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A few potentially interesting dots to add to the Nyonoksa accident. We know that the Rosatom people who died worked at the KB-12 design bureau at VNIIEF. It's an interesting entity. Was set up in 2013, apparently by combining some KB-1 and KB-2 divisions 1/npic.twitter.com/T8n39xxfub
The word is that KB-12 was set up for a specific (and fairly big) project. Which seems to be the case - KB-12 was given the status that is (almost?) equal to that of other VNIIEF design bureaus - KB-1 (physical packages) and KB-2 (weapons) 2/npic.twitter.com/KRRcyh5RQl
It appears that the person who was put in charge of that project ("general designer of one of the themes and chief designer of the institute [VNIIEF] for coordination of the work on this theme") is Aleksandr Ivonin, who came from the Rosatom HQ 3/npic.twitter.com/4soOfSRAAk
It's interesting that Ivonin is not a nuclear physicist - his expertise appears to be in optics and in guidance and fusing systems (he has a number of patents on weapons and fusing). Note that the appointment was made by Kiriyenko 4/npic.twitter.com/xVXObDQPJV
Even more interesting is that he is also the acting director of MOKB-MARS design bureau (https://www.mokb-mars.ru/?page_id=2 ). It's a space design bureau, but in 2017 it was transferred to Rosatom. Among other things it works on "guidance systems for cruise missiles developed by Raduga" 5/npic.twitter.com/bmlEopCnrP
Raduga, of course, is the design bureau that developed the Kh-55 and Kh-101 cruise missiles, which Burevestnik, as shown on that video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okS76WHh6FI …, closely resembles 6/n
These dots appear to point in the direction of the Burevestnik theory. However, it's still not quite clear what was the scenario of the accident. I think there are still unresolved questions about the current working theory, the recovery operation (not to mention a live test) 7/7
The thread might be of interest - a few bits of information about KB-12 @PararamTadam @vpkivimaki
Interesting dots. Some people have suggested that Russia lost important talent in the accident. In any case, in view of the loss of life, might Russia now be willing to publicly end this program? If the US were to propose a permanent ban on reactor-propelled missiles or aircraft?pic.twitter.com/gNliX8FpoF
No, current Russian authorities definitely won't publicly end this program due to prestige and corruption reasons.
How does this program confer prestige at this point? Whoever is behind it must be in deep kaka. Face-saving way out would be to say, 'We have proven that it's possible, but our experience has shown that the risks are too great, so we want to take this opportunity for peace...'
These are search results for "accident Nyonoksa" in Russian on the websites of three major Russian TV channels. As you can see, the coverage there was literally non-existent. So there has been no accident for Putin's electoral base, and the missile is a great successpic.twitter.com/9W25etfRfh
That's not necessarily bad from the point of view that it leaves him free to do this for the international audience, because it's a program that has become a net liability, and to be able to claim a small, low-cost diplomatic victory.
A net liability for whom? For the defense industry (I can be more specific if you wish) is a very useful asset, and recall the corruption part. Also it's quite likely that Putin has been convinced that an unlimited-range missile is a very useful and desirable wonder weapon
It's an embarrassment, they can't even test it without having nuclear explosions. Contributes nothing to deterrence, really. Not recoverable/reusable. Operational headache. Must be ridiculously expensive per warhead delivered. Putin may not be a genius but he's not that stupid.
Have you seen the movie he showed to the Russian parliament last year? It's stated publicly that the missile is designed to mitigate US BMD. We can agree that BMD is not and is not going to be a real threat to deterrence, but Putin is definitely worried
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