Hassan HassanVerified account
@hxhassan
Director of nonstate actors program, Center for Global Policy. NYT Bestselling Author http://goo.gl/gkRJ0u . Contributing writer, @TheAtlantic @ForeignPolicy @Guardian.
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My new piece in
@nytimes on what Baghdadi’s killing means for the Islamic State and beyond:https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/opinion/isis-baghdadi-bin-laden.html…Show this thread -
Hassan Hassan Retweeted
I doubt six months ago many of us Iraq watchers expected to see the Iranian consulate in Karbala burned before any American facility was attacked. NOT a call for US triumphalism - rather, a reminder we should be humble about what we think we know about Iraq.
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(Assad speaks about this after minute 17 in this interview https://youtu.be/eVxz_sHeL-8?t=1036 …)
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It takes time to build & entrench such structures, and it's important to ensure those structures are democratic & moderate. That was the idea, but was never seriously pursued. The current model of state return with weakened military & lack of legitimacy leaves a vacuum.
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This is at the heart of the proposal to build governance alternatives to Assad for years. The idea, at least to people like me, was never to partition Syria, but to create facts on the ground & new governance structures toward some form of locally-run de-centralization.
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Assad says that the regime considers "facts on the ground" as it tries to bring back state control to new areas captured by Damascus. Referring to eastern Syria, he says state control can't be sudden because things changed, so it has to be gradual:https://youtu.be/eVxz_sHeL-8?t=1036…
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Bashar al-Assad, during his interview this week, concedes a point that's still relevant for the rest of areas outside Damascus's control. I think some analysts usually dismiss it, but it's important:
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It’s coming together now: “US forces began patrols at oilfields on Mount Qarachokh near Derik in northeastern Syria on Friday.”pic.twitter.com/Jt8kxvZWlW
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Sensible people everywhere: “No, the U.S. didn’t invade Iraq for oil. That’s just silly.” The U.S. a decade or two later:pic.twitter.com/Q1iJGyYksz
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
Delighted to announce the launch of the Rohingya Legal Forum tomorrow in Washington DC. A new initiative with some of the most experienced international jurists to explore innovative mechanisms to address the Rohingya Genocide. Full press release & details below
@CGlobalPolicypic.twitter.com/KtXxfnKOmK
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Another interesting detail is that ex-spokesman Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, the Saudi national killed hours after Baghdadi, was closer to Baghdadi than we thought. He was hanging out with him most of the time. He & "the Hajji" were mentioned as in Idlib before Baghdadi got there.
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I have to listen to the video once more, but the video seems to confirm that Baghdadi's last appearance was indeed in Iraq, and that he left the area soon after the video for Idlib. He left behind that gun that appeared next to his right side in the video in Anbar.
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This close cousin and associate confirms the normal life that Baghdadi led before his radicalism after 2004. During his youth, there was never a sign of unusual behavior by Baghdadi. He was jailed by the US for about a year, appeared briefly and then disappeared.pic.twitter.com/b5kLC4HidT
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A lot more other details about Baghdadi’s life etc, and there is an interview with one of Baghdadi’s cousins. He was so close to him: a maternal & paternal cousin, and a member of ISIS, who was asked by Baghdadi to accompany their female & children relatives out of the area.pic.twitter.com/PhdXnwob89
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Toward the end, they had to rush out of the desert because they heard of a security raids. The wife of Baghdadi’s courier, Hanan, told Iraqi authorities just two days before Baghdadi was killed that he was in Idlib. She was told so by Abu Sabah.pic.twitter.com/oZk3wDpUCZ
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The report speaks of fitna before Baghdadi’s last appearance: Baghdadi’s disappearance led to serious clashes between ISIS foreigners & locals in Hajin. This was seen as a heavy blow to Baghdadi. $70m & a ton of gold gone missing in Jazira. A shepherd took $15m.
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Those in charge of Baghdadi’s security file were killed one by one, first his brother, then father-in-law, then Abu Sabah, then his brother-in-law. Baghdadi was killed soon after the killing of Abu Sabah and under the watch of his brother-in-law.
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Other hideouts in Syria were in Mayadeen, Albu Kamal, Hajin, Desheesha. Everywhere Baghdadi moved, there was a hideout for him. He met Baghdadi in those places. Previously, he used to hang out with his brother Abu Hazem, his father-in-law Abdullah al-Zoubai, and al-Muhajir.pic.twitter.com/DY5SGrHQM4
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He said Baghdadi trusted him. He asked him about the news of the Hajji (Abdullah Qardash) & Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir. He said they had it better in a nice hideout in Idlib.pic.twitter.com/KYGqh5MQUo
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The brother-in-law stayed with Baghdadi 13 days in Anbar. When they wanted to venture outside the hideout, Baghdadi would ask them to go before him, for about 20-30 minutes early, to listen in for any drones or planes before he came out.pic.twitter.com/jdShW1xVK2
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Baghdadi was with his brother-in-law, along with Abu Sabah (Baghdadi’s aide), Hajj Tayseer (in charge of Iraq), Abu Noah (courier), Abu Baraa. All wore suicide belts. There were worried and squeezed.
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Baghdadi’s security situation was worsening. He and ISIS leaders relied for their security on sheer herders, so when the security measures became more intensive there, shepherds had to leave the area, and that caused problems.
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Baghdadi’s brother-in-law said he lived a normal life with Baghdadi, in a 6mx8m hideout in the Anbar desert. Baghdadi spent time praying, reading the Quran, stretching, kept reminding him to be religious.pic.twitter.com/q0a8Do3pnB
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The report reveals that one of those present during
#Baghdadi’s last appearance was the spokesman Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, killed hours later in#Syria’s Jarablus. A profile picture was revealed in video. The April video was filmed in a 6mx8m tunnel hideout in Anbar desert.pic.twitter.com/nxCVzNmjlZ
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He led authorities to Baghdadi’s secret hideouts. One where the gun Baghdadi had to his side during his last appearance on camera. In the process, authorities killed several ISIS leaders, incl. one in charge of Mosul, Abu Noah. Hundreds of docs were found in Oct with US helppic.twitter.com/BUYLCxNNcj
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In the process of tracking him, several leaders were killed: His uncle & Baghdadi’s aide Abu Abdullah al-Zoubai. Ayub al-Zawi Abu Sabah, a courier for both Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi & his predecessor Abu Omar al-Baghdadi. Abu Ziyad al-Janabi, ISIS leader in Salah ad-Din.pic.twitter.com/g0Gjww5o7f
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He‘d been tracked for a month after he entered the Iraqi borders. Within a month, he was captured as he entered Baghdad wearing his suicide belt, carrying a message to cells in the capital.pic.twitter.com/VHd1WybaKm
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July 2019, Iraqi National Intelligence Service intercepts a person by the name of Mohammed Ali Sajet al-Zoubai, Baghdadi’s brother-in-law & close aide. He crossed into Iraq and was traveling under “Othman Ahmed Farhan.
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Fascinating details in this report with
#Baghdadi's brother-in-law about the hunt to the ISIS leader. Interesting insights on how ISIS used sheep herders to move around, and how these shepherds ended up stealing about $70m from an ISIS hideout: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTXItC6iotE … Thread:Show this thread -
The deputy head of Tunisia's Ennahda, Abdelfattah Mourou, says the decision to separate "the political from the religious" is something he called for in 1981, and his partly only responded to the call now.
#post_Islamismhttps://twitter.com/BBCArabic/status/1190678958942998528…
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
Protests in Iraq (gradually looking more like an uprising) started October 1st. Postponed for 3weeks to observe a religious ritual and resumed with a vengeance. That's all you need to know about who is protesting and their mentality.
#IraqProtestshttps://twitter.com/rashaalaqeedi/status/1188765007602958336… -
So this plan seems to go beyond Deir Ezzor and the main oilfields there, as explained at the top of this thread:pic.twitter.com/ixy2YTaECa
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All of the three Abrahamic religions emerged in that very region. That area has a proof of concept. It just needs to catch up with the rest of the world.pic.twitter.com/jVQnj7NdA3
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Of the top 10 oldest continually inhabited cities in the world, 7 are in what’s today the Arab world plus Israel. Only Lebanon has 3 & Syria has 2. All but one of the top 10 are in the Middle East. The top 20 feature 4 more cities in the region. Only Lebanon has 4. https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1190659836167348227 …pic.twitter.com/8PjR0HKUL7
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This is probably the most significant event at least since 2014. Perhaps an extension of that 2014 upheaval, or that one was a symptom of it, who knows! Either way it’s an expression of something deeper, and won’t end with the end of protests.
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(Do the extra work of editing if needed, rather than rely on outsiders who know how write in soundbites.)
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If I were an editor at
@washingtonpost@nytimes etc, I'd want to hear from Iraqis about what's going on, why now, what's the significance. Granular & long view. Like real, proper & diverse insights to explain this historic event. Baghdadi's death got at least 100x better coverageShow this thread -
Iraqi protests are probably the most remarkable regional event in half a decade, with remarkable implications. But it’s astonishing how under-reported they have been in mainstream media. pic.twitter.com/mTj6zmUXof good articles but truly amazing how this isn’t covered play by play.
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I'll name the other event later, but I bet nobody will guess it. It's one thing that the region never recovered from, much like some of the other events, and probably more insidiously so.
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(Perhaps the most important of them all)
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