Hassan HassanVerified account
@hxhassan
Director of nonstate actors program, Center for Global Policy. NYT Bestselling Author http://goo.gl/gkRJ0u . Contributing writer, @TheAtlantic @ForeignPolicy @Guardian.
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My new piece in
@nytimes on what Baghdadi’s killing means for the Islamic State and beyond:https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/opinion/isis-baghdadi-bin-laden.html…Show this thread -
Hassan Hassan Retweeted
My piece on Lebanon and US policy, written for the Center for Global Policy
@cglobalpolicy which has been producing superb, disciplined analysis. Protests Complicate Lebanon's Chronic Fragilityhttps://www.cgpolicy.org/articles/protests-complicate-lebanons-chronic-fragility/… -
From
@faysalitani on the Lebanese protests: “Protests Complicate Lebanon’s Chronic Fragility”https://www.cgpolicy.org/articles/protests-complicate-lebanons-chronic-fragility/… -
Just in. ISIS media outlet, which usually limits its productions to news about its leader or spokesman and top-level events, is announcing something soon.pic.twitter.com/yNqLggv0UB
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
@ColinPClarke and @AmarAmarasingam in @ForeignPolicy on the ISIS leader’s death and the fate of ISIS’ global branches.https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/28/isis-baghdadi-death-islamic-state-affiliates-more-independent/… -
Hassan Hassan Retweeted
Is this still an unpopular opinion?https://twitter.com/RashaAlAqeedi/status/1172831549609381893…
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I have *no* idea what I’m talking about. Yes of course. Anybody has any tips about how to dive into documents to inform myself about these groups and how they operate in the real world?https://twitter.com/thomasjoscelyn/status/1189528991281139713…
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Anyway that’s an example of why this field is flawed. As a rule of thumb, don’t rely on the following without the expertise to twangulate and critically examine or compare evidence: Documents. Testimonies on the go. Telegram. Twitter. And so on.https://twitter.com/mosuleye/status/1189524384689643520?s=21…
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Documents don’t speak. Bin Laden was watching events from afar, mostly relying on commentary from Arab pundits on Al Jazeera. He was not steering events. He wasn’t sending a bunch of men to neighboring countries even before locals who rebelled against regimes organized militias.
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That’s the same as Max here lecturing
@MosulEye who saw it all first hand about ISIS, using “social science” (he seems to misunderstand or appropriate the evidence). The easy way to look at this is to understand how their roles were reflected on the ground. (Continued..)pic.twitter.com/qpfRnlMo7m
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Another reason why documents may misinform without actual expertise. Of course Bin Laden appointed deputies/staff to his “central” org (AQ Central), but had zero role to play on the ground. He was incomparable to Baghdadi who was “commanding” a group day-to-day across the region.https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/1189422183698878464…
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No, this is about the facts that even the Ottomans apparently acknowledged and documentedhttps://twitter.com/memdybdy/status/1189494810329042944?s=21…
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
Excellent op-ed by
@hxhassan: How to Really Make the Death of ISIS’s Leader Bigger Than Bin Laden’shttps://nyti.ms/2JtTwHr -
5 Reasons ISIS Is Hanging On https://politi.co/2qXFCXH via
@politico -
Remarkable indeed: The Ottomans arrested 300 Young Turk officials, presented evidence of organized effort, published it in the official gazette, called perpetrators “butchers of men”, who made direct orders to exterminate the entire Armenian population.https://twitter.com/mazmhussain/status/1189350591069327360…
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On Telegram, a jihadist asks if it was “timed” or “coincidence” that: Zarqawi was killed by the Bush administration Osama bin Laden was killed by the Obama administration Baghdadi was killed by the Trump administrationpic.twitter.com/1fcNj7MK0k
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
From
@NewsHour Monday, smart takes on#Baghdadi killing & what comes now -@nickschifrin reported https://to.pbs.org/2BSYx8e then spoke w/@hxhassan &@MikeLeiterhttps://to.pbs.org/2ovfdQ4 -
According to the new control-the-oil-plan for Syria, the United States will stay in Syria along the whole Syrian-Iraqi borders from al-Malikiyah to Tanf, in Hasakah, Deir Ezzor (and the Syrian Desert). So: Protect-the-oil = borders & hydrocarbons = ISIS, Assad, Iran.pic.twitter.com/rf9PRBK4E1
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Needless to say, that also excludes the strip of land near the Turkish borders that are now run by Russia and Turkey (see the map to the left). Also note the major oilfield of Remailan, near the NE corner of Hasakah. That hasn’t been taken by the regime.pic.twitter.com/qjH9ar3lWi
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My understanding: Trump’s new protect-the-oil plan in
#Syria encompasses the border governorates of Deir Ezzor and Hasakah near Iraq, besides the Tanf base near Jordan. Raqqa, the only remaining area under the US control, its fate is yet unclear. The US will likely give it up.Show this thread -
The areas included in the plan are really the most critical if the idea is to focus on the threats as perceived by the US. All of them are served by denying terrain to Assad & Co. The big one will be the airspace. After Baghdadi & Idlib, it’ll be odd to see the US leaving that.
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Trump approved a plan to keep US troops in Syria to “protect the oil” but nobody has thus far explained what it means geographically. Will it be just around oilfields? Which ones? Deir Ezzor or all the way to Remailan field in al-Malikiyah in NW Hasakah? Raqqa? I have the news:
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(He’s an example of many such cases where anything they write and tweet get a lot of play, but their commentary is 60-percent superficial and 40-percent wrong. What’s worse, many similarly-clueless high-profile individuals reinforce it with their “fascinating”, “must-read” etc.)
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This “academic” Max Abdahms is great at positioning himself as the anti-establishment clear-headed expert, even though his commentary is simply idiotic & wrong. Like, I understand how this method appeals to those who don’t watch things closely but it’s really just idiotic.pic.twitter.com/p6T83sgtfb
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A mistake to conflate being a jihadi radical with being strictly/rigidly religious. Baghdadi’s post-Bucca violent extremism ain’t the same as berating a friend for getting a tattoo & calling it a violation of Islamic law, or reprimanding someone for smoking. Too basic.https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/1188535579111313408…
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
Love this. Being circulated on social media in
#Lebanon.pic.twitter.com/4VwDdvffcK
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
When will Islamic State break its silence on its leader’s death, what do we know about the successor and what thorny issues face the transition? Some questions we try to answer in this piece.https://twitter.com/bbcmonitoring/status/1189166611921551361…
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With my comments IS leader’s death ushers in new phase for the grouphttps://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/is-leaders-death-ushers-in-new-phase-for-the-group/2019/10/28/1a3a7adc-f9e2-11e9-9e02-1d45cb3dfa8f_story.html…
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
i have declassified my lunch: it was a salad. the dressing remains classified.
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
A US official just confirmed to me that Trump was indeed referring to ISIS spox Abu Hasan al-Muhajir.
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If you’re in town next Tuesday, come to this panel of mine: Tue, November 5, 2019 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM EST https://www.eventbrite.com/e/after-the-us-withdrawal-whats-next-for-russia-and-turkey-in-syria-tickets-78062096833 …pic.twitter.com/A3D19bGbEV
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
How to Really Make the Death of ISIS’s Leader Bigger Than Bin Laden’s: If the U.S. plays its cards right, it could fundamentally weaken the Islamic State. By the always incisive,
@hxhassan.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/opinion/isis-baghdadi-bin-laden.html… -
Hassan Hassan Retweeted
Read
@hxhassan, one of the top experts on ISIS and its ilk. As he warns: “Some of the Islamic State’s members will be demoralized by Mr. al-Baghdadi’s death, but many will be reinvigorated by the idea of revenge...”https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1188833561023004672… -
Hassan Hassan Retweeted
"The Conditions That Created ISIS Still Exist" my latest for
@ForeignPolicy on al-Baghdadi's killing, Islamist extremism, and authoritarianismhttps://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/28/conditions-created-isis-still-exist-middle-east-authoritarianism/… -
He means the only other public face/voice of the organization. It’s a big deal, but Abdul Hassan al-Muhajir couldn’t have been the replacement.https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1189172468159864832…
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What’s your
#workplace like these days?pic.twitter.com/e1REcse00h
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Hassan Hassan Retweeted
Very good by
@hxhassan: Opinion | How to Really Make the Death of ISIS’s Leader Bigger Than Bin Laden’s - The New York Timeshttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/opinion/isis-baghdadi-bin-laden.html… -
Hassan Hassan Retweeted
"The Islamic State is now an organization that has lost its caliphate and its caliph within the space of several months," writes
@hxhassan. "The United States has a small window to keep up the pressure" and fundamentally weaken the group.https://nyti.ms/2Nhu60M -
Hassan Hassan Retweeted
Highly recommended: This insightful op-ed, by
@hxhassan, on the follow-up that will be necessary to translate the Baghdadi op’s tactical success into strategic effects. Real talk.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/opinion/isis-baghdadi-bin-laden.html…
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