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A serious and basic point to keep in mind: Turkey's priority is to dismantle the YPG statelet, so it's not a horrible idea for it if the Assad regime takes over Kurdish areas. So if Russia and the regime take areas, that still works for Turkey. But Turkey has conditions.https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1183424157398323201 …
Turkey had that talk with Russia before it fought in Afrin last year, the YPG pleaded with Russia to save them from the imminent Turkish incursion & even asked Assad to fight with it. But the two sides didn't agree on specifics. Turkey wasn't convinced Russia would do the trick.
This time might be different. Turkey will be happy to have Russia and the regime take over Kurdish areas, as long as they ensure the YPG won't find safe havens. That's another part where short-termist & de-contextualized thinking about the battles in Raqqa etc failed.
The YPG loses its political project with these deals with Russia and the regime, but they at least ensure Turkey don't destroy or empty out their areas. It's the smart thing to do. This is on the US and Turkey, for ordinary Syrians.
Despite assertions about complete US withdrawal, it's still *unclear* what the fate of the other areas, east of the Euphrates river and south of the prospective Turkish zone, will be. We shall wait and see on that one. Take any assertions with a pinch of salt for now.
This is now about soft landing. If the US stays it’ll be with an entirely different mandate, focused on rapid response to the Islamic State and the Islamic Republic.https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1183415829511262208?s=21 …
As if Trump gave the green light for Russia to take over Syria. The rest is detail, about who of Russia's friends operates where. Russia is now the best hope for Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Israel. Putin is in Saudi Arabia. So that's a symbolic day through and through.
So, the Syrian regime with elements loyal to Russia is set to enter #Qamashli, #Deir_Ezzor, and #Manbij. Whatever happens next, locals will turn to either the Syrian regime or Turkey anyway.
Folks, this is about the redrawing of the whole Syrian map. Turkey is happy to let the Syrian regime take over Kurdish areas, and happy to offer Idlib as a sacrifice. It’s shambles, in the *literal* sense of the word. https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1183459811771518977?s=21 …
The biggest irony is that the YPG could have traded all those Arab-majority areas with some form of local autonomy (de-centralization rather). But they lost everything because the US told them they’d stay. Now they can’t trade anything, and can only prevent the worst — genocide.
Those who long advocated a US withdrawal from Syria and some kind of reconciliation with the regime, alas, that’s the result. Turkey and Russia sorted it out their way.
Had the US used locals to recapture Raqqa, Hasaka and Deir Ezzor from ISIS, the process today would not have been mere handover of areas to the Assad regime. In such a scenario, those areas would still be a formidable fight for Assad even if the US leaves. A la Idlib.
Btw I completely see the logic of letting the Syrian regime take over given the reality of US politics/policy. Part of me always thought the regime would have to return to these areas at some point anyway, but I thought there was a chance to build new facts before that happens.
Question for those of us who were not following this closely before the incursion: what were the Kurds ideal endgame? Where they planning on annexing that part of Syria to make a homeland?
I think creating ministatelet in syrian northeast. So that together with iraqis north (already in place), turkey southeast, and iran northwest (both in progress) they could form unified kurdistan. Untenable i think, but there you go...
Yeah for sure it was a bit unrealistic with no resolution with Turkey. Another thing I’m interested in - who are these Turkish-backs Syrian fighters and where did they come from? Seem to have come out of nowhere.
yes indeed. Once the SAA is in place, I think the Russians will broker a negotiation between the regime and the Turks, to everyone's mutual satisfaction. The Americans and their allies have been defeated. Now the victors can divide the spoils.
Anything other than direct Turkish control at this point doesn't work for Turkey. Assad and Russia will eventually use the PKK against Turkey when they need. Anything other than a direct Turkish control is a fiasco.
The Assad regime was the main sponsor of the PKK in the 80's and 90's. It is not the best of solutions if Assad takes over the border (Kurdish) areas and again starts nourishing them against Turkey. Only through ignoring past experience one could say it's not a horrible idea.
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