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  1. Pinned Tweet

    's withdrawal from the - border is a catastrophe & a betrayal of 5yrs of hard work by & the . All the wrong actors win from this & loses -- my new post on :

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  2. UPDATE: Looks like shot down an Air Force UAV flying over Nabatiyeh in southern . via :

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  3. BREAKING - reports of possible MANPADS use in southern , and unverified claims of an aircraft downed. SAM trail, pictured here:

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  4. This is key. When do the receipts begin, and do they all cite "Huras al-Din"? If there are receipts citing "HaD" through 2017, then their reliability is very questionable. HaD didn't begin to form until Nov/Dec-2017, amid an arrest campaign targeting loyalists.

  5. Correction - HaD was not established until Jan 2018 & its existence was announced in Feb 2018. Do all the receipts say "Huras al-Din" on them? If they do, that's a **massive** red flag in terms of their unreliability.

  6. : Having worked on Huras al-Din, & in for 8yrs, I can confidently say there's no chance HaD was institutionally cooperating with . Virtually impossible. Could HaD individuals have taken money under the table? Sure. , people have too.

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  7. : And on the subject of the receipts, they're over a year old; they date to Aug '18. That was 6 months after Huras al-Din's creation - a formative period during which it's anti- rhetoric was very strong. HaD was also led then by Abu Hammam al-Suri - who *detests* .

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  8. : Some might argue that Khalid al-Aruri (on behalf of ) might have seen an opportunity to shelter leaders, to control/subsume/manipulate a vulnerable . But I wouldn't buy that. Not without a great deal more evidence. And not just some shady receipts...

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  9. : Aruri (Abu al-Qassam al-Urduni) is a committed hardliner, close to 's Sayf al-Adel. Until his arrest in in '03, Aruri was also one of Zarqawi's closest friends (he married Zarqawi's sister), having worked with him since the late-80s in & .

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  10. : I was told recently that Huras al-Din's leadership has been restructured, in part to try to heal the Summer's "core" vs. "ultra-hardline" divisions. I believe (but can't 100% confirm) that Khalid al-Aruri is the new HaD leader - he's AQ "core" & 1 of 3 AQ global leaders.

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  11. : When reading the story citing receipts, bear in mind that captured documents by themselves are only one piece of a very complex puzzle. The animosity between "core" Huras al-Din & has been very real - there's years of bad blood. That's hard to reverse.

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  12. : We know a Huras al-Din commander, ID'd as Abu Mohammed al-Halabi/Abu al-Bara'a, was killed during the op. But little else is known about him. I'd posit that he wasn't "core" HaD, but a member of this "ultra-hardline" wing. Possibly an AQI/ISI vet too.

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  13. : The intriguing angle here, which may/may not have a nexus to leads on 's location is the June 30 US strike on Huras al-Din. That strike targeted the "ultra-hardline" HaD wing, killing Abu Dhar, Abu Yahya & Abu Amr. The had clearly penetrated this wing.

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  14. : Some lead figures from this hardline Huras al-Din wing were expelled from HaD during a very public falling out with HaD's "core" leadership in June 2019, including: - Abu Dhar al-Masri - Abu Yahya al-Jazairi - Abu Amr al-Tunisi - Abu Yaman al-Wazzani - Abu Musab al-Libi

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  15. : Huras al-Din has long struggled to contain a minority "ultra-hardline" contingent who, amongst other things: - Pronounce takfir on - Call for war vs inside - Issued fatwas against fighting in north - Led program to rescue wives/kids

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  16. As I said hours after the operation, I'd heard rumors that high-level figures might have been working w. "ultra-hardline" members of 's Huras al-Din in (& west ). But that ≠ an official HaD policy - HaD's "core" is deeply hostile to .

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  17. Retweeted

    This article exemplifies the problems inherent across much of US policy on . After yrs of trumpeting the "diversity" of the , rhetoric now is exclusively about "." In this entire article, "Arabs" are not mentioned once, despite allegedly being 50%+ of the force.

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  18. Wow - Jim Jeffrey's detractors (in & out of USG) are working hard to control the narrative. To claim Jeffrey didn't grasp the - issue is absurd. He understood the dangers better than most & took more serious steps to deal with them than any of his predecessors.

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  20. leader Abu Bakr al- was an evil, barbaric man & his death in is a moment to celebrate. BUT the scale of ’s murder pales in comparison to ’s - the numbers speak for themselves, take a look:

  21. BREAKING - 's high-level media channel, al-Furqan, says an announcement is forthcoming. - news & successor announcement, I'd assume.

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  22. "The US has a partner in eastern — provided it has the will" - suggests that as the US adapts to new realities in , it's primary ally is now the Arab tribes east of the :

  23. As time passes & events on the ground evolve, the terms of a -facilitated - deal are becoming clear - they've been pitched by before, including: - dissolve into Army () - Asayish dissolve into Interior Ministry

  24. : We 100% *should* be shocked, concerned & condemning 's incursion & the crimes clearly associated with it. But for God's sake, let's acknowledge the [ethnic] diversity (& complexity) of the situation - not exacerbate the simplicity that got us here in the 1st place.

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  25. : There's a reason was determined to launch an incursion between Tel Abyad & Ras al-Ayn: it's an established, Arab-majority region. See this map, for e.g. Arabs are no doubt fleeing from the & - so why limit our shock & concern only to areas's slim minority?

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  26. : Are components of the not worth protecting? Do they not also deserve help with refugee claims in ? Or were they just a cover all along? **4 million** Sunni Arabs have been brutally killed or exiled from since 2011. Where's the recognition of that?

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  27. : There's no doubt the played *the* key role in commanding & leading the fight vs. ; they deserve huge praise for that. But to see officials who *always* stressed the diverse nature of the they created now blanket ignore all but the ... it speaks volumes.

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  28. Frustrating to see disingenuous attacks on , a man who's fought - including with U.S. DOD - since 2014. In a lengthy article, he lists off conspiracies that drive much of the 'Arab street', then asserts they're *wrong.* READ IT ALL:

  29. Just finished a fascinating 4 days with in & , exploring security challenges in ; conflict in , & ; cyber & energy security; & arms proliferation. Lots of problems, but good to debate solutions. Thanks for the invite!

  30. Retweeted

    My brief take - written last night - about 's death in & what it likely means for the future of in the Levant:

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  31. Retweeted

    Reading this thread about Baghdadi... so interesting.

  32. Retweeted

    All of the necessary ingredients for an ISIS resurgence remain prevalent in Iraq and especially in Syria, writes

  33. : "hiding in plain sight" close to the border in , in hardline territory, might have been sufficient cover for not to have known. But if senior HVTs have been hiding out in , that's genuinely damning.

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  34. NEW - A 3rd U.S. helicopter-borne raid (targeting an HVT) took place this evening near , in -administered northern . Locals say a man & several children were taken away. Follows U.S. strikes in last night.

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  35. Retweeted

    MEI Insights: ’s death is a major victory, but it won’t spell the end of | says Baghdadi's death is "one of the biggest counter-terrorism achievements of the 21st century," but the terrorist group will continue without him.

  36. : No doubt some fled to pockets in the last 1-2yrs, but an en mass transfer from eastern was extraordinarily unlikely. It would have been attacked/decimated on arrival. has killed 100s in 18 months. wives & family is another issue, however.

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  37. All sources on the “ wanted to go to ” trace back to the - a movement that has every interest in painting as one-&-same as territory. Except that isn’t/wasn’t that at all - NW has been deeply hostile to since 2014. Makes no sense.

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  38. This brilliant piece by highlights especially 's role in finding , co-opting a smuggler who moved relatives to . Joint -US intel work then concluded was living with a Huras al-Din/ (HaD) commander.

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  39. seem to have been on 's trail - they captured "Abu Suleiman al-Khalidi" a few months ago - 1/3 men sitting w. him on his recent video (filmed in ). I believe this is him, pictured. An raid in in August was thought to target , but failed.