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8. It's finally worth mentioning that use of Chinese UAVs has become normal in Iranian armed forces. Just recently
#NEDAJA claimed design and build of a UAV which was very close to the Griflion M8 by Chinese MMCAV and Tiger Shark by Chinese Sparkle Tech.https://twitter.com/mhmiranusa/status/1200800425093545987?s=20…Show this thread -
7. Serat-01 has a fuel consumption of 0.42 kg/hr. Replacing just the 32 kg warhead with fuel will increase the range enough to reach maximum of 900 km claimed by the US which easily helps them reach Abqaiq from Omidiyeh (direct~540 km, ~900 from Kuwait).pic.twitter.com/0BFZJ163Ei
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6. There remains one problem. ASN-301 is a downgraded copy of Harpy with 280 km range. However, considering they didn't need much of 32 kg warhead and anti-radiation seeker for attack on an oil facility, it was easy to replace those with additional fuel thus increasing its range.pic.twitter.com/ELixGIjw6r
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5. This thread shows a dark spot and tire marks appearing near Omidiyeh Air Base, Iran between Sept 13th and 15th. The burn scar radius points going towards NNE i.e. launch toward SSW (toward Abqaiq). Consistent with launch of ASN-301 type UAV from trucks.https://twitter.com/RelicHq/status/1205385211070038017…
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4. ASN-301 is launched in trucks having 6 or 9 canisters which is consistent with 18 UAVs shot to Abqaiq.pic.twitter.com/vTBT7yG9y9
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3. The engine shown by the US is the Serat-01 Iranian engine (copy of Chinese MDR208 Single rotor Wankel-type spark ignition engine) with power of 35 hp close to ASN-301 engine (38 hp).pic.twitter.com/AQcPgMHPfJ
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2. ASN-301 has a wing span of 2.2 m close to the UAV shown by
@modgovksa. Picture analyzed by@SnakeDocTop.pic.twitter.com/qk5DeK87hCShow this thread -
1. Based on all the
#OSINT analyses done on Aramco Abqaiq attack UAV so far and US government data, I guess the Iranians obtained the ASN-301 Chinese UAV (export version of the Chinese copy of the Israeli Harpy UAV) & copied it with their own equipment. I will show why#Thread.pic.twitter.com/7hC0YlkiGOShow this thread -
New pictures by
@Reuters from US report to@UN Security Council on the UAV used for Aramco attack in Abqaiq. Shows its engine & vertical gyro compared to the ones from Iranian Shahed-123 UAV and a far picture of that delta wing UAV in an IRGC exhibition.pic.twitter.com/kJrMtb7gozShow this thread -
#CVN75 escort included Ticonderoga class cruiser USS Normandy and Arleigh Burke class destroyers USS McFaul, and Bainbridge.#USNavy picture shows AB class USS Forrest Sherman from original CSG which were deployed sooner came back for support during Bab Al-Mandeb strait transit. https://twitter.com/PutinIsAVirus/status/1207156381603844096 …pic.twitter.com/Mp4KlkJiLS -
Sorry for the typo,
#CVN72 USS Abraham Lincoln.Show this thread -
It seems that the boats escorting
#USNavy aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln while passing strait of Hormuz were actually Mark VI patrol boats assigned to Commander, Task Force 56 in a high value asset (HVA) escort of#CVN75. Pictures show the mission start in Manama, Dec 2nd.pic.twitter.com/LU3Z3zZtZiShow this thread -
BAMS-D system consists of Block 10 RQ-4A, Mission Control Element (MCE), Launch & Recovery Elements (LRE) & a Tactical Auxiliary Ground Station (TAGS). The one shot by
#Iran was retired by#USAirForce & transferred to#USNavy. It wasn't a new “Triton” one. https://www.navair.navy.mil/product/BAMS-DShow this thread -
Another Global Hawk BAMS-D UAV is down this time by a FOD during takeoff in U.S. 5th Fleet AOR. Out of 5 original BAMS-D modified by the Navy from Air Force R-Q4A, only 2 remain in service. One was shot by Iran & another crashed in Chesapeake Bay in 2012.https://news.usni.org/2019/12/12/navy-rq-4a-surveillance-drone-suffers-major-damage-in-middle-east…
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In 2016, Houthis fired 2 C-802s to USS Mason & Ponce. Mason launched 2 SM-2s & 1 ESSM to intercept & also used Nulka anti-ship missile decoy. Not clear what destroyed the missiles. But possibly now Iran provided improvised versions to test against
#USNavy.https://news.usni.org/2016/10/11/uss-mason-fired-3-missiles-to-defend-from-yemen-cruise-missiles-attack…Show this thread -
1. Intelligence
Iranian threat agnst US forces in ME 2. USS Normandy rushes back form ME to Atlantic to spprt carrier Truman heading ME (spprtd by USS McFaul, Ross, & BainBridge) 3. Noor AShM discovered from Iranian boat to Yemen. Threat agnst Truman grp in Bab-el-Mandeb strait?pic.twitter.com/ArAlCEpeTI
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The DOS pictures of weapons transferred on boat from Iran to Yemen included Dehlavieh missiles (both ATGM & Thermobaric), Misagh-2 man portable SAMs & Noor Anti-Ship cruise missile (C-802 copy). Houthis have used older versions of all these weapons before.https://twitter.com/_KhodaBiamorz/status/1202696273431842822…
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Iranian Belal oil field where USS Abraham Lincoln was exercising is located near Iran maritime boundary with Qatar. USS Abraham Lincoln is in last days of operation in the region and it will be replaced by USS Harry Truman
#CVN75 which is on her way to the region.pic.twitter.com/OUGoZCoRBvShow this thread -
USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier
#CVN72 has been stationed for a while near the Iranian Belal oil field and the#USNavy F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters were exercising in a show of force against Iran. Video captured by Iranian oil workers.https://youtu.be/DDoAwa3PdUkShow this thread -
I had an educated guess which came true. Land attack and anti ship cruise missiles, SAMs, and ATGMs were on board Iranian boat which was seized by the
#USNavy. https://twitter.com/mhmiranusa/status/1202636876877840385 …pic.twitter.com/foEMZlL7BJShow this thread -
Maximum pressure policy & deterrence usually don't work along each other. When pressure passes a point, the effect of deterrence diminishes rapidly. If your enemy ends up having nothing to lose, then no deterrence will work and you will head for war.https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-considers-14-000-more-troops-for-mideast-11575494228…
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But the Orions still did it anyway which could be due to the system not working for some reason (jamming?) or they just got used to it.pic.twitter.com/EypBd9eXQb
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Having this upgarde, the Orion shouldn't have needed to get so dangerously close to USN ships and avoid getting targeted or meeting Hornets. It happened in 2012 when it got close to the carrier Abarham Lincoln which happens to be in the Persian Gulf now. https://medium.com/war-is-boring/now-the-whole-story-of-that-one-time-an-iranian-patrol-plane-buzzed-an-american-flattop-3606c327b281 …pic.twitter.com/41wYE7DDLo
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The upgrade was done in an IRIAF project called Mosavvar-2 (meaning illustrated). Picture Thanks to
@SorenaNoshad. The ability to send real time picture to the Iranian AFBs, should give them some stand-off online surveillance and tracking capability.pic.twitter.com/mt8rlkjxWlShow this thread -
This upgrade was first seen in the annual Iranian military parade (Holy Defense week) held this September.pic.twitter.com/wSRAdt80Wj
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#Thread An interesting point in the new#USNavy picture of the Iranian P-3F passing close by the USS Normandy and USNS Alen Shepard is the Iranian Orion new upgrades. An electro-optic system under the body and a data link pod under the right wing. https://twitter.com/CavasShips/status/1200286022254370816 …pic.twitter.com/0DgzdqwXqbShow this thread -
4.2. China also displayed a trimaran frigate design almost 3 yrs ago similar to this Iranian one. 2,450 tons; Speed probably 30 kn+. 76-100 mm gun; VLS behind the gun and forward of the superstructure; SSM in canister launchers amidships, CIWS and chaff.https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/idex/2017/02/21/china-displays-trimaran-frigate-design/…
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4.1. Another announcement (not in the
@Iran_Military post) was a scaled mock-up of a trimaran frigate. Looks like they are trying to copy the#USNavy Independence-class littoral combat ship hull design. Claimed capabilities by@AmirIGM.https://twitter.com/AmirIGM/status/1200727201378918401?s=20…Show this thread -
3.The Jask-2 underwater missile which can be launched from all Iranian submarines including Ghadir midget submarines. It's launched like a torpedo(capsule has its own motor) which probably limits the mass & missile motor starts after getting out of water.https://youtu.be/ueLbBB4LT9U
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2. The
#Soren project is an Inertial navigation system (#INS) for deep water navigation of#Fateh class submarines. This is the first Inertial navigation system for an Iranian submarine. No claim on the accuracy of the system has been given.https://youtu.be/dfgYOfm9iMcShow this thread -
1.2. It's interesting that Pelican-1 was also very close to a quadplane. Quadplanes are made with a very basic fixed-wing radio control aircraft kit and customizing it with off-the-shelf quadcopter components. Pics thanks to
@Azematt http://ardupilot.org/plane/docs/quadplane-building.html …pic.twitter.com/QoVK9HtOcNShow this thread -
The tweet itself announces 1.1. A "hybrid UAV" which is very close to Griflion M8 made by MMCAV. Looks like
#NEDAJA bought this commercially available drone and copied it. The capabilities of the Iranian Pelican-2 is not clear. http://www.mmcuav.com/portfolio-items/griflion-m8/ …pic.twitter.com/g8pdomQ2EiShow this thread -
The picture shows (from Top to Bottom): Moudge class frigate Jamaran Alvand class frigate Sabalan Alvand class frigate Alborz Bayandor class Patrol Frigate Naghdi Kaman class fast attack craft Zoubin, Khadang, and Neyzeh.https://twitter.com/Iran_Military/status/1200673930379513856…
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Iran not only could get away with her previous attacks; but also gained some life line against the Trump maximum pressure campaign. They could keep some oil export to China by attack to tankers & regained some financial channels in UAE after Aramco attack.https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Intensity-of-US-military-visits-shows-urgency-of-Iran-threat-analysis-608892…
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South Korea's pocket is not as deep as Saudis. It would be interesting to see Trump pulling US forces if they don't pay up. US is not the free police of the world anymore.https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/14/politics/trump-south-korea-troops-price-hike/index.html…
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Aviation Ordnanceman 3rd Class Michelle Estrada cleans a gatling gun (My guess M61A2) aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln
#CVN72 which experiences its last weeks of the current extended deployment in the Middle East, Nov. 12, 2019 .#Navy#USNavypic.twitter.com/FYdPwvt2Hz -
New close images from NASA’s Juno spacecraft from Jupiter. Left: A stunningly detailed look at a cyclonic storm in Jupiter’s atmosphere during Juno's 23rd close flyby of the planet. Right: A jet stream on the Jupiter's upper hemisphere known as "Jet N3".pic.twitter.com/g0ShwRXEMh
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The Namavaran field gross thickness is around 80 m (wrongfully reported before as depth by some news agencies) and its depth is around 3100 m (close to the lower bound of my rough guess).https://twitter.com/mhmiranusa/status/1193514510369394688?s=20…
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The Namvavarn field oil API is said to be around 24 which is heavier than the current Iranian heavy oil, but not the heaviest in the list of Iranian oils. That's probably one of the reasons for the expected low recovery rate of 10% (Iran's average around 20%).pic.twitter.com/NK7cu6I5XA
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The Namavaran field development will be divided in the current fields (Mansouri, Sepehr, Ab Teymour, and Soosangerd).pic.twitter.com/Uw2GZHjXwE
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