Hassan HassanVerified account

Both operated in areas supposedly controlled by Turkey. I said it before, those areas are the best hope for ISIS to revive itself, both logistically & in terms of manpower. It’s probably akin to the situation post-Surge in Iraq. Same for al-Qaeda. Trump allowed Turkey to invade.

It’ll be a heavy hit for ISIS if its spkmesman was also killed. One imagines they would‘ve assigned him to deliver the news to followers, with news about a new leader. They’ll have to come up with a new spokesman and a new leader. Likely an Arab spokesman & an Iraqi leader.

This news of another operation targeting the 2nd most visible/public figure within ISIS seems to be v credible. It makes sense that his location was known to whoever was with Baghdadi. A similar pattern of one killing leading to another played out in 2016https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1188502007293739008?s=21 …

Preciselyhttps://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1188503968386813952 …

Hmm The SDF’s commander now says another operation near Jarablus, in the Turkish-controlled Euphrates Shield zone, targeted the spokesman of ISIS Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir. He says the operation was in coordination between his group and the US.https://twitter.com/mazloumabdi/status/1188499723398856704?s=21 …

The SDF has bowed to the agreement between Russia & Turkey. It formally started withdrawal from the zone agreed by Putin & Erdogan. So the SDF has now accepted the reality as dedicated by Russia/Turkey & the US, agreeing to the Turkish plan and to the US “guard the oil” plan.

Nibras & a handful of watchers are the ones to hear from on what Baghdadi’s death & other big events really mean. Real “Must read”. A reminder that the public sphere is dominated by half-wits supported by their half-wit cliques. The price is always dumb takes on historic moments.https://twitter.com/imarawatijara/status/1188462068057411584 …

Definitely a day of celebration for the thousands of ordinary people in Iraq & Syria bereaved by the savages of ISIS. Many families thought they’d never get justice. May ISIS & its brethern in Nusra & al-Qaeda never return to brutalize or help oppressors:https://twitter.com/alialleile/status/1188467387886198785?s=21 …

If there is footage of Baghdadi freaking out, American officials will be foolish to sit on it. Release it sooner than later. That’ll be huge, ISIS often pointed out how footage of al-Zarqawi was meant to demoralize his followers (indirectly suggesting it could have.)

The possibilities are numerous, but my forecast for what’ll happen: • Reinvigorated, not demoralized, ISIS in Iraq & Syria. • A new leader won’t assume the same role. • ISIS will maintain its foreign affiliates largely intact. • ISIS will become even more local-focused.

Eyes should be on ISIS affiliates beyond Iraq & Syria. What will happen to those affiliates? They *might* be less loyal to a new leader? Its core operatives in Iraq & Syria have leaders who’ll keep them organized & active. It’ll take time to fully recover from Baghdadi’s death.

And Turkey, of course. The list and recent events suggest the work was mostly done by Syria, Russia and Turkey. Iraq & SDF probably verified ID/DNA & provided early tips about his movement. Expect an offensive in Idlib soon, a huge support for Assad.https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1188447909529808897?s=21 …

So, indeed many countries were involved in helping the US target Baghdadi. Russia, Syria, Iraq, and the Kurds helped in a “certain way.”

Also, ISIS is demonstrating its inability to seize a series of openings and events in critical areas in Iraq and Syria. At this point, it is not as we have been reading and suspecting. It’s slow at grabbing opportunities & has been failing, with numerous major blunders.

So, in other words, operationally the killing of the leader of the most savage jihadist organization in history could be a lot more consequential than the killing of a terrorist leader far away from his followers & fat detached from their day-to-day reality. We can celebrate big.