Nassim Nicholas TalebVerified account

@nntaleb

Flaneur: focus on probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (logic),probability (reallife), deadlifts, Phoenician wine, dead languages.

realworldrisk.com
Joined September 2011
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  1. Retweeted
    4 hours ago

    Dr. Sagner and I are finalizing a paper on Uncertainty in Medicine, illustrated by the following two studies on treating mild HBP: One showing benefits and the other harm and a third discovering 396 medical reversals. How can lay people can deal with uncertainty?

    5 replies 12 retweets 42 likes
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  2. 1 hour ago

    My Principia Politica is not out yet. Yet its terminology is having some impact!

    13 replies 18 retweets 147 likes
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  3. 2 hours ago

    This is what people don't get: smaller states don't have minorities and majority rules eradicating them. Too much 19th century thinking. Actually France wanted Germany to be fragmented in 1945; they thought a Federation would be "weak".

    Replying to @nntaleb @EHSANI22
    That does not make sense at all, smaller ethnic city states will be consumed by stronger nations
    10 replies 17 retweets 52 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    4 hours ago

    The Mule: Clint Eastwood becomes cartel’s top drug deliverer by following haphazard schedule. But new guy takes over and makes him follow exact route and timetable. Immediately caught! Over-optimization leads to disaster!

    9 replies 42 retweets 281 likes
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  5. 5 hours ago

    Only works.

    17 replies 17 retweets 118 likes
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  6. 6 hours ago

    Ireland, Czeck Rep., Slovakia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Cyprus... People get along better as neighbors than as roommates. Time for Syrians to understand the large Nation-State with "grandeur" & prestige has failed them, destroyed minorities. Small is beautiful.

    31 replies 50 retweets 299 likes
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  7. 6 hours ago

    OK, incompetence wins over conspiracy. Always assume incompetence first. (There still may be some conspiracy.)

    58 replies 30 retweets 245 likes
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  8. 7 hours ago

    Syria should understand the notion of cutting the cancer & consider some partition East/West (currently taboo). You cannot spend the next decades taking then retaking Jihadi areas. ما حدا قسم و ندم!

    Syrian Army captures 2 towns near the jihadist stronghold in southern
    37 replies 17 retweets 154 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    Aug 16

    ‘Skin in the Game’ and ‘Fooled by Randomness’ by in Sofia, Bulgaria.

    6 replies 11 retweets 121 likes
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  10. 18 hours ago

    When you elect a bureaucrat to the presidency, you end up with someone who likes complicating your life with bureaucratic rules. When you elect a real estate dealmaker, you end up with someone who likes to do real-estate deals. Alas, a trade-off. But beats wars.

    President Trump has repeatedly asked aides if they can pursue a purchase of Greenland from Denmark. His interest in Greenland began in part because of its natural resources, like coal and uranium.
    100 replies 353 retweets 1,942 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    23 hours ago

    "Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments." -

    22 replies 164 retweets 692 likes
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  12. Aug 16

    And ignore statements about “math geniuses with High IQ”. 1- how many high IQ can do math? 2- Ramanujan, Groethendieck, Mandelbrot were horrrrrrrible at standardized tests... has a mystical link to math...

    36 replies 67 retweets 311 likes
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  13. Aug 16

    Reread and you will find it.

    2 replies 3 retweets 35 likes
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  14. Aug 16

    A metric that ONLY detects "below average" will show 80% correlation with performance. (corrected typos)

    7 replies 17 retweets 114 likes
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  15. Aug 16

    PROBABILITY DU JOUR A clearer presentation showing how a metric for disease can falsely masquerade as a metric for performance because "correlation" is not appropriate (and should NEVER be used) under nonlinearity. Something the Quillettebeciles don't get.

    9 replies 47 retweets 275 likes
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  16. Retweeted
    11 Jun 2018

    Taxi driver to Malta’s airport: Where are you flying to? Me: Palermo. Driver: vacation? Me: No. Meeting. Silence the rest of the journey.

    133 replies 355 retweets 2,522 likes
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  17. Retweeted
    Aug 15

    acts like it has a lot to hide. It had a 20-page plan on how to "minimize impact of" and "minimize media coverage and publicity of" 's book Whitewash, about Monsanto, and .

    3 replies 80 retweets 128 likes
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  18. Aug 15

    Meanwhile I’ve blocked trolls on both sides.

    At one time the Left thought Nassim Taleb was on their side. And at one time the Right thought he was on their side. Never did they realize that he has always been Outside.
    25 replies 35 retweets 476 likes
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  19. Aug 15

    Charles Murray is considered a Galileo of the racisticists, someone who provides scientific truths. He is just an intellectual fraud. These mistakes are on a SINGLE page in his book.

    23 replies 44 retweets 305 likes
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  20. Aug 15

    Andrew Gelman is the #1 BS buster in social science.

    Check out Gelmans "take down" of nudge boy Sunstein.
    5 replies 28 retweets 175 likes
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