Jalel Harchaoui

@JMJalel_H

Research fellow at dedicated to covering security, politics & justice.

clingendael.org/person/jalel-h…
Joined April 2014
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  1. Retweeted
    28 Dec 2019

    In Oct-Nov, all the pro- capitals became filled w/ hubris & optimism about an imminent entry into downtown . But prior to that, the experienced several weeks of uncertainty. Long read from the team (featuring my thoughts).

    2 replies 23 retweets 39 likes
  2. 16 minutes ago

    : A total of ~2,000 Syrian citizens “have either travelled from Turkey into W Libya or will arrive in W Libya imminently…”

    2,000 Syrian troops deployed to to support GNA. “Anti-Turkish sentiment is already strong because of Ankara’s intervention and could grow as a result of this, playing in Haftar’s favour” Says ⁦⁩ to ⁦⁦⁩
    1 reply 6 retweets 7 likes
  3. 60 minutes ago

    The narrarive below is fiction and it is important for all Western diplomacies to fully bear it in mind. European capitals must remember they are largely responsible for extirpating a sane, simple & appropriate German initiative of its initial substance.

    To be fair, Berlin conference was doubtful from the day the concept was born. A diplomat recently told me they’ve all been “improvising too much” and the objective keeps changing (and could not say what objective was)- speaks volumes.
    2 retweets 4 likes
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  4. 1 hour ago

    A set of Western states, led by France, deemed it unthinkable to even allude to UAE’s violations of the UN arms embargo in Libya. Thus began in early Sept a relentless campaign meant to dilute, subvert & delay the Berlin initiative. That’s in great part why it is so feeble now.

    1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
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  5. 1 hour ago

    Only a pro-LNA diplomat could assert the Berlin summit lacked a clear aim. Goal of A Merkel & G Salamé in August was crystal clear & commonsensical. Idea was to concentrate on curbing the gross arms-embargo violations by on 1 side & by on the other. Plain & simple.

    To be fair, Berlin conference was doubtful from the day the concept was born. A diplomat recently told me they’ve all been “improvising too much” and the objective keeps changing (and could not say what objective was)- speaks volumes.
    1 reply 5 retweets 12 likes
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  6. 1 hour ago

    Since ’15, visits in were a must for ’s anti-Islamist figures. The latter would never criticize . But post Monday’s discomfiture, pro- voices seem to be sliding into the art of Putinophobia. Is Libya’s anti-Islamist faction sure it can do w/out ?

    1 reply 8 likes
  7. Retweeted
    13 hours ago

    While the focus in is on the coast & beyond, the south has oil fields, water resources, expansive borders & a population suffering from lack of services, poverty & conflict. Here's a look at what's happened in the this past year.

    3 replies 14 retweets 29 likes
  8. Retweeted
    10 hours ago

    Erdogan vows to defend Tripoli government after Libya talks fail via

    3 retweets 3 likes
  9. 11 hours ago

    Monday’s debacle doesn’t warrant an overcomplicated interpretation. ’s diplomats did a sloppy job—& spawned a painful disappointment. As a result, the will now likely stage a big comeback into the realm of military violence. Me on in daily

    Staat Libië na het mislukte overleg opnieuw aan de rand van een burgeroorlog?
    1 reply 12 retweets 26 likes
  10. Retweeted
    12 hours ago

    's FM Lavrov says the situation in is not as clear as it is in , adds “If Libya could become 'a second Syria', the Libyan people will benefit from this. Unfortunately, there is no statehood in Libya so far.”

    6 replies 38 retweets 66 likes
  11. Retweeted
    13 hours ago

    With all the cargo flights to shore up 's military supplies and front lines in , appears full scale warfare soon. His major backers of all stripes include: , , , , half half and... fighters still?

    Third day of the ceasefire. At the moment, the same as previous days - largely holding with localised breaches in Ain Zara, Swani, al-Azizia, etc. People are nervous, anxious, concerned about what happens next…
    10 retweets 16 likes
  12. 13 hours ago

    Must-read on : One year—to the day—after the ostensibly took over ’s vast southwestern province, where do things stand exactly? I am immensely pleased to share this 1st policy brief from my colleague .

    4 replies 28 retweets 68 likes
  13. Retweeted
    14 hours ago

    🇮🇹 might send troops in 🇱🇾 for a peace monitoring mission under 🇺🇳 umbrella after Conference on January 19th, PM said today answering question in 🇪🇬 More details [Italian reders] here ➡️

    , , and 4 others
    9 replies 39 retweets 36 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    17 hours ago

    sends a clear message. Military exercises in the 4th Military Region (encompassing Algeria's Libyan border.)

    2:05
    ANP/ Visite du CEMA GM-Chanegriha en 4ème RM . Exercice avec les éléments de la 41ème Brigade Blindée. 2)
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    3 replies 16 retweets 26 likes
  15. 14 hours ago

    “~80 Turkish officers are now in Tripoli; 10 are training cadets at Mitiga; others do train-&-equip activities; ~40 servicemen will operate the Milkar-3A3 V/UHF radio jammer system sent by Turkey for air defense. Moreover, a Koral radar jammer might be dispatched to Tripoli soon”

    Could fragile cease-fire lead to peace in Libya?
    7 replies 64 retweets 85 likes
  16. Retweeted
    23 hours ago

    Looks like stubbornness is being rewarded by somebody...

    Two! Kazakh? Avia Jaynar? heavylifters from🇦🇪UAE special forces airport ('Abu Dhabi northeast') UP-B4701 UP-I7651…
    1 reply 29 retweets 39 likes
  17. Retweeted
    23 hours ago

    Excellent background on Turkey's interest in Libya.

    𝗪𝗵𝘆 has been interfering in ? “Why” is a question political scientists & IR scholars often evade… simply because it is the hardest of all. …
    1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
  18. 24 hours ago

    𝗪𝗵𝘆 has been interfering in ? “Why” is a question political scientists & IR scholars often evade… simply because it is the hardest of all. ’s kindly invited me to break down ’s principal motivations in this primer…

    The Clingendael Institute's unpacks the complex motivations of regional and international actors in the proxy conflict in Libya, in a wide-ranging interview with Diwan:
    5 replies 20 retweets 57 likes
  19. Jan 13

    What? President Putin doesn’t like it too much when someone walks out on him as the whole world watches on?? Who would’ve thunk?? Recall Feb 2017, when Haftar did something quite similar in Cairo. Problem is, On the totem pole of , Sisi is underneath MbZ while Putin isn’t.

    BREAKING: Khalifa leaves without signing the ceasefire deal brokered by , P.S. doesn't usually like when folks rain on his parade
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    6 replies 13 retweets 42 likes
  20. Jan 13

    How does the see ’s attempt to take over the international diplomacy associated w/ ? The President & his Secretary of State are fine with it, I said to the . [ 09’01” ]

    1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes
  21. Jan 13

    “Russia is not France. Russia doesn’t believe Haftar leads an army capable of ever winning the war for Tripoli. Some form of entente btwn Putin & Erdogan could “flip” Wagner. If latter stops helping Haftar, he will have difficulty finding a substitute,” I told 3 wks ago

    Haftar likely to Egypt: Moscow talks on collapse: Haftar‘s Dassault Falcon 900 departed Moscow Sheremetyevo & is now flying S/SE thru Greek airspace. Hafyar is very likely going to Cairo. Amman or Abu…
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    8 replies 30 retweets 66 likes
  22. Jan 13

    “With regard to , has been betting everything on the & its offensive. Things couldn’t go on like this. It was only a matter of time before a change of venue would see slip away from , as far as diplomacy & mediation,” said Patrick Haimzadeh.

    La Russie, nouveau maître du jeu pour le conflit libyen 👉 Ce n’est définitivement plus à Paris, comme l’Élysée l’ambitionnait, que se discute la résolution du conflit. …
    1 reply 8 retweets 16 likes
  23. Retweeted
    Jan 13

    Amcit Mostafa Kassem death in was "needless, tragic, and avoidable," according to U.S. Asst SecState David Schenker

    34 retweets 40 likes
  24. Retweeted
    Jan 13

    « La Libye, peut-être plus encore que d’autres crises, incarne l’échec occidental aux yeux de Moscou » affirmait dans il y a presque un an.

    9 retweets 9 likes
  25. Retweeted
    Jan 13

    . Jan 13th, 2020: number of Italian troops in Libya could grow, Italian press reports: "Ministry of Defence is preparing a new decree on missions considering necessity of bolstering our [Italy's] presence in Libya", Il Messaggero reads.

    1 reply 21 retweets 14 likes
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  26. Jan 13

    This good collection includes an article by Mark N. Katz who wrote one of the best articles on ’s policy (and rationale) back in 2008.

    With Russia and Turkey taking the lead on Libya, I recommend for those curious about Russia-Turkey relations, Russia's role in Libya, and Moscow's broader MENA strategy this recent volume:
    1 retweet 14 likes
  27. Retweeted
    Jan 13

    Berlin Conference now slated for 19 Jan. Is it still a forum for negotiation? Or will it become a vehicle for formalising discussions in Moscow?

    1 reply 14 retweets 23 likes
  28. Jan 13

    went to under pressure from the , who were lobbied by . The field marshal cannot keep asking for more time. He has already been given far more time & resources than initially planned. know they have time to finetune the picture later on

    Whatever Putin wants: Russia emerges as Libya powerbroker after assembling breakthrough talks
    4 replies 32 retweets 41 likes
  29. Jan 13

    : Measures emanating from are complicated & *slow* to implement—even vague & relatively easy to manipulate… Meanwhile, some armed groups on both sides of conflict r already vowing not to comply w/ whatever roadmap comes out. … But still, steals the show.

    8 replies 8 retweets 35 likes
  30. Retweeted
    Jan 10

    Yesterday I spoke to on how the prospects for a ceasefire in are not realistic, and how geopolitical and economic interests (forget , at least in this case) are dictating 's moves

    2 retweets 7 likes
  31. Jan 13

    “Don’t expect tangible peace to break out in real-life . “The impressive ceremony today is not about immediate peace for . “It is merely about shifting international diplomacy associated w/ the conflict away from the ,” I told .

    14 replies 32 retweets 70 likes
  32. Jan 12

    Here are the condemning the interference in only last week. That unsustainable inconsistency was seen as an arbitrage opportunity by . Now it is too late.

    Conflit en Libye. L’UE dénonce « l’ingérence » de la Turquie
    2 replies 4 retweets 14 likes
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  33. Jan 12

    Throughout ’19, all refused to curb the ’ air strikes on . “That blind spot only led to an assertive , which in Dec announced an overt military intervention. The Europeans see Erdoğan’s decision as a disaster. But has a different angle

    2 replies 3 retweets 18 likes
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  34. Jan 12

    “ & aren’t allies. But they’re too shrewd to make the mistake of acting like full-blown enemies. Both powers understand that: • The will exit over the long run; • Yet, the keep leaning on America—& therefore are easy to trample & elbow out”

    Libya ceasefire in doubt as rival forces accuse each other of breaches
    6 replies 22 retweets 56 likes
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  35. Retweeted
    Jan 12

    Many reported last 24hrs that the brokered “ceasefire” by Russia & Turkey has been violated several times by both armed sides in skirmishes across - Ppl its most important to, ’n IDPs, attempted to visit thier homes on frontlines & suffered injuries as a result

    14 retweets 12 likes
  36. Jan 12

    No. That isn’t the goal. In this disjointed environment, is poised to achieve a much greater amount of influence in present-day & vicinity than during ’s time. What we are witnessing goes far beyond a simple, linear return to pre-2011.

    While world is fixated on US&Iran,Russia is busy w/, reaching out to Turkey &Europeans (GER, FR, IT).Enhanced diplomatic activism on top of scty assistance suggests that RUS will try to broker btw Libyan parties.The goal is to regain opportunities lost w/Qaddafi’s ouster.
    2 replies 8 retweets 28 likes
  37. Jan 12

    crisis / Moscow talks: Sarraj in Moscow ? Possible. Turkish Government Airbus ACJ319 133X flew from Istanbul Atatürk to Moscow Vnukovo. Turkish delegation is in the plane. Sarraj might have travelled in the…
    2 retweets 1 like
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  38. Retweeted
    Jan 12

    Libya’s speaker gets a standing ovation at the Egyptian parliament once he declares that they might need the Egyptian army to intervene if Turks send their wimps. 🇪🇬 🇱🇾

    0:53
    رئيس مجلس النواب الليبي .. خلال خطابه بمجلس النواب المصري قبل قليل . قد نضطر لدعوة القوات المسلحة المصرية للتدخل إذا حدث تدخل أجنبي في بلادنا ..
    1 reply 25 retweets 51 likes
  39. Jan 12

    is horrified by ’s role in . But , altho not supportive, does continue working closely w/ . & when it does so, cannot skulk or throw a tantrum. I.e., In , has managed to be & remain above the fray. is a case-in-point👇🏻

    's grand special operation in 2.0 's warring parties, Khalifa already in , expected to arrive tomorrow to clinch - brokered deal.…
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    10 replies 40 retweets 46 likes
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  40. Jan 12

    When I used the epithets “ruthless” & “irreversible” in this comment for three days ago, I risked being a bit overdramatic. But if , & do indeed meet in tomorrow, then it *will* be a big punch in the jugular for diplomacy.

    “The process by which Turkey and Russia are taking the diplomatic space is ruthless and largely irreversible. Italy is improvising alone and it is failing miserably” said ⁦⁩…
    1 reply 20 retweets 41 likes
  41. Retweeted
    Jan 12

    : I received a phone call from President during which we discussed enhancing cooperation as well as important regional and international developments. We have a shared interest in strengthening security and stability in the region.

    1 reply 5 retweets 12 likes
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