2019 is the year launches come into twos, it would seem. Candidates for this launch among the known new systems tested this year include the KN23, NK ATACMS, 400 mm MLRS, & 600 mm MLRS.
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2 “projectiles” into the East Sea from #NorthKorea.https://twitter.com/yonhaptweet/status/1171186988050866176 …
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That’d be confirmed “projectiles” #18 and #19 for 2019. (Possibly #19 & #20, but there’s some question about whether the May 4 test included two KN23s.)
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More data via
@joshjonsmith. A South Pyongan launch site hasn’t been featured so far this year.https://twitter.com/joshjonsmith/status/1171192587421663232 …Show this thread -
Inland means not Nampo (where they’d done Scud-C testing before and may choose to do new SLBM testing).
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South Pyongan is also home to Pyongsong and the March 16 Factory (where the Hwasong-15 was first testing). Nodongs/Hwasong-12 have also been tested from there before (Sunchon/Pukchang Airfields).
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That’s all I’ve got for now. Next, the usual drill: wait for range, apogee, time of flight, etc. Tomorrow, we’ll get pictures.
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I wouldn’t mind a few more pictures of the missile facilities at Pukchang though. I’m sure
@DaveSchmerler wouldn’t either.Show this thread -
This doesn’t necessarily mean anything particularly ominous, by the way. Kim’s MO since 2016 has been diversifying/rotating launch sites (okay, setting aside the fondness for Kalma/Hodo).https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1171193971042897921 …
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I’d expect this to be the 600 mm MLRS again just in terms of the divergent testing volumes this year. KN23 has seen 7 tests; 400 mm MLRS has seen 4 tests; the unnamed ATACMS lookalike has seen 4 tests; the 600 mm MLRS has seen 2 tests.
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And this comes right after Choe Son Hui opening the possibility for talks later this month.
@NarangVipin and I suggested North Korea was practicing its own form of “maximum pressure”; perhaps now it’s “maximum pressure and engagement.”https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2019-05-16/why-north-korea-testing-missiles-again …Show this thread -
Usually, diplomatic openings/active talks have coincided with a de facto moratorium on missile testing, because North Korea knows the US would complain. That may be changing given Trump’s extensive green-lighting across 9 separate test events before this.
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(Before someone jumps in, usually means not always: the short-range Toksa underwent testing in the lead up to the 2005 Six-Party Talks meetings—small potatoes since there was also a reprocessing campaign in 2005.)
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“Super-large” MLRS is the 600 mm system. They tested it on MET and this time apparently on a depressed trajectory.https://twitter.com/joshjonsmith/status/1171530274796007427 …
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I’m waiting to see if we’ll see a new launcher—perhaps an integrated, tracked TEL. If the launch used the airfield as
@JosephHDempsey convincingly argues, then we might see a similar/identical wheeled TEL.pic.twitter.com/N1XQAbslIC
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Will wait to see the Korean on this, but I wonder if this is a reference to a shoot-and-scoot operational test (“running”).https://twitter.com/joshjonsmith/status/1171531624086818816 …
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Why does that matter? North Korea knows the ROK-US alliance plans to rapidly respond with counterbattery fire; if they can shoot and move a 600 mm MRL-capable TEL quickly, that complicates counterbattery planning and improves launcher lifespans in a conflict.
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First images. 600 mm MLRS indeed. Kim Yo Jong is back and observing again, suggesting her role in military affairs is growing. We have what appears to be a wheeled TEL off-road.
#NorthKoreapic.twitter.com/Lqb9UJbIZK
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Kim’s been really into this soda/iced coffee beverage for his latest missile tests this year.pic.twitter.com/wN86kOxF59
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Renewed call to mass-produce: “He indicated immediate tasks and ways for putting the production of our style tactical guided weapons including super-large multiple rocket launcher on the highest level”
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Not quite as evocative as Kim wading ashore to watch a missile test, but here he is in the unkempt field—an attempt to portray his ruggedness.pic.twitter.com/wbra6SuGqm
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In the release, Kim Yo Jong’s name appears second after the KPA general staff head General Pak Jong Chon.https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1171534627304927235 …
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Uncensored cell phone again. Same case as earlier this summer.pic.twitter.com/4ocMLTNRMj
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More pictures of the latest 600 mm “super-large” MLRS test.pic.twitter.com/6KQickJzaR
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Three released in high resolution here, including the shot of the aft end of the canisters. Useful for mensuration.pic.twitter.com/g7OnqYfN3f
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As others have suggested, could also be an angle gauger/Inclinometer.
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