이주민 / Chris Lee

2. This is not going to be a thread about how GSOMIA is critical to national security. I don't think it is. It's also not going to be about how Japan doesn't "deserve" this. I want the ROK to "win" this dispute. But I think today's decision will prompt quiet celebrations in Tokyo

3. Its no secret that the US has pushed for stronger trilateral military ties. It's also no secret that a lot of Koreans hate the idea. The trick for ROKG has always been to signal to USG that it remains open-minded about future cooperation without actually committing to anything

4. GSOMIA is perfect for this. It's a symbolic agreement that doesn't cost the ROK anything now, but leaves the door open for things in the future. This is why the Obama Admin zeroed in on it as an "easy" deliverable when more substantive trilat efforts hit a brick wall.

8. But Pres. Moon and the liberals would eventually come around. Why? Because in practice, not much information was ever shared. More important was the symbolic purpose: showing the US that for the sake of the Alliance, the ROK was at least willing to listen on trilateral issues.

9. That's the thing: even if sharing info with Japan is a national security threat, the agreement costs nothing. It doesn't force us to share any! But for the ROK-US Alliance, it means everything. It signals that despite disagreeing, we can be sensitive to our Allies' concerns

10. Cancelling GSOMIA, on the other hand, is a slap in the face to the US. It basically says "Fuck you, we value the Alliance so little relative to our need to bloody up Japan that we're not even going to keep this costless, symbolic agreement you spent 6 years mediating."

11. The most concerning thing is not how this affects POTUS, who hates alliances and if anything is celebrating today. It's how it affects the working-level officials who have been working their butts off trying to distract Trump from torpedoing the ROK-US Alliance entirely.

12. Take last year's defense cost-sharing negotiations for example. We were able to get away with a nominal one-year increase because at some point, the US negotiators had a come-to-jesus moment and said "look, let's just figure out something that will placate our boss for now."

13. That sort of working-level interference has been vital to preserving the Alliance in difficult times. Now those people are going into negotiations this year with the feeling that the ROK screwed them over. When the pressure from above intensifies, will they still play ball?

14. We've already lost POTUS. Losing the desk officers and assistant secretaries, the colonels and brigadiers could genuinely be the end of the Alliance. And as we rapidly approach the cost-sharing negotiations cliff, that unfortunately looks to be where we're headed.

15. Ironically, Japan is the only one who benefits. Both parties in this dispute have tried to get the US to take their side by painting the other as unreasonable. With this decision, Moon has slammed the nail in the ROK coffin. Abe will be uncorking some champagne tonight /end

Coda: no, attempting to actively misrepresent the US position on this does not help. I award the ROK government zero points, and may God have mercy on their souls.https://twitter.com/GalloVOA/status/1164676028750389248?s=20…