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Will be presenting in London on the rapidly unfolding events in
#Libya and what they mean for the future of the conflict. If you're around, do attend. Free entry. Date: 13 January Time: 18:00 Further details in the link. Hosted by TURKEN UK.https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/are-turkey-and-russia-the-new-power-brokers-in-libya-tickets-87971989589… -
After assassination of
#QassemSoleimani, what are#Iran's options? My interview with Sky News#Iraqhttps://twitter.com/SALHACHIMI/status/1213111879993888769…2:16 -
"Even
#Iran is surprised by assassination of#QassemSoleimani. They did not believe Trump would go to such lengths in response to#USEmbassy stunt. In terms of repercussions, Iran's options are very limited and I do not think we are headed for war" Spoke to Sky Newspic.twitter.com/jJTgoKWSyB -
Tehran is baffled as to why Trump went to such extreme lengths. They do not believe their US embassy stunt warranted such a response. They are now in an awkward position where they 'need to retaliate' to save face but cannot predict what Trump will do in response.
#QassemSoleimaniShow this thread -
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Will be on Sky News at 13.30GMT today discussing the implications of the US assassination of
#QassemSoleimani -
Decision to assassinate
#QassemSoleimani appears rushed, a knee-jerk reaction than part of a calculated policy of how to counter the overwhelming Iranian influence on Iraq...We may well find that leaderless militias are far more dangerous than ones led by an astute general...Show this thread -
#Iran will smell fear in US position. Militias who are already emboldened by US embassy storming+'success' in Syria+incapability of US to 'rein them in', will seek revenge. And given the one man who could control them is now dead, US have no one to negotiate with to stop them...Show this thread -
Unlike US or Gulf who throw money to win allies,
#QassemSoleimani inspired his associates ideologically. Arabs such as Hassan Nasrallah in#Lebanon+Hadi al-Amiri in#Iraq demonstrated countless times that they were prepared to sacrifice their own standing for sake of Tehran.Show this thread -
US had many chances to assassinate
#QassemSoleimani but never did for fear of escalating war. The fact they finally did it after govt in#Iraq showed its pro-#Iran colours by allowing storming of embassy suggests US is far more worried than assured about what it is doing in Iraq.Show this thread -
For those still wondering why
#Turkey is planning to send troops into#Libya and want a brief explanation of the dynamics, here is a general summary I gave in an interview today with@trtworld.https://youtu.be/ZI8B1Uv3N4U -
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#Greece+#Israel+#Cyprus have reason to fear#Turkey. It is no longer a third-tier country. It is no longer in same category as#SaudiArabia or#Egypt. It is now a country that can impose its will on intl community+sit at same negotiating table as Russia+US"#Syria#Libyapic.twitter.com/xVcXPjOohV -
'Let's talk about reality. If
#Turkey does not get involved in#Libya, Serraj loses and intl recognised govt is done for. And when it is done for, the question people are putting about a 'diplomatic solution' or 'negotiations' becomes irrelevant as Haftar will have won by force'pic.twitter.com/jbcivnQJbK -
#SaudiArabia+#UAE appear to be aware of how upset#Pakistan is at having been publicly humiliated and strongarmed into cancelling Khan's participation at#KualaLumpurSummit. This visit is latest in series of initiatives to soothe tensions and deter closer ties with#Turkey+#Qatarhttps://twitter.com/PTVNewsOfficial/status/1212554523941777409… -
Sami Hamdi سامي الهاشمي الحامدي Retweeted
Southerners pull out of Yemen’s Riyadh Agreement - not surprised at all by this.
#Yemenhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN1Z01ZE… -
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Indication of why EU+Gulf are nervous. Infographic should also include: - Establishment of safe zone for refugees -
#Russia rapprochment - Empowerment of Balkan states under pressure from EU - A democratic state with elections despite rest of region returning to authoritarianismhttps://twitter.com/Ozkok_A/status/1212419570872520704… -
'Following vote on sending
#Turkey troops to#Libya,#France,#UAE,#Egypt will likely scramble and seek to open channels with Misrata+Zintan because they are aware that these militias only backed Serraj because they feared#Haftar domination; not because they like GNA'https://twitter.com/SALHACHIMI/status/1212380704228696065…2:19 -
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#Russia will not mind#Turkey sending troops to#Libya because it knows#Erdogan is not trying to help#Serraj retake the country. He is instead trying to protect the intl recognised govt's place at the negotiating table' Explainer of possible scenarios after tomorrow's votepic.twitter.com/zBRst5HvGU -
"The significance of
#USEmbassy escalation is the impact it has had on how we are now talking about#Iraq. Where we were just yesterday talking about#IraqProtests as new defining dynamic, we are back to talking about wrestling match between US+#Iran. This is what the govt wants"pic.twitter.com/P8ruJdeWG9 -
It shows that
#Iraq govt is increasingly desperate+struggling to contain protests. Today was an attempt to 'unite' Iraqis behind the 'coloniser' and 'oppressor'. It was an attempt to 'remind Iraqis who the real enemy is'. Now we watch and see if protestors buy into this.Show this thread -
On
#Iraq, it is worth noting that Green Zone (where embassy is located) is heavily controlled. No one can enter it without permission of the govt+it is not an easy place to infiltrate. It is impossible therefore to imagine that today's events happened without govt permitting it.Show this thread -
You can read more on the topic here:https://www.intlinterest.com/2019/12/30/eu-finally-moves-on-libya-but-without-much-leverage/…
Show this thread -
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#Turkey has caused everyone to act in#Libya by threatening to send troops and become a power broker. It has spurred everyone to action not because everyone suddenly wants to solve the conflict; but because everyone wants to make sure that Turkey does not become the major power"pic.twitter.com/2fMoXFtMofShow this thread -
Is anyone else noticing that we are no longer talking about
#Iraq protests 'rattling the government' but have gone back to talking about US-Iran wrestling over Iraq? I am no conspiracy theorist but the US attacks were a godsend for the government in Baghdad. -
#SaudiArabia/#UAE are being increasingly accused of plotting an agreement between#Houthis+STC that will render#Yemen govt impotent, and that will subsequently pave the way for a North/South split. Many believe Riyadh is going to great lengths to prevent govt from returning. -
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Sami Hamdi سامي الهاشمي الحامدي Retweeted
US officials in Syria/Iraq with their few troops & powerful weapons should take a moment while in the area to visit the string of ancient Roman fort ruins along the whole line from the Black to the Red Sea, which speak clearly of the fate of powerful foreign armies in this area.https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1211697895952531456…
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After meeting with Haftar and Macron,
#Egypt calls for an urgent Arab League summit tomorrow to discuss#Libya... Worth remembering that Egypt+#UAE+#SaudiArabia have been lobbying for some time for Arab League to withdraw recognition of the GNA as Libya's legitimate govt... -
#Russia may resist attempts by the EU to broker mediation and seek instead to continue negotiating with#Turkey. Here is why:https://twitter.com/SALHACHIMI/status/1210248773471014912…2:19 -
'It will be awkward when
#Germany+#France+#Italy meet Serraj in#Libya. They will want him to withdraw request for#Turkey support. However with his back to the wall+having been abandoned by the EU at such a crucial time, Serraj unlikely to be agreeable' https://www.intlinterest.com/2019/12/30/eu-finally-moves-on-libya-but-without-much-leverage/ …pic.twitter.com/zFJMHZDH1r -
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'From
#Somalia+#Eritrea, Sisi who controls Suez+Alexandria, to#Libya's Benghazi+Tripoli,#UAE wants to establish itself as a major maritime power. If Haftar seizes#Tripoli, Libya would fall under UAE orbit, completing chokehold on#Turkey in the Med'https://www.intlinterest.com/2019/12/17/for-turkey-libya-is-as-important-as-syria/… -
#Russia hopes to squeeze#Turkey on a number of issues before it agrees on mediation in#Libya. This article lays out the positions of both parties and possible leverage they have (and may use) against one another.#Idlib#NATO#Incirlik#Syriahttps://www.intlinterest.com/2019/12/27/how-turkey-and-russia-will-negotiate-libya/…