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#Trump's withdrawal from the#Syria-#Turkey border is a catastrophe & a betrayal of 5yrs of hard work by@CJTFOIR & the#SDF. All the wrong actors win from this &#America loses -- my new post on@MiddleEastInst: https://www.mei.edu/blog/trump-paves-way-us-withdrawal-syria-and-all-will-follow …pic.twitter.com/GOgRuzLnWyShow this thread -
UPDATE: Looks like
#Hezbollah shot down an#Israel Air Force UAV flying over Nabatiyeh in southern#Lebanon. via@DavidKenner:https://twitter.com/Qudsn_Brk/status/1189883281401102336…0:27Show this thread -
BREAKING - reports of possible MANPADS use in southern
#Lebanon, and unverified claims of an#IAF aircraft downed. SAM trail, pictured here:pic.twitter.com/FOw7D8TnyJShow this thread -
This is key. When do the receipts begin, and do they all cite "Huras al-Din"? If there are receipts citing "HaD" through 2017, then their reliability is very questionable. HaD didn't begin to form until Nov/Dec-2017, amid an
#HTS arrest campaign targeting#AlQaeda loyalists.https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/1189875806471950337… -
Correction - HaD was not established until Jan 2018 & its existence was announced in Feb 2018. Do all the receipts say "Huras al-Din" on them? If they do, that's a **massive** red flag in terms of their unreliability.https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/1189870286755246080…
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#pt: And on the subject of the receipts, they're over a year old; they date to Aug '18. That was 6 months after Huras al-Din's creation - a formative period during which it's anti-#ISIS rhetoric was very strong. HaD was also led then by Abu Hammam al-Suri - who *detests*#ISIS.pic.twitter.com/0dO8ZMDfFUShow this thread -
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#pt: Aruri (Abu al-Qassam al-Urduni) is a committed hardliner, close to#AlQaeda's Sayf al-Adel. Until his arrest in#Iran in '03, Aruri was also one of Zarqawi's closest friends (he married Zarqawi's sister), having worked with him since the late-80s in#Jordan &#Afghanistan.Show this thread -
#pt: I was told recently that Huras al-Din's leadership has been restructured, in part to try to heal the Summer's "core" vs. "ultra-hardline" divisions. I believe (but can't 100% confirm) that Khalid al-Aruri is the new HaD leader - he's AQ "core" & 1 of 3 AQ global leaders.Show this thread -
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#pt: Some lead figures from this hardline Huras al-Din wing were expelled from HaD during a very public falling out with HaD's "core" leadership in June 2019, including: - Abu Dhar al-Masri - Abu Yahya al-Jazairi - Abu Amr al-Tunisi - Abu Yaman al-Wazzani - Abu Musab al-LibiShow this thread -
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As I said hours after the
#Baghdadi operation, I'd heard rumors that high-level#ISIS figures might have been working w. "ultra-hardline" members of#AlQaeda's Huras al-Din in#Idlib (& west#Aleppo). But that ≠ an official HaD policy - HaD's "core" is deeply hostile to#ISIS.https://twitter.com/jakesNYT/status/1189742642554429442…Show this thread -
Charles Lister Retweeted
This article exemplifies the problems inherent across much of US policy on
#Syria. After yrs of trumpeting the "diversity" of the#SDF, rhetoric now is exclusively about "#Kurds." In this entire article, "Arabs" are not mentioned once, despite allegedly being 50%+ of the force.https://twitter.com/brett_mcgurk/status/1189307605140815872…Show this thread -
Wow - Jim Jeffrey's detractors (in & out of USG) are working hard to control the
#Syria narrative. To claim Jeffrey didn't grasp the#Turkey-#PKK issue is absurd. He understood the dangers better than most & took more serious steps to deal with them than any of his predecessors.https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1189646148077871105… -
Charles Lister Retweeted
end of fiscal year work book buy:
@mike_giglio@ColinPClarke@dbyman@Charles_Lister@BarakMendelsohn@hxhassan@michaeldweiss some old, some newpic.twitter.com/NH2eToLncFShow this thread -
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BREAKING -
#ISIS's high-level media channel, al-Furqan, says an announcement is forthcoming. -#Baghdadi news & successor announcement, I'd assume.pic.twitter.com/R0RLuI8Eo5Show this thread -
"The US has a partner in eastern
#Syria — provided it has the will" -@BASSAMVA suggests that as the US adapts to new realities in#Syria, it's primary ally is now the Arab tribes east of the#Euphrates: https://www.mei.edu/publications/us-has-partner-eastern-syria-provided-it-has-will …pic.twitter.com/kX18bvTC1b -
As time passes & events on the ground evolve, the terms of a
#Russia-facilitated#SDF-#Assad deal are becoming clear - they've been pitched by#Damascus before, including: -#SDF dissolve into#Syria Army (#SAA) - Asayish dissolve into Interior Ministry https://ar.rt.com/mmsp pic.twitter.com/GJ28QB1lLe -
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#pt: There's a reason#Turkey was determined to launch an incursion between Tel Abyad & Ras al-Ayn: it's an established, Arab-majority region. See this map, for e.g. Arabs are no doubt fleeing from the#TSK &#SNA - so why limit our shock & concern only to areas's slim minority?pic.twitter.com/0d2PPP0o8VShow this thread -
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Frustrating to see disingenuous attacks on
@MustafaSejari, a man who's fought#ISIS - including with U.S. DOD - since 2014. In a lengthy article, he lists off conspiracies that drive much of the 'Arab street', then asserts they're *wrong.* READ IT ALL: http://nedaa-sy.com/articles/648?fbclid=IwAR1Uh87r_ki9olP56FutAYgdoLMrtPDSDna8UkZD5LI_qfsVyq_xwPi17y0 …pic.twitter.com/RllOG437IG -
Just finished a fascinating 4 days with
@MunSecConf in#Cairo &#Doha, exploring security challenges in#Africa; conflict in#Libya,#Yemen &#Syria; cyber & energy security; & arms proliferation. Lots of problems, but good to debate solutions. Thanks@ischinger for the invite! -
Charles Lister Retweeted
My brief take - written last night - about
#Baghdadi's death in#Idlib & what it likely means for the future of#ISIS in the Levant: https://www.mei.edu/blog/baghdadis-death-major-victory-it-wont-spell-end-isis …pic.twitter.com/xds9003IGDShow this thread -
Charles Lister Retweeted
Reading this thread about Baghdadi... so interesting.https://twitter.com/charles_lister/status/1188242464416714752…
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Charles Lister Retweeted
All of the necessary ingredients for an ISIS resurgence remain prevalent in Iraq and especially in Syria, writes
@Charles_Listerhttps://bit.ly/31WSzh0 -
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NEW - A 3rd U.S. helicopter-borne raid (targeting an
#ISIS HVT) took place this evening near#Jarablus, in#Turkey-administered northern#Aleppo. Locals say a man & several children were taken away. Follows U.S. strikes in#Jarablus last night.https://twitter.com/Kyruer/status/1188896102373830659…0:29Show this thread -
Charles Lister Retweeted
MEI Insights:
#Baghdadi’s death is a major victory, but it won’t spell the end of#ISIS |@Charles_Lister says Baghdadi's death is "one of the biggest counter-terrorism achievements of the 21st century," but the terrorist group will continue without him. https://buff.ly/2MWhmhb pic.twitter.com/u5sB1fLq5C -
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All sources on the “
#ISIS wanted to go to#Idlib” trace back to the#SDF - a movement that has every interest in painting#Idlib as one-&-same as#ISIS territory. Except that#Idlib isn’t/wasn’t that at all - NW#Syria has been deeply hostile to#ISIS since 2014. Makes no sense.https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/1188521313192812546…Show this thread -
This brilliant piece by
@martinchulov highlights especially#Iraq's role in finding#Baghdadi, co-opting a smuggler who moved relatives to#Idlib. Joint#Iraq-US intel work then concluded#Baghdadi was living with a Huras al-Din/#AlQaeda (HaD) commander. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/27/nowhere-left-to-run-how-the-us-finally-caught-up-with-isis-leader-baghdadi …pic.twitter.com/uHXq9OcxmYShow this thread -
#HTS seem to have been on#Baghdadi's trail - they captured "Abu Suleiman al-Khalidi" a few months ago - 1/3 men sitting w. him on his recent video (filmed in#Idlib). I believe this is him, pictured. An#HTS raid in#Sarmin in August was thought to target#Baghdadi, but failed.https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1188703493537841154…