Hassan HassanVerified account
@hxhassan
Director of nonstate actors program, Center for Global Policy. NYT Bestselling Author http://goo.gl/gkRJ0u . Contributing writer, @TheAtlantic @ForeignPolicy @Guardian.
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The situation in Syria took a new turn today, and the upcoming mess is even more imminent. My new article on how precisely the Turkish incursion will help revive ISIS and unravel things beyond ISIS and its sleeper cells. Please read and share:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/13/trump-and-erdogan-risk-a-resurgent-isis-thanks-to-their-recklessness-in-syria …
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From August, Turkey not the Kurds are enabling Assad to take over areas outside the regime control. Turkey and its supporters have long accused the Kurds of intending to hand over areas to the regime. But history will record that they didn’t till Turkey & Russia did.pic.twitter.com/0fhSC7mHyv
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A hard truth... which was also obvious during the battles of Raqqa/Deir Ezzor, but has gotten lost in the noise. (If you don't follow
@hxhassan, you should.)https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1183432544307613696 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Take a moment to consider this now probable scenario: Jabhat al-Nusra, now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, *could* soon be the last flag under which Syrians fight against the Assad regime, their No. 1 cause, or be outside its control. Soon = foreseeable future
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Folks who are happy this is the end of the Syrian war are mistaken. This is an unraveling. As I argue in my article today for
@guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/13/trump-and-erdogan-risk-a-resurgent-isis-thanks-to-their-recklessness-in-syria …pic.twitter.com/0NKapgcbkr
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Had the US used locals to recapture Raqqa, Hasaka and Deir Ezzor from ISIS, the process today would not have been mere handover of areas to the Assad regime. In such a scenario, those areas would still be a formidable fight for Assad even if the US leaves. A la Idlib.
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So Qamashli, perhaps the most strategic city for the Kurdish project in Syria, is gone.pic.twitter.com/fpF8iOOErO
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Many advocated for alliance with the YPG & then for the YPG to strike a deal with Assad & for the US to leave Syria. Little did they know that the US would leave but in a manner that favors Turkey & abandons the Kurds. A spectacle to see how they are reacting.
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Never heard that Iraq wanted to fight the Kurds in a different part of Syria. Is that Kirkuk (two years ago, ironically the same as today's fuckup) or the floated idea of Iraqis going to Deir Ezzor?https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183369132634456066 …
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Deir Ezzor is another low-hanging fruit. It's already proven a headache for the SDF, but then the regime runs a mess on the other side of the Euphrates river in the same province. And it's along the Syrian-Iraqi borders, where Shia militias are frequently hit by the US/Israel.
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The consequences of a walk in the park between
@BarackObama and Denis McDonough were staggering. #2013Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Manbij will obviously be the most likely place to be put under the control of Russia if the US won't want Turkey and its allied militants to be put in charge. The remaining areas, south of Qamashli and say Ain Issa will be the new American zone, all the way to the Iraqi borders
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I guess Russia might go to Qamashli -- that's the only area east of the Euphrates where the Syrian regime has some presence, a base. I reckon Turkey won't trust the regime being in its prospective zone on its own, and the regime won't leave that base. It would want Russia there.
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The unknown is where Turkey will go, and whether Russia will be put in charge of some of the areas instead of the regime. Some thoughts:
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Here is how I see the situation heading, regardless of the statement about the possibility of a "rapid" and "complete" U.S. withdrawal from eastern Syria.https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1183123278132662272 …
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If the US leaves Syria, that's a TRUE game changer. Game over for the US presence in Iraq and any idea of combating Iran in the region; Iran will completely control two of its Israel's borders. That's not to mention jihadists, and Turkish-Russian relations. Wishy-washy defined
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People get too excited and panicky pretty fast. Folks, relax. This is far more dangerous than you think. The US won’t just leave. I know, I know, this is crazy to say right now, given all the talk. But let’s see.https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1183404944851755008 …
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ISIS has just been given another lifeline, and not just in eastern Syria. The group will be back & renewed fighting will sooner or later erupt in the stronghold of other types of jihadists in NW Syria. Brace yourself for the next chapter:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/13/trump-and-erdogan-risk-a-resurgent-isis-thanks-to-their-recklessness-in-syria …
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The US is slowly but surely giving up on Afghanistan. The US has little choices in Iraq. The same more or less in Somalia, Libya, Yemen, Mali, Sinai, Syria.
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The writings on the wall with regard to the fight against jihadists. Trump & Obama have the same policy. Jihadists are entrenching themselves everywhere in the region. They're locally focused while the forces most capable of destroying them in the West are also turning inward.
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