Michael Tanchum

@michaeltanchum

Senior Fellow |Politics/Energy/Security - E. Med to the Gulf |Türkiye ایران الشرق الأوسط भारत |BL et al |PhD |تصوف

Joined August 2015
1,503 Photos and videos Photos and videos

You may also like

·

Tweets

You blocked

Are you sure you want to view these Tweets? Viewing Tweets won't unblock

  1. Pinned Tweet
    Oct 3

    E. MED: There is a better way! My Mediterranean Energy Hub proposal. A win-win solution for all the peoples of the Eastern Med. English Español Türkçe

    8 replies 39 retweets 67 likes
  2. 22 minutes ago

    The Economic Reason Tunisia Cannot Afford to Align with Turkey in Libya: TUNISIA'S TOP EXPORT MARKETS: 🇫🇷France 1st $5 bil 31% 🇮🇹Italy 2nd $2.6 bil 16% . . . 🇹🇷Turkey 14th $2.2 mil 1.4% (based on 2017 figures)

    21 retweets 23 likes
  3. Retweeted
    14 hours ago

    Official Facebook page of Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed: “...Tunisia will never accept being a member of any alliance or allow its landq to be used except under Tunisian sovereignty alone....all other statements & interpretations represent misunderstanding and misjudgment...”

    33 retweets 29 likes
  4. 40 minutes ago

    GNA officially requests support from Turkey. In combination with boots on the ground, air power will be the decisive factor.

    Libya Requests Turkish Ground, Aerial Military Support: Official
    4 likes
  5. 47 minutes ago

    TURKEY-TUNISIA in Libya: Tunisia's President's denies aligning with Turkey, but Tunisia could be drawn in by degrees (i.e. salami tactics). One indicator to watch is port access granted to Turkish naval and supply vessels

    2 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
  6. 1 hour ago

    PERSIAN GULF: Japan launches its own maritime commerce protection operation 'independent' of US-led and European-led operations Japan to send warship, aircraft to Middle East to protect vessels

    4 retweets 1 like
  7. 2 hours ago

    Earthquake Near Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Reactor, 4.9 magnitude, waiting news of damage reports

    A moderate earthquake hit near where has its nuclear plant. Major Iranian news websites still are not talking about the quake. No reports of damage yet.
    1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
  8. 11 hours ago

    Iraq's President Barham Salih shows political courage in the face of pressure from the pro-Iran Bina coalition. Good article by

    1 reply 7 retweets 9 likes
  9. Retweeted
    12 hours ago

    This is the best response that , a renowned human rights activist of Palestinian origin, can give to ’s , who instrumentalised the cause of Palestinians. NIAC resorts to activism on anything, but human rights violations in Iran.

    As a Palestinian, I stand in solidarity with my Iranian sisters and brothers who are protesting for freedom and dignity and an end to the tyranny of the Iranian regime. Please don't again try to hijack our noble cause for your own shady politics.
    Show this thread
    1 reply 8 retweets 29 likes
  10. 13 hours ago

    Turkey poised to send troops to Libya, ratcheting up tensions in E. Mediterranean by with comments from me and

    Turkey poised to send troops to Libya, ratcheting up tensions in E. Mediterranean
    1 reply 10 retweets 17 likes
  11. 15 hours ago

    TURKEY-RUSSIA in Libya cannot be understood without assessing the nature of the strategic partnerships between EGYPT-RUSSIA and UAE-RUSSIA. Russia's strategic calculus is region-wide with many layers of complexity. Still interesting views v/

    My first article with & : Does Russia's policy in Libya complicate Turkey's peacebuilding project?…
    2 replies 3 retweets 16 likes
  12. Retweeted
    Dec 26

    Hot January 2020 for LY-E. Med Crisis (Updated): ▪️ 2 Jan E. Med. Pipeline Signing ▪️ 4-5 Jan FR-EG-GR-CY SUMMIT ▪️ 7 Jan GR PM Mitsotakis meets POTUS ▪️ 7+ Jan TR parliament OKs troops to LY ▪️ 8 Jan TR Pres Erdoğan meets RU Pres Putin ▪️ ? Jan Haftar visits Rome

    President Erdogan: As soon as Parliament reopens (January 7th) our first order of business is to present a Turkish troop deployment bill for Libya.
    Show this thread
    1 reply 10 retweets 13 likes
  13. 15 hours ago

    US Prosecution of Turkey's Halkbank move forward. . . probably the first of several US actions against Turkey in 2020 that POTUS cannot stop Turkey's Halkbank fails to halt U.S. prosecution for aiding Iran

    6 retweets 4 likes
  14. 15 hours ago

    What the IRAN-CHINA-RUSSIA drill really means. . . "The Middle East‘s Year of the Dragonbear: The 2020 emergence of a Sino-Russian strategic architecture bridging Iran and its Arab Gulf Rivals" My latest report via (cc )

    Iran, Russia and China team up for military drills as America boosts troops in Saudi Arabia
    1 reply 4 retweets 6 likes
  15. Retweeted
    18 hours ago

    “As US policy in Syria appeared amateurishly erratic...”

    CHINA and RUSSIA in MIDDLE EAST "The Middle East‘s Year of the Dragonbear: The 2020 emergence of a Sino-Russian strategic architecture bridging Iran and its Arab Gulf Rivals"…
    Show this thread
    3 replies 2 retweets
  16. 23 hours ago

    LIBYA: With the race to put boots on the ground, air power will be the decisive factor in the outcome. Turkey's plans for GNA air defenses remains unclear

    Two Q on Turkish Expeditionary Force (TLEF) which will be mobilizde possibly 2nd week of jan'20; 1) How TLEF (Army and its jihadist proxies) would be protected (A2AD) against air strikes of ?…
    7 replies 9 retweets 16 likes
  17. 23 hours ago

    Erdoğan's Message for Putin when he arrives in arrives in Turkey on January 8, 2020: We are sending troops to Libya

    Turkey sets date (January 8th) for the parliamentary approval of overseas military deployment to Libya, coinciding with Putin’s visit to inaugurate the Turkstream pipeline: Peskov immediately warns against the involvement.
    8 retweets 5 likes
  18. Retweeted
    Dec 26

    crisis: Kommersant reports that LNA spokesperson accused Turkey of transporting Al-Nusra & IS members through Djerba airport.

    Армия Хафтара обвинила Турцию в переброске боевиков ИГ в Ливию через Тунис
    3 replies 23 retweets 15 likes
  19. Dec 26

    ICYMI 2020 Mega-Trend: "As U.S. increasingly relinquishes its role as primary security guarantor in the Middle East, China & Russia are pursuing a unique opportunity to reorient both Iran & its regional rivals into an emerging Sino-Russian Eurasian architecture." Report below

    CHINA and RUSSIA in MIDDLE EAST "The Middle East‘s Year of the Dragonbear: The 2020 emergence of a Sino-Russian strategic architecture bridging Iran and its Arab Gulf Rivals"…
    Show this thread
    3 retweets 7 likes
  20. Dec 25

    TURKEY-LIBYA: Does Turkey plan a 2-Front War with Haftar? | Erdoğan in Tunisia 4 surprise talks w president | 7 Jan 2020 Turkish Parliament to approve combat troops to Libya | Turkish troops also deployed to Tunisia's border w Haftar to 'protect' TUN?

    President Erdoğan arrives in Tunisia in unannounced visit With him:…
    7 replies 19 retweets 16 likes
  21. Dec 25

    Erdoğan's surprise Christmas visit to Tunisia -- While D.C. and EU capitals are shutdown for holiday vacation, Turkey *may* be devising a two-front war against Haftar drawing in Tunisia.

    TURKEY-LIBYA: Does Turkey plan a 2-Front War with Haftar? | Erdoğan in Tunisia 4 surprise talks w president | 7 Jan 2020 Turkish Parliament to approve combat troops to Libya | Turkish troops also deployed to Tunisia's border w Haftar to 'protect' TUN? …
    2 replies 11 retweets 12 likes
  22. Dec 25

    TURKEY-LIBYA: Does Turkey plan a 2-Front War with Haftar? | Erdoğan in Tunisia 4 surprise talks w president | 7 Jan 2020 Turkish Parliament to approve combat troops to Libya | Turkish troops also deployed to Tunisia's border w Haftar to 'protect' TUN?

    2 replies 23 retweets 22 likes
  23. Dec 25

    LIBYA: The Race for Troop-Size AdvantageOpens Flood Gates for Mercenaries w comments from (Note:This piece focuses on LNA and does not discuss reports of fighters from Syria helping the GNA)

    1 reply 4 retweets 2 likes
  24. Dec 25

    Hot January 2020 for LY-E. Med Crisis: ▪️ 2 Jan E. Med. Pipeline Signing ▪️ 4-5 Jan FR-EG-GR-CY SUMMIT ▪️ 7 Jan GR PM Mitsotakis meets POTUS ▪️ 8 Jan TR Pres Erdoğan meets RU Pres Putin ▪️ ? Jan Haftar visits Rome ▪️ ? Jan TR parliament OKs troops to LY

    4 replies 13 retweets 28 likes
  25. Retweeted
    Dec 24

    “Anger over 's stranglehold on Baghdad's political system has helped propel an unprecedented protest movement -- and now Iraqi activists are hitting the Islamic Republic where it hurts, with a goods boycott.”

    3 retweets 2 likes
  26. Dec 24

    Hot January 2020 for Libya-East Med Crisis Consultations: ▪️ 4-5 Jan: FRANCE-CYPRUS-EGYPT SUMMIT ▪️ 7 Jan: Greek PM Mitsotakis meets POTUS ▪️ 8 Jan: TR Pres. Erdoğan meets Russian Pres. Putin ▪️ ? Jan: Haftar visits Rome And there will be more

    5 replies 33 retweets 75 likes
  27. Dec 24

    FRANCE-CYPRUS-EGYPT SUMMIT set for January 4-5, 2020 Greek FM announces Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, France summit -

    7 retweets 13 likes
  28. Dec 24

    Kuwait and Saudi Arabia end Neutral Zone Dispute: Aside from putting more oil in the market (which helps Iran sanctions), it shifts intra-GCC dynamics and affects Turkey's outreach to Kuwait

    BREAKING: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait end 5-year long dispute over the so-called “Neutral Zone” bordering both nations, allowing resumption of oil production (maximum capacity from the zone is ~500,000 b/d) 🇸🇦 🇰🇼 🛢
    1 reply 7 retweets 4 likes
  29. Dec 24

    Italy's Economic Stakes in E Med and Balkans in one excellent graphic by

    1 reply 28 retweets 55 likes
  30. Dec 24

    EU v. TURKEY in EAST MED in 2020: With Italy having fully swung to France's position on Libya, Germany (Merkel) will determine how hard the EU acts against Turkey in East Med in 2020

    6 replies 23 retweets 23 likes
  31. Dec 24

    Italy Continues to Openly Move Against Tripoli - EU opposition to Turkey in E. Med. stiffening GNA head Fayez Al-Sarraj has criticized Italy's rejection of Turkey-Libya(GNA) deal as Rome soon to welcome visit from LNA Commander General Khalifa Haftar

    2 replies 16 retweets 28 likes
  32. Dec 23

    The narrative that Sarraj heads the internationally recognized gov't. of Libya will continue to be undermined by EU countries and the U.S. Expect more in 2020 (The legal standing is ambiguous according to Skhirat when the HOR rejects Sarraj's treaties)

    After Agilah Saleh's visit, the Greek parliament stated that the HoR was the representative of the -n people/state. Greek FM arrived in yesterday & met with & PM Thini & FM Lahweej. The Greeks (with implications for the EU) are escalating diplomatically.
    2 replies 5 retweets 5 likes
  33. Retweeted
    Dec 23

    My final piece for this year on -Trends in 2020, co-authors are Sofia Maria Satanakis () and Michael Zinkanell.

    7 replies 27 retweets 51 likes
    Show this thread
    Show this thread
  34. Dec 23

    “The Islamic Republic is in danger. Do whatever it takes to end it. You have my order,” the supreme leader told the group, one of the sources said. Long read piece by Reuters

    Reuters reporting about 1500 were killed in Nov protests in (17 teenagers, 400 women + some members of security forces/police). Figures provided to agency by 3 Iranian interior ministry officials & higher than figures given by human rights groups.
    5 retweets 4 likes
  35. Dec 23

    ICYMI "As U.S. increasingly relinquishes its role as primary security guarantor in the Middle East, China & Russia are pursuing a unique opportunity to reorient both Iran & its regional rivals into an emerging Sino-Russian Eurasian architecture." I explain how in report below

    CHINA and RUSSIA in MIDDLE EAST "The Middle East‘s Year of the Dragonbear: The 2020 emergence of a Sino-Russian strategic architecture bridging Iran and its Arab Gulf Rivals"…
    Show this thread
    1 reply 11 retweets 8 likes
  36. Dec 22

    With Russian air cover, Assad's make significant advances in Idlib. SAA positioning itself to capture key city of Ma'arrat al-Nu'maan. Impacts Libya equation too. (See map via below)

    10 retweets 3 likes
  37. Retweeted
    Dec 8

    EGYPTIAN NAVY CAPABILITIES: A brief and useful backgrounder by Egypt’s navy modernization, The growth of new power in the Middle east via

    3 replies 29 retweets 63 likes
  38. Dec 22

    Expect Haftar to meet with many more EU-member state ministers is 2020

    GM Déndias meets head Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi. /via
    Show this thread
    1 reply 13 retweets 20 likes
  39. Dec 22

    Turkey advances in the race for naval dominance in the Mediterranean with 1st domestically-produced air independent power (AIP) submarine. [Note: Air indepdendent power is technically more correct as it is not the propulsion system]

    LIVE — Turkey’s first domestically produced submarine Piri Reis launched at official ceremony in Gölcük, home of the Turkish Navy
    5 replies 40 retweets 65 likes
  40. Dec 22

    Turkish forces again under seige in Idlib

    This is the second encircled Turkish OP in İdlib. Slow but robust northward and northwest-facing movement of SAA-Iran and Russia
    3 retweets 5 likes