It's very professional of @Elizrael to share this feedback, but I'm struggling to see what @aronlund's point is here... Pro-#Assad forces have been distinctly indiscriminate in their violence & #Russia's planes appear to be precision-targeting hospitals & schools.https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1176461988928643072 …
It was about a hypothetical post-capture situation, for which it makes sense to look at areas already retaken (while noting diffs & path-dependence). Retaken NW areas will be grimmer than, say, Deraa. But even in ex-IS Deir, Assad tries to rule the population, not exterminate it.
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That kind of reasoning should be handled with care. Even by the Bosnian War's ugly standards, the Srebrenica massacre was unprecedented, and it happened in the last months of a 3-year conflict.
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Yes, absolutely. There's potential for mass atrocities—after and beyond a military takeover—every time there's a violent shift of control, but Idleb would definitely be the scariest situation so far. Without even going into the scale of the humanitarian crisis that could follow.
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I think Deir isn't a great example because so few have returned and all of those who've returned are loyalist, but even in Ghouta or eastern Aleppo, the regime didn't exterminate and is instead relying on the police state to terrorize into submission largely successfully.
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I agree DZ isn't a great example, but it's worth looking at. You have people still in areas that changed hands, coming out of Rukban, etc. However, smaller population, SDF being a live competitor, the tribal factor, less outside attention to civilian welfare, etc. So: not great.
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Looking at reconstruction efforts shows how ghastly the conditions continue to be in E Aleppo or Ghouta - I hope to have a short report out on this soon (DM me if you want examples). Government is only present as far as intimidation, not anything like service provision.
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. seems a straw man. Assad has never literally set out to exterminate a whole population - indifference to civilian casualties isn't the same thing. Yet his *rule* managed to kill 100s of 1000s.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Extermination is Assad’s means of ruling.
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This is correct, and I never knew Aron to be particularly nit-picky over minor analytic details, and so these factors in unison seem to suggest that Aron is weaving a dichotomy between regime (state) and opposition (non-state) forces, and the effective brutality of each faction.
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