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A frozen
#Europe & an incoherent#US hamper#Germany's Berlin process on#Libya. Yet,#Haftar-backers' maneuvering also ripens the landscape for cooperation between an assertive#Turkey & a machiavellian#Russia. My latest@CarnegieEndow's@SadaJournalhttps://carnegieendowment.org/sada/80628 -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
أنيس شقلابو اللي توفى في قصف اليوم في
#الزاوية كان هذا مليشياوي معناها ياريته الناس كلهم مليشيات .. اللهم اغفر له اللهم ارحمه . ربي يرحمك أنيسpic.twitter.com/97jzpBPnQjThis media may contain sensitive material. Learn more -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
The point here isn't for you to pick a side. It is to realise that certain narratives around terrorism, legitimacy, and ideology are complete nonsense. This is a civil war with direct foreign intervention that is likely to last beyond any conclusion in Tripoli.
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Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
The presidency issued today a press release in which it affirmed that
#Tunisia refuses to be a part of any coalition or lineup in the region, and that every inch of the national soil will only be under the Tunisian sovereignty alone.pic.twitter.com/eIusl4vDl5 -
Another war crime added to what has now become a daily occurrence:
#Haftar's#LAAF conducted strikes on#Zawiya today (on a pharmacy & a bakery). Initial reporting indicates there are several civilian casualties (both injured and dead).https://twitter.com/Elganga90/status/1210178458669735936… -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
It is official: Libya's Tripoli based government has approved a request demanding Turkish military assistance "by land sea and air," a senior GNA official tells me, to repel Haftar's offensive on the capital.
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Not sure if going from broadcasting & publishing one's warped views via TV channels & online outlets they de-facto own to having them published by Sputnik is considered progress...
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Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
Snapshot of perpetual Libya rumour mill and disinformation war - claims either 200 Syrian "jihadists" sent by Turkey to support GNA, or Shabiha sent to support Haftar, depending which side you're on. Shared by partisans, western and AJ "journalists", propagandists…pic.twitter.com/bBsVoWUjFu
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Unlike his other backers,
#Russia isn't beholden to#Haftar. Its actions can sow discord w/in#EU/#NATO & undermine the#US. The question of whether it will temper its backing of Haftar depends on its assessment of whether it can still do the above.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/turkey-erdogan-surprise-visit-tunisia-discuss-libya-191225152224537.html… -
Yes, Al-Abani (head of
#Tripoli's Religious Endowment Authority) has communicated with Rabee Al-Madkhalee to confirm whether he issued a fatwa that urged his Saladi Madkhalist followers to join the ranks of#Haftar's#LAAF to attack Tripoli. Rabee responded he "didn't remember".https://twitter.com/elfaitur/status/1209868941402738688… -
A good overview of the contemporary relationship between
#Turkey & the#US, the former's standing within#NATO &#Erdogan's potential rapprochement with#Russia. All of this has ramifications affecting#Syria, but also#Libya.https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-faces-a-fresh-quandary-as-turkey-tips-toward-russia-11577269801?shareToken=st050f33350a944c2581fe061ac47930d7&reflink=share_mobilewebshare… -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
تعرف على بديل
#حفتر المحتمل في#ليبيا#السلطة5@dw_arabicpic.twitter.com/wy7Qj65siAعارف النايض يتقرّب من واشنطن.. هل سينافس خليفة حفتر؟ -
In May 2019, Turkey began providing material support to anti-LAAF groups. In Aug 2019, this material support had all but disappeared. However, Erdogan was increasingly vocal about
#Libya & signed MoUs w/ Sarraj. Current commentary assumes April's material support never abated. -
#Erdogan confirmed to be in#Tunisia, probably for#Libya-related reasons. Lots of speculation concerning the reasons; these could be: - Kais Saied attempting to show he can mediate in#Libya - Erdogan requesting Tunisian logistical support for supplying#GNA-aligned groupshttps://twitter.com/tcbestepe/status/1209784089391370246… -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
Haftar associated biz P4-BAA and Turkish 2 (top gov't VIP) TC-IST landing Tunis nowpic.twitter.com/X99yEse4K0
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The "face"
#Tripoli put on for months, feigning indifference to keep a semblance of normalcy. But heavy congestion betrays waves of displacement since April, & sounds of artillery in the distance are a constant reminder of the blights of war. Frontlines tell a different story.pic.twitter.com/uUKAniEc8t -
"Leaders of two different groups of
#Sudan-ese fighters active in#Libya have told the Guardian that they had received hundreds of new recruits in recent months. Both groups were fighting with the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa#Haftar"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/24/mercenaries-flock-to-libya-raising-fears-of-prolonged-war… -
"A quadripartite summit between
#Cyprus,#Egypt,#Greece &#France is expected to be held on January 4 or 5 in Cairo" Between this summit & the concomitant#Turkey-#Russia summit, I reckon the latter will be far more relevant to#Libya's military scene.https://cyprus-mail.com/2019/12/24/greek-fm-announces-quadripartite-summit-between-cyprus-egypt-greece-and-france-in-january/… -
FWIW, Germany recognized the conflict could no longer be exclusively resolved by Libyans a while ago. I'm just saying that more escalation will render Libyan initiatives to halt fighting meaningless - therefore making the "solution" exclusively foreign. Happy Independence Day.
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I think we've never been less "independent". The next bout of escalation in this civil war will, imho, shift the dynamics of the conflict & its resolution. In essence, it will no longer be about stopping Libyans fighting, but about compelling foreign nations to de-escalate.
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Lots of cynicism over
#Libya's "Independence Day" (24 December), both online & offline. Warranted, since the country's 3rd bout of civil war in less than a decade, sparked by Haftar's offensive on April 4th, has led to a never-before seen internationalization of the conflict.Show this thread -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
A sample of
#Libyan#terrorists who survived precision targeted#airstrikes to root them out of their hiding place in#Tripoli#Libya. She keeps asking when is her leg going to grow back.#nation_of_amputeeshttps://twitter.com/Layla62260823/status/1209171337958363144… -
Your monthly hodge podge of rubbish, courtesy of Ethan Chorin on
@Forbes. I'm surprised there isn't a reviewer at Forbes that can correct some of the factual inaccuracies & misleading narratives the author sets here. It's not the first time this happens.https://www.forbes.com/sites/ethanchorin/2019/12/23/confronting-turkeys-christmas-surprise/… -
#EU on#Libya: "All participants to the Berlin process should engage constructively in bringing about a peaceful resolution to the conflict" The Berlin process has shown that some Libyans aren't alone in viewing politics in zero-sum terms, meddlers do toohttps://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage_en/72546/Libya:%20Statement%20of%20the%20Spokesperson%20on%20increased%20tension… -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
General Ahmed Gaid Salah, Algeria’s powerful army chief, has passed away.https://twitter.com/radiompost/status/1209047729718153216…
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Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
There are thousands of families impacted in the war in
#Libya. It's incredibly important their voices are amplified and stories shared.https://twitter.com/emad_badi/status/1208774065005174786… -
The more poignant quote is from Omar, a Misratan civilian whose mother & sister narrowly survived a
#UAE drone strike as they were inside his house, preparing for Omar's wedding. "We watched death pass through our home. A house can be rebuilt. A family cannot.”https://twitter.com/emad_badi/status/1208769316293881856… -
Story by
@raghavanWaPo on the destructive impact of drones in#Libya, w/ comments by me. Thanks to Emirati-operated drones,#Haftar has achieved military superiority in#Tripoli's skies. This was enabled by#UAE's Al-Khadim airbase in Eastern#Libya.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/libyas-conflict-increasingly-fought-by-cheap-powerful-drones/2019/12/21/a344b02c-14ea-11ea-bf81-ebe89f477d1e_story.html#click=https://t.co/o6I1yQzKbN… -
ICYMI: my latest piece on
@SadaJournal analyzes the international maneuvering that preceded & followed the#Turkey-#GNA MoU.#Greece's FM's visit to#Cyrenaica to meet Eastern#Libya officials today is part of the effort to withdraw recognition from#GNA.https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/80628 -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
Pro-
#Haftar tweeps worried that#Algeria might already be backing#GNA. A warranted concern indeed#Algiers had opposed the war for#Tripoli since the#UAE bombed it in Aug ’14. After 2019 hiatus, the presidential election’s outcome was much less#UAE-friendly than anticipatedhttps://twitter.com/dodycat42/status/1208430165350584322…Show this thread -
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Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
Let’s not forget themhttps://twitter.com/pressfreedom/status/1208106306101481477…
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"The
#US official said the involvement of#Russia-n mercenaries so far has not tipped the conflict in favour of Haftar. It's creating a bloodier conflict" I wonder what qualifies as "tipping the conflict in favour of#Haftar" if this doesn't.https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1YP0DM?__twitter_impression=true…Show this thread -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
The only thing interesting about this silly essay is that UAE’s ABZ tweeted it out. Which is interesting.https://twitter.com/abzayed/status/1208318393176252416…
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The last time
#Haftar's#LAAF targeted Turkish citizens (by arresting a few workers in#Cyrenaica back in July), it had to capitulate in less than 48 hours & release them after threats from Erdogan himself.https://twitter.com/MoMo_elumami/status/1208484043974684673…0:44 -
#US State Dept statement reflecting the lack of coherent policy in#Washington: There's been ~14 foreign conducted airstrikes on#Misrata 2 days ago. As for GNA's request for#Turkey's support & the escalation that may ensue, it is a direct result of US/#Europe inaction. https://twitter.com/emad_badi/status/1208404941695533057 …pic.twitter.com/b1menEsf56 -
Emadeddin Badi Retweeted
Russian mercenaries backing Libyan rebel Khalifa Haftar now spearheading a battle to capture the capital, interior minister says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-21/libya-security-chief-says-russians-spearheading-tripoli-fighting … via
@bpolitics -
So, guess which actor he'll share an ideological alignment with & he'll likely naturally be compelled to back...
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"
#Kadyrov’s most frequent dealings are w/ GCC states [...]. For him, Gulf states are a natural point of engagement: authoritarian Islamic states, awash with rentier revenue, & ruled by a security-oriented clique of leaders who enjoy a strongman image"https://thedefensepost.com/2018/12/27/russia-chechnya-gulf-security-relationship/…Show this thread