Ömer Özkizilcik

Rumours in Idlib: - Many believe that the current situation is the result of the Astana process stating that the demilitarization zone will be established by the regime taking control of the line. - Others believe that HTS has make a deal with the regime to let them advance

- The NLF is still vehemently rejecting the idea of forcing civilians to build defensive lines or took up arms - The NLF is saying that they have significant losses of vehicles, but that they have reserves prepared

- If they agree to send huge numbers and via the direct central command of the National Army, a possible HTS rejection is being planned to become meaningless. - Meanwhile, the National Front for Liberation in Idlib is blaming HTS to put up a weak resistance

- After the initiative of activist requestions reinforcements from the National Army, the leaders of the 3 Corps are discussing to send reinforcements to fight the regime in Idlib. If a decision is being taken, the National Army will send fighters via the Corps, not factions

- When the factions of the National Army recently attempting to send fighters to Idlib, HTS rejected anyone from Sultan Murad, Firka Hamza, Sultan Suleyman Shah and Jaysh al Islam. A 20-people delegation of Jaysh al Islam to negotiate a free passage was imprisoned by HTS

- The National Army commanders are ready to send reinforcements with heavy armory to Idlib to stop the regime advance - HTS is only allowing Jabhat Shamiyah and Ahrar al Sharqiyyah to send reinforcements, but there numbers are limited.

Some updates about the current situation in Idlib from the perspective of the Syrian opposition - The defense lines collapsed. A new defense line is being established (I don't know where) - The opposition does not lack ATGMs but the regime changed tactics to avoid being targeted

The authorities need to take a significant step or the situation might escalate. If worst comes to worst, Turkish soldiers might get trapped in their obs point with the only supply route controlled by Assad. No one knows what kind of escalation might come from regime militias

The hard part will be the implementation of the agreement whose details are still unknown to the public. What will happen if the YPG attempts to sabotage the implementation? What kind of enforcement is ready? Delays or a stalemate may prompt a Turkish unilateral action.

First US soldier delegation consisting of a reported contingent of 90 soldier arrived in Şanlıurfa for the establishment of the joint operation room between #Turkey and the #US. Does anyone know whether it will be a #CENTCOM or #EUCOM command on the US side?

Eid mubarak عيد مبارك Kurban bayramımız mübarek olsun Frohes Opferfest

“It has nothing to do with the amount of American soldiers on the ground, but with the overall US strategy. Instead of short-term, ad hoc maneuvers, [Washington] needs a broader approach to the region. The US should listen to its partners that know the local people best.”

Özkizilcik argued that the US needs to “align its efforts with regional Sunni actors like Turkey which enjoy close ties with the Sunni populations in Iraq and Syria.” Moreover, he disagreed that the drawdown of American troops is responsible for the current predicament.

The main reason for this, he contended, "is that [ISIS'] extremist ideology wasn't defeated. In order to do so, the Islamic State needs to be fought by Sunni Arabs, but the US instead has worked with Shiite Arabs in Iraq and with a Marxist Kurdish terror group in Syria.”