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  1. Pinned Tweet

    NEW - "The Effect: Fractures" - My deep dive into AQ's attempts to exploit the war in & the implications of its struggles to do so.

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  2. Retweeted

    The Caesar Bill looks set to further strangle the Syrian economy & substantially broaden America’s ability to punish those involved in carrying out or supporting the Assad regime’s crimes, writes .

  3. Gathering from recent high-level discussions with officials, is not at all confident about . MIT will respond covertly (via : arms, intel etc.) & /MFA will push back on , but ultimately, concern about a "catastrophic loss" is rising.

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  4. BREAKING - The will be signed into law by tomorrow at 7.20pm EST. From then, the will be active.

  5. BREAKING - Pro- forces have launched a new ground offensive on , focused primarily on advancing north up the M5 to Marat al-Numan (long-time opponents of ). Expect to exploit new night capabilities, transferred via a newly enhanced training program.

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  7. Retired Near East officer : - "Senior officials pushed the concept of providing just enough military assistance to 's opposition to compel to negotiate & even step down. I found that to be... patently misguided."

  8. ICYMI - My latest in-depth paper on , looked at their experience in since 2011 & what it means for their future worldwide. Lots of interesting details in here - check it out! - "The Effect: Fractures"

  9. Days ago at , 's insisted that *only* refugees from the NE would be returned to the NE - in coordination with . This number below (~350,000), is what I too have heard, representing who've fled NE to as refugees.

  10. Retweeted

    Caesar Bill could ratchet up US sanctions on the regime and its allies | writes how this legislation aims to isolate the Syrian economy & broaden US powers to punish actor supporting the regime.

  11. NEW - 3+ reported killed in a gun attack outside the HQ in central . Reports say the shooting began inside the lobby.

  12. Lots of talk this AM about a possible request for troops. Just days ago, told this: - "Sending troops [to ] is a very easy thing... first we have to see a request from the legitimate government in ."

  13. Retweeted

    ...”further strangle Syrian economy, isolate it from global system, broaden America’s ability to punish actors involved in committing Assad regime’s crimes or in providing support that allows them to be perpetrated; sanction those who reengage w/ regime or Syrian economy”

  14. Retweeted

    NEW - Here's the English version of my latest piece, looking at the soon-to-be passed & its impact on & the admin's policy:

  15. & are clearly engaged in a massive escalation in air strikes on , in possible preparation for a renewed ground offensive. I'm told there've been 170+ strikes in 48hrs, plus heavy artillery shelling. 1,000s civilians fleeing.

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  16. retains significant capabilities in 's -"controlled" central desert. In the last 48hrs, it captured a town (al-Shula) & cut a major highway (the M20) between al-Sukhna & Deir ez Zour. Regime militias are struggling to contain east of the .

  17. As 's economy nosedives & 's Army continues to suffer a crippling manpower shortage, here's ' next move - seize assets of all men avoiding conscription until they pay an $8,000 fine. And we wonder why won't go back to regime territory...

  18. Retweeted

    The Syria Effect: Al-Qaeda Fractures - by Charles Lister

  19. Retweeted

    The Syria Effect: Al-Qaeda Fractures - by Charles Lister

  20. Retweeted

    The Syria Effect: Al-Qaeda Fractures - by Charles Lister

  21. Retweeted

    شارلز ليستر - «قانون قيصر» وإجبار النظام السوري على التسوية

  22. Retweeted

    لن يستسلم نظام الأسد حال شلت أميركا الاقتصاد السوري وعزلت دمشق عن بقية العالم، ونفس الحال بالنسبة لإيران، وهو أمر واضح - شارلز ليستر

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    Potentially very significant for since it has recently started to engage with 's more openly. Important report on consequences of now becoming law in - via

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    Highly informative paper by on al-Qaeda in Syria; illustrates the general challenge for AQ-leadership to reap benefits of a decentralized strategy, while struggling to maintain full control over its local branches

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    لن يستسلم نظام الأسد حال شلت أميركا الاقتصاد السوري وعزلت دمشق عن بقية العالم، ونفس الحال بالنسبة لإيران، وهو أمر واضح. - شارلز ليستر

  26. Today, this White Helmets volunteer, Anwar Hamidi, lost his whole family - his wife & 3 daughters - in an / airstrike in in . This is - beyond imagination.

  27. BREAKING - The U.S. Senate has just passed the 2020 NDAA (86 vs. 8), paving the way for to sign it through in the coming days. That means the is days away from becoming U.S. law - a big deal for . See my latest on the issue (above).

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  28. My latest (Ar.) for looks at the imminent passage of the Caesar Bill in - an extraordinarily expansive assault on an already crippled economy. looks to be target No.1 - but even U.S. allies could come under fire, should they re-engage .

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  29. Retweeted

    An good piece ⁦⁩ « The Effect: Fractures » with a couple of references to my work on

  30. والأهم من ذلك أن «مشروع قيصر» سيخول الحكومة بمعاقبة أي فرد أو منظمة في أي مكان في العالم يثبت تقديمها لأي شكل من أشكال الدعم المالي للنظام من شأنه أن يعزز قدرته على قمع شعبه.

  31. مقالتي الجديدة ، في : - "«قانون قيصر» وإجبار النظام على التسوية"

  32. Retweeted

    Highly recommended read by ⁦⁩ for ⁦👇 The Syria Effect: Al-Qaeda Fractures

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    My new paper is a deep-dive into the evolution of 's campaign in & its struggles with managing a locally-focused jihad. The implications are significant & relevant far beyond . Read here:

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    🥇Article of the Day🥇 's decision to "turn local" proved popular but provoked internal conflict between affiliates and AQ's distant central leadership, writes for . All picks:

  35. Since HaD's capture of 's emir in Mhambel, has set up multiple new checkpoints in the town & has ordered all HaD positions in the area to surrender. Tension is high. For more on -HaD relations, see my new paper, here:

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  36. A new round of tit-for-tat raids & arrests has begun between & in western . 12+ individuals have been taken in 24hrs, including 's emir in Mhambel.

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