & optics. will be a high-profile summit for all the wrong reasons.

    Given intrntnl attention; need to get back at the Russians; & the seniority of figures attending (Haftar, Serraj, Pompeo, Merkel, Guterres, Tebboune, & al), a Road Map will likely be signed Sunday.…
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    2 replies 7 retweets 30 likes
  29. Retweeted
    Jan 15

    JUST IN: will attend Berlin conference on

    2 replies 48 retweets 51 likes
  30. Jan 15

    “ sees in the possibility of installing an air base and/or a naval base. “It also sees in it a passageway into the rest of the continent, wherein ’s security involvement has been growing lately,” tells .

    9 retweets 27 likes
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  31. Jan 15

    “The term neo-Ottomanism is not analytically helpful in dissecting ’s foreign policy. It conveys this idea that ’s calculus is grandiose romantic & vague,” I tell . “In reality, ’s style is a cold, ruthless form of Realpolitik, much like ’s.”

    Pourquoi la Russie et la Turquie s’intéressent-elles à la Libye ?
    16 replies 53 retweets 131 likes
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  32. Jan 15

    Given intrntnl attention; need to get back at the Russians; & the seniority of figures attending (Haftar, Serraj, Pompeo, Merkel, Guterres, Tebboune, & al), a Road Map will likely be signed Sunday. Question will be on that piece of paper’s sustainability & quality

    Replying to @AlexanderWerman
    Yes. And I would even say that he is likely to sign indeed. The amount of international attention is just too high.…
    4 replies 12 retweets 17 likes
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  33. Retweeted
    Jan 15

    There’s a major challenge for the conference in Berlin on Sunday. European unity is essential. Violations of the arms embargo must face consequences.

    A set of Western states, led by France, deemed it unthinkable to even allude to UAE’s violations of the UN arms embargo in Libya. Thus began in early Sept a relentless campaign meant to dilute, subver…
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    2 replies 3 retweets 6 likes
  34. Retweeted
    Jan 15

    If you are in Brussels tomorrow catch and I for the launch of our study that offers insights on how to improve migration management in .

    📅 Save the date: next Thursday 2-4 pm we will be in launching a new original study from that offers an in-depth analysis of migration management in three very different municipalities: Ghat, Bani Walid and Zawiya. 🇱🇾…
    5 retweets 17 likes
  35. Jan 15

    representatives have lobbied Republican lawmakers on . Independent exports of crude soon w/ ’s blessing in the works? It will be really tough to implement.

    Lobbyists for Khalifa Hifter’s Libyan National Army met with Republican lawmakers and US energy officials last summer via
    2 replies 7 retweets 18 likes
  36. Retweeted
    Jan 14

    Good analysis on . “ has long portrayed himself as the only entity able to provide security and stability in , yet such stability is based on opportunistic alliances and divide-and-rule tactics rather than on durable coalition building.”

    Must-read on : One year—to the day—after the ostensibly took over ’s vast southwestern province, where do things stand exactly?…
    11 replies 15 retweets 30 likes
  37. Jan 14

    : A total of ~2,000 Syrian citizens “have either travelled from Turkey into W Libya or will arrive in W Libya imminently…”

    2,000 Syrian troops deployed to to support GNA. “Anti-Turkish sentiment is already strong because of Ankara’s intervention and could grow as a result of this, playing in Haftar’s favour” Says ⁦⁩ to ⁦⁦⁩
    6 replies 21 retweets 27 likes
  38. Jan 14

    The narrarive below is fiction and it is important for all Western diplomacies to fully bear it in mind. European capitals must remember they are largely responsible for extirpating a sane, simple & appropriate German initiative of its initial substance.

    To be fair, Berlin conference was doubtful from the day the concept was born. A diplomat recently told me they’ve all been “improvising too much” and the objective keeps changing (and could not say what objective was)- speaks volumes.
    2 replies 7 retweets 19 likes
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  39. Jan 14

    A set of Western states, led by France, deemed it unthinkable to even allude to UAE’s violations of the UN arms embargo in Libya. Thus began in early Sept a relentless campaign meant to dilute, subvert & delay the Berlin initiative. That’s in great part why it is so feeble now.

    1 reply 10 retweets 19 likes
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  40. Jan 14

    Only a pro-LNA diplomat could assert the Berlin summit lacked a clear aim. Goal of A Merkel & G Salamé in August was crystal clear & commonsensical. Idea was to concentrate on curbing the gross arms-embargo violations by on 1 side & by on the other. Plain & simple.

    To be fair, Berlin conference was doubtful from the day the concept was born. A diplomat recently told me they’ve all been “improvising too much” and the objective keeps changing (and could not say what objective was)- speaks volumes.
    3 replies 18 retweets 40 likes
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  41. Jan 14

    Since ’15, visits in were a must for ’s anti-Islamist figures. The latter would never criticize . But post Monday’s discomfiture, pro- voices seem to be sliding into the art of Putinophobia. Is Libya’s anti-Islamist faction sure it can do w/out ?

    2 replies 17 likes