Michael Tanchum

@michaeltanchum

Senior Fellow |Politics/Energy/Security - E. Med to the Gulf |Türkiye ایران الشرق الأوسط भारत |BL et al |PhD |تصوف

Joined August 2015
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Oct 3

    E. MED: There is a better way! My Mediterranean Energy Hub proposal. A win-win solution for all the peoples of the Eastern Med. English Español Türkçe

    3 replies 28 retweets 55 likes
  2. Retweeted
    3 hours ago

    The final communique of the summit in will signal -in my opinion- how fast or slow the reconciliation process between Arabia and will be.....So, let us wait and see!

    2:20
    King of Arabia is receiving ’s PM upon his arrival. Unlike the last time, you can see smiles and a relatively longer period of talks between them.…
    3 retweets 9 likes
  3. 3 hours ago

    France is Turkey's most problematic NATO ally. France is a military and commercial power in the Maghreb, Sahel, and (to a lesser extent) the East Med. with a similar policy orientation as the UAE. The gap will widen bw them if not addressed

    1:29
    Erdogan mocks Macron: “France, instead of solving domestic issues, is always occupied with abroad. [Macron] went to Mali. What…
    4 replies 16 retweets 29 likes
  4. 3 hours ago

    There will not be Syria-type deal between Russia and Turkey in Libya. Russia could not strong-arm Egypt into participating in an Astana Process-type framework for Libya, even if Russia wanted to do so (which it does not).

    Could just be him musing aloud. But if he did it could set up tensions with (which backs strongman there): says could send troops into if invited by the internationally backed government via
    1 reply 5 retweets 8 likes
  5. 4 hours ago

    President Erdoğan's interview map suggests joint offshore Turkish-Libya oil exploration south of Crete where Greece is planning to explore. Erdoğan also discussed the possibility of sending troops to Libya if GNA requests Turkey to do so

    2:09
    Turkish President made a case for sending Turkish army troops and arms to last night, raising stakes in the Mediterranean.
    1 reply 4 retweets 8 likes
  6. 16 hours ago

    The GNA is expecting Turkey to step up as a security provider after TR-Lib deal alienated Greece and the rest of the EU--> Libya has the world's 9th largest oil reserves and the largest in Africa, so it doesn't need to do joint hydrocarbon exploration with Turkey.

    - We have spoiled the game to lock Turkey out of the Mediterranean - We will continue to protect the rights of Turkish Cypriots…
    Show this thread
    1 reply 10 retweets 12 likes
  7. Retweeted
    Dec 8

    Shiite man from Baalbek (where Hizbullah was born) says he was a Hizbullah employee but now unemployed for months. People in Baalbek-Hermel "dying of hunger", "eating garbage", he says. The much-hyped social safety net provided by Hizb is fraying.

    2:20
    عن الوجع في بعلبك-الهرمل. ضرورة المشاهدة.
    4 replies 40 retweets 62 likes
  8. 16 hours ago

    The Libya conflict is not "static" and there is no "stalemate" does a good job of explaining how the war has tilted in Haftar's favor starting at 20:30

    Inside the Libyan trap: France 24 on the frontline
    5 retweets 8 likes
  9. 17 hours ago

    ⚫️Turkey-Libya joint hydrocarbon exploration is possible ⚫️Turkey sending troops to Libya, if GNA asks, is possible - Erdoğan speaking about Libya on TRT

    : #’s on :…
    2 replies 5 retweets 8 likes
  10. 17 hours ago

    ICYMI Commander of Libya's LNA Navy Admiral Faraj el Mahdawi, who studied at the Hellenic Naval Academy (as have several Libyan naval officers), promises to liberate Tripoli and to destroy Turkey's dreams.

    Admiral El Mahdawi Farag, Leader of Libyan Navy Forces wrote in Greek "We will liberate Tripoli and destroy Turkish dreams."…
    Show this thread
    2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
  11. Retweeted
    17 hours ago

    “There have been nine rocket attacks on or in the vicinity of Iraqi facilities that host US troops in the last five weeks with the most recent one taking place on Monday.”

    8 retweets 9 likes
  12. Retweeted
    24 hours ago

    An entire busload of protesters has disappeared.

    Also still missing - an entire busload of Karbala protestors who disappeared yesterday while on the road from Baghdad...
    1 reply 8 retweets 4 likes
  13. Dec 9

    KSA position in the East Med. is not new. is quite correct. Important to note that KSA has been generally following the path blazed by the UAE in the East Med. See my TL today for details

    1) Actually the position in this regard is not new at all 2) Depending on ’s position in several alike situations versus , this will result nothing…
    2 replies 4 retweets 4 likes
  14. Dec 9

    Italian Naval Frigate docks in Larnaca, Cyprus as EU FMs discuss Turkey-Libya(GNA) deal. Note: Italy has upped its port call diplomacy in CY. This is 3rd IT naval visit in 2 months.

    🇮🇹🙏🇨🇾🙏🇬🇷 Che visione meravigliosa. Il Martinengo è oggi a Larnaca, Cipro. Come promesso dal Ministro della Difesa Guerini, l'Italia avrebbe aumentato la propria presenza in area, in chiaro sostegno ai nostri partner…
    Show this thread
    4 replies 9 retweets 14 likes
  15. Dec 9

    "Because of its strong partnership with Egypt, the UAE’s new presence in the Eastern Mediterranean serves to bolster Cairo’s regional role, impacting Turkey’s own regional energy diplomacy and its options concerning the Cyprus issue." My 2017 op-ed

    2 replies 15 retweets 12 likes
  16. Dec 9

    U.S. signals approval of Iran's President Rouhani visit to Tokyo as Japanese PM Abe signals Japan's participation in a Persian Gulf Maritime Protection Force. h/t

    7 retweets 4 likes
  17. Dec 9

    The UAE Factor in Libya-East Med Crisis: Building on its relationship with Egypt, the UAE in 2017 upgraded its diplomatic and economic relationship with Cyprus and its military relationship with Greece and Israel. Background:

    5 replies 4 retweets 2 likes
  18. Dec 8

    EU foreign ministers are to hold talks today on a maritime territory deal between Turkey and Libya via

    1 reply 15 retweets 19 likes
  19. Retweeted
    Dec 8

    This strike against the CTS itself feels to me like Soleimani throwing down the gauntlet in a bid for psychological dominance. If even the vaunted CTS with its close western allies can be struck with impunity, then we all know who has a monopoly on violence in Iraq. 1/2

    2 replies 9 retweets 19 likes
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  20. Dec 8

    IRAQ: Iran-aligned PMUs pushing Iraq into the abyss ❌Rocket attack on Baghdad airport military base, Iraqi counter-terrorism forces critically wounded. ❌Fahim al Taei assassinated in Karbala ❌Gunmen open fire on protesters in Tahrir Square.

    More rockets knocking at the door of military zone at BIAP. Iran-axis PMF v Sadr dialling up. Targeted killings of activists. Really dangerous times in Iraq
    1 reply 2 retweets 1 like
  21. Dec 8

    IRAQ: Fahim al Taei assassinated in Karbala, a sign that Iraq is heading into the abyss

    This area is super secured in Karbala, it is less than hundreds of meters away from the entrances of Imam Hussain shrine , assassins on a motorcycle gunned down prominent activist Fahim Al Taei tonight. Fahim had…
    4 retweets 2 likes
  22. Dec 8

    Boris goes to Bollywood . . . [Bilkul paagal hai]

    1:39
    A call to the British Indian community to vote Conservative
    4 replies 2 retweets 3 likes
  23. Retweeted
    Dec 8

    The Hariri family has earned $108 million between 2006 & 2015 from interest on the public debt. Lebanon's "political elites control 43% of assets in Lebanon’s commercial banking sector,” of AUB has calculated. Quoted by in

    3 replies 55 retweets 67 likes
  24. Retweeted
    Dec 8

    Over the last 30 yrs, Khamenei's stubbornness has cost the Iranian nation dearly Remember his message to Abe in June: "I have nothing for you to pass on to Trump" Now, Khamenei is in a rush to send Rouhani to Tokyo to figure out a way to talk to the Trump admin

    13 replies 34 retweets 75 likes
  25. Retweeted
    Dec 8

    Useful note on the current weakness of in . I would only add that sleeping cells—*if* their number has increased in over the last 8 months—have no incentive to activate until/unless the enters. They are therefore impossible to assess or observe.

    The Islamic State in Libya Has Yet to Recover (by ⁦⁩)
    1 reply 6 retweets 14 likes
  26. Retweeted
    Dec 8

    must read on why demonstrations threaten Hezbollah’s hold on Lebanese state. Lebanon Is Not a Hezbollah State

    1 retweet 2 likes
  27. Dec 8

    Will Iranian citizens give the expected 21 February 2020 parliamentary elections any legitimacy by voting? Leader of parliamentary women's faction says she will not run again as protest of regime's brutal crackdown cc

  28. Dec 8

    EGYPTIAN NAVY CAPABILITIES: A brief and useful backgrounder by Egypt’s navy modernization, The growth of new power in the Middle east via

    3 replies 26 retweets 56 likes
  29. Dec 8

    EGYPT v. TURKEY in Total Naval Power: 🔼Egypt: 6th most powerful (behind Russia at #5) 🔽Turkey: 12th most powerful (behind Pakistan at #11) [Caveat: Deployed capabilities in actual battle-space is the most crucial factor. Rankings from ]

    15 replies 35 retweets 56 likes
  30. Dec 7

    Important sign of how much Hezbollah is losing its grip

    : This is today. - or what used to be ’s heartland - defies stereotypes, threats, and intimidation. This is Hezbollah’s worst nightmare.
    4 likes
  31. Dec 7

    The protesters' bravery has transformed Iraq.

    1 like
  32. Dec 7

    Turkey ramping up in Libya as Washington and EU capitals slow down for the Christmas holiday season (Mitsotakis-Trump meeting at WH is scheduled for 7 January 2020)

    The Turks & their weapons have started arriving in & . A different kind of engagement by the Turks is underway. Journalists/analysts who spend most of their time in Tripoli/Misrata only to report on the LNA & their foreign backers should get cracking on.
    4 retweets 3 likes
  33. Dec 7

    U.S. LNG to Turkey is part of the equation in the evolving relations between Washington and Ankara (Turkey is already the 2nd largest U.S. LNG importer in the greater Europe region)

    pro-govt Sabah reports about possible U.S. - Turkey LNG deal. Turkey already imports pipeline gas from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.
    3 replies 14 retweets 23 likes
  34. Dec 7

    RUSSIA IN LIBYA: More than 1,400 Russian Mercenaries fighting with Haftar's LNA. Several reports of increased capabilities of LNA in Tripoli battle attributed to Russian military tech and hardware.

    2 replies 3 retweets 10 likes
  35. Dec 7

    IRAQ: Drone targets home of Muqtada Al-Sadr's home

    3 retweets 2 likes
  36. Dec 6

    Qatar shifts its language on Muslim Brotherhood as overture to Saudi Arabia. A significant sign of some form of GCC rapprochement. A new factor in the equation may be evolving for KSA-UAE v. Turkey rivalry [MB was a tool of Doha not a strategic partner]. h/t

    That's more or less true, in that there has never been a recognised Egyptian Brotherhood office in Doha. (there was, I think a Qatari branch once upon a time - but many years ago). That the Qatari MFA is saying so *now*, however, is a sign of thawing of relations with Saudi. …
    1 reply 11 retweets 14 likes
  37. Dec 6

    EGYPT-UAE-FRANCE Axis in E. Med/Sahel: Le Drian and Egyptian counterpart Shoukry coordinating their repsonses to Turkey-Libya (GNA) deal Egypt, France denounce ‘illegal’ MoUs between Ankara, Libya’s PM -

    17 retweets 13 likes
  38. Dec 6

    Greece to expel Libyan ambassador over Turkey-Libya accord: AJ reporter claims Athens feels deceived by Tripoli

    1 reply 3 retweets 1 like
  39. Dec 6

    "A Dangerous Policy of Turkish Containment in the Eastern Mediterranean" My article on the drivers of East Med. escalation from six months ago is more relevant than ever

    3 retweets 5 likes
  40. Retweeted
    Dec 5

    For a View of the Larger Context of Turkey-Libya (GNA) Deal --> "Turkey's String of Pearls: Turkey's Overseas Naval Installations Reconfigure the Security Architecture of Mediterranean-Red Sea Corridor" My report via

    6 replies 63 retweets 91 likes
  41. Dec 5

    'The NATO summit showed that Erdoğan believes he can have his cake and eat it, benefiting from the alliance’s collective defense guarantee while cozying up to Putin.' explains why

    6 replies 13 retweets 14 likes